Ethiopia Under Siege: Economic Triumphs Amid Threats from Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia – Why the U.S. and Nations Must Act Now!

Threats from Neighboring Countries

Despite its economic achievements, Ethiopia faces substantial threats from a strategic alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. This coalition appears intent on destabilizing Ethiopia through various means, including supporting insurgent groups and fostering internal conflict.

Ethiopia, an emblem of economic progress in Africa, has experienced swift advancements in infrastructure, industrial growth, and urbanization through its Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP). With an anticipated GDP growth rate between 6.2 and 7% in 2024, Ethiopia stands as one of the fastest-growing economies worldwide. However, this impressive development faces challenges from a coalition of neighboring nations—Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia—whose recent strategic alliance threatens Ethiopia's stability. My article examines Ethiopia's economic achievements, the risks posed by these adjacent countries, and the critical need for increased support from the United States and other nations to Ethiopia.

Ethiopia's Economic Achievements

Ethiopia's growth story is driven by significant achievements across various sectors:

1. Robust GDP Growth: Ethiopia's economy is forecasted to grow by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing many regional peers. This growth is fueled by multiple sectors:

• Agriculture: Contributing around 32% to the GDP, the agricultural sector is expected to expand by 4.7% in 2024 due to favorable weather conditions, privatization efforts, and government-led irrigation projects.
• Industry: The industrial sector, which makes up 29% of GDP, is seeing substantial growth driven by the expansion of manufacturing, investments in industrial parks, and improvements in transport infrastructure.

2. Fiscal Discipline: Ethiopia has achieved notable fiscal improvements, reducing its public debt from 54% of GDP in 2021 to a projected 31.2% in 2024. This fiscal discipline is a testament to effective debt management and economic policies (Capital Newspaper ).

3. Urban and Infrastructure Development: Large-scale urban development projects and investments in alternative energy sources, such as wind power, are set to boost energy production by 14% in 2024, further supporting Ethiopia's industrial and economic growth (Deloitte United States)

Threats from Neighboring Countries

Despite these achievements, Ethiopia faces significant external threats from a coalition of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, each with its own motivations for destabilizing Ethiopia.

1) Egypt: Navigating Regional Politics Amidst Domestic Turmoil

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt is navigating significant internal opposition and allegations of corruption. His administration's controversial policies, such as handling Palestinian refugees and adopting an aggressive stance in the Horn of Africa, raise questions about Egypt’s regional intentions. El-Sisi’s government appears to be leveraging regional instability to distract from its domestic challenges, presenting an inclusive agenda that may attract attention away from internal issues.

Egypt’s intervention in Somalia, intended to promote regional peace and security, has instead heightened regional tensions. However, this moves signals a shift towards a more assertive role for Cairo in African affairs and diplomacy after decades of disengagement. May or may not true. Egypt's renewed engagement in Africa, particularly its stance on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), underscores its strategic efforts to pressure Addis Ababa into an agreement and protect its national security interests.

Cairo perceives Ethiopia’s potential access to the Red Sea as a national security threat that could destabilize maritime trade in the vital waterway. In the midst of a profound economic crisis, Egypt’s significant foreign policy maneuvers are crucial for averting economic default and stabilizing the nation. By adopting a proactive foreign policy, Egypt aims to bolster its regional influence and secure its economic recovery.

2) Eritrea,

Eritrea, governed by the authoritarian President Isaias Afwerki, is characterized by a stark absence of democratic institutions. There are no national elections, no functioning parliament, and no mechanisms for political pluralism or public accountability. When asked about the possibility of elections in Eritrea, President Afwerki’s dismissive response, “What election?” underscores the regime's entrenched autocracy and disregard for democratic norms.

The internal dynamics of Eritrea are marked by severe repression. The government maintains strict control over all aspects of political and social life, including severe restrictions on freedom of speech, press, assembly, and religion. Arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearances, and extensive surveillance are tools routinely employed to stifle dissent and maintain control.

Externally, Eritrea's aggressive posture is equally troubling. The regime has a history of militaristic interventions and confrontations with its neighbors, most notably Ethiopia. This external aggression, coupled with its internal repressive policies, significantly destabilizes the region. The persistent conflict and hostility between Eritrea and Ethiopia have implications for regional security, economic development, and humanitarian conditions, exacerbating an already volatile situation in the Horn of Africa.

In summary, Eritrea under President Isaias Afwerki is a state marked by authoritarian rule, systemic internal repression, and aggressive foreign policies, all of which pose a substantial threat to the stability and security of Ethiopia and the broader region.

3. Somalia: Somalia's ongoing struggle with instability, largely due to the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab, undermines regional security. Ethiopia's military efforts have been crucial in curbing Al-Shabaab’s influence, highlighting the importance of continued support for Ethiopia's counterterrorism initiatives (Deloitte United States ).

The Case for U.S. Support and Reasons for International Support to Ethiopia.

The strategic cooperation between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia poses a serious threat to Ethiopia’s sovereignty and regional stability. Given Ethiopia’s significant economic achievements and its critical role in counterterrorism efforts, it is imperative for the United States and other world nations to bolster their support for Ethiopia.

Ethiopia's rapid economic growth, driven by its ambitious Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), highlights its potential as a key player in the region. This growth is not just beneficial for Ethiopia but for the entire Horn of Africa, which could see increased stability and development as a result. By supporting Ethiopia, the United States and its allies can help secure a region that is vital for global trade routes and geopolitical stability. ( Deloitte United States ).

1. Economic Stability and Growth: Ethiopia’s impressive economic trajectory presents significant opportunities for international investment. Nations that support Ethiopia can benefit from economic partnerships, fostering mutual growth and development. The country’s strategic initiatives in infrastructure and energy create a conducive environment for foreign direct investment, which can lead to increased global economic integration.
2. Counterterrorism Efforts: Ethiopia has been a frontline state in the fight against terrorism, particularly against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Its military successes have significantly reduced the terrorist group’s activities, contributing to regional security. International support for Ethiopia’s military and intelligence capabilities is crucial in sustaining these efforts, thereby enhancing global security.
3. Geopolitical Stability: The Horn of Africa is a critical region for global maritime routes, with significant geopolitical implications. Ensuring stability in Ethiopia helps secure these routes, benefiting international trade and global security. The presence of a stable, economically robust Ethiopia acts as a counterbalance to the destabilizing efforts of its neighboring countries.
4. Humanitarian and Democratic Development: Supporting Ethiopia aligns with broader international goals of promoting democratic governance and economic prosperity. International aid and diplomatic support can help Ethiopia continue its path towards democratic reforms and improve living standards for its population, setting a positive example for the region.
5. Alliance Building: Strengthening ties with Ethiopia offers the United States and other nations an opportunity to build a robust alliance in the Horn of Africa. This alliance can serve as a foundation for broader strategic initiatives in Africa, enhancing cooperation on issues ranging from security to trade and development.

The strategic cooperation between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia poses a serious threat to Ethiopia’s sovereignty and regional stability. Given Ethiopia’s significant economic achievements and its critical role in counterterrorism efforts, it is imperative for the United States to strengthen its support for Ethiopia. This support will help ensure Ethiopia’s continued growth and stability, contributing to the broader security and development of the Horn of Africa.