Ethiopia Situation Report

Ethiopia: Amhara Situation Report

Information Cut-Off Date: 11th August 2023

Overview

The security landscape in Amhara Region in recent weeks has witnessed a notable escalation of fighting between the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) and the Fano – An Amhara nationalist militia claiming to protect the interests of the Amhara people. Fighting has remained largely limited to Amhara Region (including areas within 150km of Addis Ababa) and between the two parties. However transport and other economic services have been disrupted. There have been reports of use of heavy weapons, including shelling around major towns including Bahir Dar and Gondar. There have also been reports of the use of drones but these remain unverified. ENDF recently acknowledged the Fano had taken control of some areas of the region, freed prisoners and captured public facilities. All forms of travel within and to the region are discouraged given continued violence and the risk of falling victim to indirect attacks. On 04th August, the government declared a six-month State of Emergency in Amhara over the fighting. Addis Ababa remains overall calm but tense. Mass arrests have been conducted in recent days while no gatherings are allowed past 1900hrs.

Current Situation Assessment

Fighting between the Fano and ENDF initially commenced around June 2022 when the government launched a campaign to disarm the militia over looting, killings and arms trafficking. This intensified in April this year when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed disbanded the Amhara Regional Special Forces (ASF) alongside the forces of the 10 other regions, seeking to integrate them into the ENDF and Federal Police. The ASF, Fano and the Amhara population criticised the move saying it would weaken the region. Both the ASF, Fano and Amhara civilians consequently clashed with the ENDF over the disbandment which was also fuelled by fears of reprisal attacks resulting from Fano and ASF’s previous war against the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF). The Amhara also fear attacks by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) who are based in Oromia Region.

Consequently, many of ASF members defected to Fano, while the disbandment of the regional forces and intensified campaign to disarm the Fano was immediately followed by the assassination of regional leaders including the head of the ruling Prosperity Party Amhara Region branch, Girma Yeshitila (on 27th?April), the police chief of Dejen woreda (district), Zewudu Tadele, and the head of the Crime Prevention Service, Worku Shimeles (on 03rd?July), and the head of security of Shewa Robit City Administration in North Shewa Zone (on 04th?July).

Recent fighting has been limited to Amhara, including Bahir Dar – the region’s capital, East Gojjam, Gondar, Wag Hemra, North Wollo (location of occupied Lalibela Airport), South Wollo, Oromia Special Zones and North Shewa where sporadic fighting has been reported in areas within 150km of Addis Ababa in Debre Birhan. Accounts from residents indicated the Fano captured the historical towns of Gondar and Lalibela, claims confirmed by the country’s intelligence chief. No significant incidents related to the ongoing conflict have been observed in Addis Ababa. However there have been mass arrests targeting ethnic Amharas in both the capital and parts of Oromia Region.

Travel has been disrupted by the fighting; as at 08th August, the national carrier Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Bahir Dar, Lalibela, Gondar, Dessie and Kombolcha. Road travel within the region is discouraged due to the risk of indirect attacks from parties in the conflict. The World?Health Organization (WHO) has also raised concerns over difficulties in conducting humanitarian operations in the region due to blockage of roads and internet blackouts. The use of artillery and heavy weaponry remains a concern, having led to civilian deaths. The extent of damage to infrastructure and casualties in the conflict is difficult to ascertain at this time given the gaps in communications and road blockages. Foreign nationals in Amhara have not been directly targeted but are likely to face difficulties leaving the region. Banks in the region have also relocated hard cash from the region and reduced daily withdrawals.

Forecast (short-to-medium term)

Amhara – The region will likely see heightened levels of unrest and violence in the short-to-medium term with no peace/ceasefire agreement between the Federal Government and Fano, fuelled by the government’s continued campaign to disarm the group. The group’s total strength is unknown but is known to have ad hoc volunteers. Its military capabilities demonstrated during the Tigray Conflict while fighting against the TDF, and currently, its sustained attacks against and clashes with the ENDF remain a concern. The government retains significant air power (unmanned aerial vehicles) which it demonstrated during its war with the TDF. Following accounts of military aircraft sightings in the region, the use of drones is expected if the Fano show increased resistance or make further attempts to capture more towns including Addis Ababa. Further fighting will likely deteriorate the humanitarian situation and damage more infrastructure; the group’s operations/attacks in towns located on the A2 Highway, including Shewa Robit, Weldiya, Kobo, are of particular concern. The highway links Central Ethiopia where Addis Ababa is located, to Mekele (northern Ethiopia) and Djibouti which serves as Ethiopia’s maritime outlet. The ENDF has already launched a campaign to regain lost territories. It secured the previously captured Lalibela and Gondar towns on 08th and 09th August, while the government banned all movement and gatherings from 1900hrs across the cities of Bahir Dar, Gonder, Debre Bierhan, Debre Markos, Shewa Robit and Lalibela. The curfew restrictions will run until 23rd August.

Flights to the region will remain cancelled during the conflict. At this point the Fano appear primarily focused on weakening government and military assets while capturing towns seems more opportunist. Further fighting could lead to prolonged internet blackouts in the region which began on 03rd August, while intermittent blackouts in other telecommunications services are also expected. The government is known to impose such blackouts during conflicts.

Addis Ababa – While sporadic fighting has been reported within 150km of the capital in Debre Birhan, the Fano have not indicated any intentions to capture the capital. The militia is expected to continue carrying out attacks against ENDF positions outside Addis Ababa. The situation in Addis Ababa remains overall calm but tense following mass arrests targeting members of the Amhara ethnic community, likely an attempt to avert any imminent threats emanating from the conflict in Amhara. The army could deploy additional security in the capital including Bole International Airport, a move that was seen during the Tigray Conflict.

Oromia – The Fano’s presence in Oromia can be attributed to recent violence against Amhara communities residing in Oromia Region, and the group’s commanders previously expressed intentions to return lands back to Amhara possession, including the mineral-rich Wollega zones (East, Horo Gudru, Kellem and West) in Oromia Region, as well as North Shewa in Oromia, Metekel in the Banishangul Gumuz Region, Welkait and Raya in the Tigray Region. Both Fano’s activities/attacks and OLA’s insurgency in Oromia will not only overstretch ENDF’s resources but could exacerbate current insecurity and humanitarian crisis in western Oromia.?

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