The Eternal Summer & Adaptive Cycles.

A never ending summer, beach day’s the galore, a life full of long sun touched day’s. Sounds like a plan? While the idea of eternal summer may sound appealing. There are several problems and drawbacks, just to name a few;

• Eco-systems collaps because many plants depend on the seasons for their life cycles
• Famine, draughts, wide spread deceases due to water scarcity
• Biodiversity loss & Human health issues, extended periods of high temperatures stresses out many plants and animals.
• Loss of season based traditions and cultures often build around the changing of the seasons.

2023, as the hottest year on record, has given us a glimpse of what an eternal summer would look like, forests burnt, rivers flushed, water scarcity dried out plants - soil and rivers, migration patterns changed, famine’s increased, animals - including people starved from heat, hunger, water shortages or the tragic impact of extreme weather events.

Nature thrives in cycles. Nothing can last forever. Each season has an important role the play in the natural cycle of all life on earth. Just as other living systems, it can’t be always summer for organizations. Designing cyclical and following the adaptive cycle gives organizations the constant opportunity to reflect and regenerate. An organization that always summers, or only focusses on growth will eventually crash.

“The?“Eternal Summer"?naivety of our existing business models, which are often over-indexed on short-term goals, rapid growth and profit, do not prepare us for change and the complex reality and cycles of wider environments in which businesses operate. Truly transformative change relies on our cultural comfort with disruption, letting go, and bringing radical honesty to embrace conflict as a key component of building relationships. Innovations rely on having the space to be creative, listening to our senses and intuiting.” RSA

The adaptive cycle

Understanding the adaptive cycle can enable organizations to reconnect with the ritme of life and become more resilient. A business ran on the idea of eternal summer will quickly burn out.

Explain it to me like I am a five year old

Imagine you have a favorite toy, like a building block tower. An adaptive cycle is like playing with those blocks in different ways. First, you might build a really tall tower (that's called the "growth" phase). You keep adding more and more blocks, and your tower gets bigger and bigger.

But then, maybe you accidentally knock it over (that's the "collapse" phase). The tower isn't as tall anymore, and some blocks might fall down. Now, instead of feeling sad about it, you decide to build something new with the fallen blocks (that's the "reorganization" phase). You might make a different shape or a new tower. So, adaptive cycles are like the ups and downs of playing with your blocks - building, knocking down, and then building something new. It's a cycle of change and trying out new things!

In the context of sustainability, the adaptive cycle is a conceptual framework often used in resilience thinking and complex systems analysis. It provides a way to understand the dynamics of change in ecosystems, social systems, or organizations over time. The adaptive cycle consists of four phases:

1. Exploitation (or growth): This phase is characterized by rapid expansion, resource accumulation, and development. In a natural ecosystem, this could be a period of high biodiversity and productivity. In a social or organizational context, it might be a phase of rapid growth and development.
2. Conservation (or stability): After the period of growth, systems enter a phase of stability where resources are efficiently utilized, and structures are well-established. In a mature ecosystem, this might be a time of relative equilibrium. In a social or organizational setting, it could be a period of stability and consolidation.
3. Release (or collapse): Eventually, systems face challenges or disturbances that lead to a breakdown of the established structures. This could be due to external shocks, environmental changes, or internal issues. In this phase, there is a release of stored energy or resources, and the system undergoes a significant transformation.
4. Reorganization (or renewal): Following the collapse, the adaptive cycle enters a phase of reorganization where new structures, functions, or strategies emerge. This phase sets the stage for a new cycle of growth and development. It's a period of innovation and adaptation in response to the lessons learned from the previous cycle.

Understanding the adaptive cycle helps business & sustainability professionals appreciate the dynamic and interconnected nature of social-ecological systems. It emphasizes the importance of resilience, learning, and adaptation in the face of environmental, social, and economic changes. By recognizing and strategically navigating these adaptive cycles, sustainability professionals and organizations can work towards building more resilient and sustainable systems.

The model of the adaptive cycle was derived from the comparative study of the dynamics of ecosystems. It is meant to be a tool for thought. It focuses attention upon processes of destruction and reorganization, which are often neglected in favor of growth and conservation. Including these processes provides a more complete view of system dynamics that links together system organization, resilience, and dynamics.

Nested Adaptive Cycles

Like life is nested and interconnected so are businesses. No business stands alone. Similarly no adaptive cycle stands alone.

”Since nature is fundamentally scale-linking — connecting the molecular to the planetary and the local to the global — adaptive cycles of any particular system at any particular scale (e.g.: local community, bioregion, nation or planet) are linked to multiple adaptive cycles that are taking place simultaneously for smaller systems contained by that system and for the larger systems within which that particular system is embedded.” - Daniel Christian Wahl

The interrelation between multiple adaptive cycles is often called Panarchy. The term "panarchy" is derived from the Greek words "pan," meaning all or every, and "arche," meaning rule or government. The concept of panarchy has been used in various contexts to describe a political or social philosophy that emphasizes the coexistence of multiple governing systems within a society. In the context of natural systems, the term "panarchy" is often used to describe a conceptual framework that explores the dynamic and adaptive nature of ecological and environmental systems. This concept is closely associated with resilience theory and the understanding of complex systems.

In the panarchy model, ecosystems are viewed as hierarchies of interconnected adaptive cycles at different scales, from small, local ecosystems to larger regional or global systems. The dynamics involve phases of growth, conservation, collapse, and reorganization. The interactions between these adaptive cycles create a nested and interdependent structure, and disturbances at one scale can have cascading effects on other scales.

“The real power of the panarchy model is found in the nested systems that operate at different scales and speeds. While trends and events in a technological cycle may move very quickly, those within a political cycle may move very slowly. Each of these systems has a significant impact on one another, meaning that we cannot look at any trend, issue or system in isolation. In order to get a clearer picture of the world around us, we must acknowledge the complex influence that these nested systems have on our foresight efforts and future-empowered actions.” The Guide to Natural Foresight Framework

Questions to Shift Horizons

Horizons are shifted and worlds are changed when we start to ask different questions. Awareness of the principles of Panarchy is one thing. Finding new way’s of doing businesses, to align with these principles is a whole other story. Alignment with the principles of Panarchy fosters adaptability, resilience and responsiveness in a constantly and rapidly changing world & business environment.

• How might we design our businesses out of existence?
• How can we embrace the seasons in our organization?
• When has our organization no longer a reason to exist?
• How can we intentionally hospice the parts of the organization that no longer serve us?
• Are we fostering adaptability not only for our business operations but also for the ecosystems and communities within which we operate?
• How are we applying systems thinking to understand the complexity of our business ecosystem and identify opportunities for regenerative interventions?
• In what ways can our business positively influence larger systems for the benefit of all stakeholders?
• How might we realize an (un)learning culture that encourages experimentation and the sharing of knowledge for the betterment of our business and the socio & ecological environment.
• How do we enable employees and people in the wider supply network to enhance systems thinking skills and the capacity to make decision based on systemic awareness?

Further Explorations

1. Short Explanation Video of the adaptive cycle
2. The adaptive cycle as a dynamic map for resilience thinking, Daniel Christian Wahl
3. Panarchy: a scale-linking perspective of systemic transformation, Daniel Christian Wahl
4. Adaptive Cycle - Resilliance.org
5. Shifting towards a life-centric business, RSA
6. NATURAL FORESIGHT AS A PANARCHY