Estimated Market Share of Closed-Source LLM Models in 2024

OpenAI's Market Leadership Faces New Competitors

OpenAI, initially the market innovator and leader with ChatGPT, is no longer the only major player in the landscape of large language models (LLMs).

Google, Cohere, Anthropic, and a growing open-source community have introduced their own LLMs for enterprise intelligence applications, reshaping the competitive landscape. While precise data on LLM market share is limited, anecdotal evidence and research by AI analysts at GAI Insights indicate that a significant majority of Generative AI test and production deployments have utilized OpenAI's ChatGPT and other closed-source models.

Our AI analysts estimate that 90% of test and production environments have used closed-source models, while 10% have used models with an non-traditional "open-source" license.

In the past 18 months, closed-source LLM startups have attracted billions in investments, fueling substantial advancements. Here is an overview of some of the major players with closed models:

OpenAI: Supported by Microsoft, OpenAI with ChatGPT has greatly benefited from financial backing and Microsoft Azure's distribution capabilities, solidifying its position as a leading provider of enterprise AI solutions.

Microsoft: In addition to selling OpenAI's ChatGPT on Azure, Microsoft also offers models from Mistral and others and has developed its own smaller models, such as PSI-3.

Anthropic: A strong competitor to OpenAI with its Claude model, Anthropic has recently gained additional market share through its partnership with AWS and its latest model announcements.

Amazon: Amazon has invested in Anthropic, making it the recommended LLM for companies using AWS's cloud services and supports multiple models with its Bedrock LLM orchestration framework.

Google: Leveraging its extensive resources and expertise in AI, Google has developed powerful generative AI solutions, including the Gemini models and its Vertex AI infrastructure.

Cohere: A formidable competitor, Cohere has raised $1B, enabling it to develop a credible product to challenge established leaders in enterprise AI.

A121 Labs: Another promising startup with solid backing. Although their initial models were closed, they have recently released an open-source model.

Market Share Estimates

While exact figures are challenging to determine, GAI Insights estimates that OpenAI still holds a significant portion of the market share in the closed-source LLM space.

The Rise of Open Source

Despite significant investments in closed-source models, the open-source community is gradually gaining momentum. However, its market share remains small, estimated at about 10% of the total LLM market. This highlights the growing interest in open-source alternatives but also underscores the current dominance of closed models.

What Is Your View?

We anticipate a continually evolving market that will segment, bound mega foundation models, into on-device models, smaller models, specialized models, and enterprise intelligence applications utilizing multiple models (both small and large, open and closed).

Precise market share numbers are currently unavailable. What is your perspective on market share and the future outlook?

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