Establishing Certainty from Uncertainty

Routinely the weak seek answers that reflect a sense of certainty. In the realm of commerce we seek to achieve certainty in a variety of ways, whether by contractual provisions or by prescribing to a particular adapted paradigm. One cannot instantly convert an uncertainty to a definitive certainty without a slow often painful series of steps. In doing so we must remove factors that inhibit the ability to achieve an acceptable level of diminished uncertainty.

As we sit before our technology let’s take a moment to reflect on the quality of our certainties, concerning ourselves. We have past indiscretions, present fabrications and future visions that can only materialize by the actions we put into play now.  The element of certainty for each of us is the degree of truth. One is not suggesting that it’s baseless or founded on fabrication but in order to sustain a degree of dignity we are tempted to embellish. Whether this relates to us as individuals, the work we do or the business we have there is a possible that poetic license has been applied to elevated to a level that we consider honorable. As one person once said to me, “I will give them what they are expecting, and this may not necessarily be without embellishment”. Given this behavior it becomes a matter of risk, the frequency in which conditions may be challenged and the possible impact that the situation may have (present and the often forgotten about long term).

Today, as never before the pervasive availability of technologies and the varied landscape of dissemination outlets makes uncertainties into certainties or factual realities into to questionable truths.  One example is the deployment of fact checking services, and even they have come under question as to their unbiased and impartial reliability.  It’s quite unfortunate that we now have to resort to exhaustive rechecking of facts as we struggle to gain certainty that intelligent decision choices can be made from.

In Practice

Routinely in the course of delivering advisory/consulting services we are approached by desires for certainty. Whether it is to drive sales, establish markets, produce zero risk solutions or to acquire pivotal human capital certainty it has become a regular mindset drive toward definitiveness. This has been so much so that contractual conditions and rewards have been used to compel precise answers. It is these sorts of measures that hinder certainty and create uncertainties through smartly crafted hedged positions and supported by creative analytics.

Uncertainty is largely driven by fear even when there is nearly absolute certainty existing. It’s almost as though we deny truth for the sake of legitimizing our chosen actions. A healthy mindset would normally find clarity in truth, but for a lack of alternative choices we stick with a potentially failing ideal. Truth (certainty) then becomes a threat to creativity, innovation and flexibility.

For many who lack diversity and suitable experience situations are viewed superficially. Influenced by opinions and peer group positions certainties are illusive. This challenges legitimacy because of a reliance back on an unstable factual basis. Thus certainty becomes one that is in the eye of the beholder which therefore limits the pervasive possibility that certainty could have become.

Importance is Key

There is no such thing as an absolute certainty. But there is the potential for stable and definitive clarity. Routinely we have constructed and utilized a simple means by which certainty can be establish

1.      Remove any uncertainties created by,

a.      Opinions

b.     Biased and Prejudicial Sources

c.      Excess Pontification and Superlatives

2.      Established aspects that cannot be definitively affirmed,

3.      Form specific elements that are definitive certainties bearing in mind that some may be in an ongoing fluid state. Those that are such must be isolated and routinely examined/monitored,

4.      Formulate Certainty Position including elements that have impact vacillation.

The journey to achieving certainty requires a committed understanding to elements that place them at risk. Additionally, the means to reach a certainty conclusion (preceding example model) is an important tool in establishing that uncertainties are managed.

Despite flowery claims and exemplary pontification the reality is that certainty is dependent on engaging factors. Superficiality and a cavalier approach produces risks when there is an opportunity for certainty.

Decision Points:

• How accurate are your certainties?
• Are uncertainties ignored or are they managed as having effect value?
• Have you and/or your organization stayed true to certainty or have allow it to be influenced for the sake of prominence?

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Clarity Group Global is an intellectual decision validation institution dedicated to the support of leaders, companies and organizations that face challenging choices. Making right decisions that produce significant value equates to less disruption and chaos, "non-tradition made exceptional".

Examples and illustrations are used for purposes of contextually clarity. These fervently adhere to our unwavering commitment to client confidentiality and should be construed as a ploy to self-promote.