ESRI Update
Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
Advancing evidence-based policymaking that supports economic sustainability and social progress in Ireland.
Children in large families, in lone parent households, and in households where someone has a disability face a higher risk of income poverty and deprivation in both Ireland and Northern Ireland
by Helen Russell , Bertrand Ma?tre, Anousheh Alamir, PhD and Eva Slevin
The report finds that over the period 2004 to 2023, child income poverty declined quite consistently in Ireland while rates fluctuated more in Northern Ireland.?
Throughout the period income poverty rates remained higher in Northern Ireland finishing at about 21 per cent on average in 2021-2023 compared to around 14 per cent in Ireland.?
However, Ireland and Northern Ireland show a much more similar trend in child material deprivation, which follows the pattern of economic boom and recession that characterised much of the period.
Throughout 2010-2023, child material deprivation rates were higher in Ireland than Northern Ireland, however, in 2022-2023, deprivation in Northern Ireland rose to the same level as that in Ireland, to stand at 24 per cent in both jurisdictions. ?
The contrasting comparison for child income poverty and child material deprivation levels North and South, suggests that families on low incomes in Ireland have been less able to convert household income into an adequate standard of living compared with families at the same position in the income distribution in Northern Ireland. This could be attributable to a higher cost of living in Ireland.
?? Watch the report launch webinar on the ESRI YouTube channel:
New ESRI and NIESR macroeconomic model for Northern Ireland can be used to analyse potential impact of economic shocks and opportunities
by Adele Bergin, Hailey Low, Stephen Millard and Akhilesh Kumar Verma
To demonstrate some of the capacities of the new Northern Ireland?macroeconomic model, the report considers a range of policy shocks and other external shocks.
The simulation results for Northern Ireland suggest that increased government spending leads to an increase of private sector investment which can enhance productivity. Higher investment has a stronger and permanent impact on the economy compared to higher spending. This highlights the importance of how revenue is spent.
Another scenario examines a monetary policy shock, specifically an increase in the Bank of England interest rate. The results suggest that the Northern Ireland economy is less sensitive to interest rate changes than the wider UK.?
The report also considers spillover effects from stronger growth in the Irish economy on the Northern Ireland economy, revealing positive impacts for the Northern Ireland economy.
?? Read RTE News coverage:
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Latest overview of migration to Ireland shows both progress and challenges
by Dervla Potter , Keire Murphy , Anne Sheridan and Yazmin de Barra
The report features an overview of the latest migration data, policy and operational developments, research, and case law from 2023.?
Challenges include continued forced migration flows, limited processing and accommodation capacity for international protection, continued labour market shortages and the expansion of sectors eligible for employment permits.??
Immigration increased by 5% in the year to April 2024, still slightly lower than the peak in 2007.
There has been a 24% increase in all valid residence permits (which are issued to non-EEA citizens, excluding beneficiaries of temporary protection from Ukraine) in 2023. 30% of these are for employment, 21% for education, 19% for family, 27% for other reasons, and 3% for international protection.
?? Watch the report launch webinar on the ESRI YouTube channel:
Lone parents, households with children, single working-age adults and renters are the groups most likely to have an income that does not meet their basic expenditure needs
by Bertrand Ma?tre and Anousheh Alamir, PhD
In 2022, households in Ireland, on average, needed 45% of their disposable weekly income, after housing costs, to cover basic expenditure needs.
Significant disparities exist across different tenures and household types: owner-occupiers require between 38% and 42% of their income, those in private rented accommodation need 56%, and those in receipt of rent subsidies need 84% to meet basic needs.
Overall, the majority of people live in households that meet their expenditure needs. 11% of people do not live in households that meet their expenditure needs, with children, renters, lone parents, and single working-age adults being the most affected groups.
?? Read coverage in The Irish Times :
It’s eye-opening to see that while child income poverty has dropped steadily in Ireland, Northern Ireland's numbers have been a bit all over the place – ending at about 21% compared to 14% in Ireland. Yet regarding material deprivation, both regions are now sitting at 24%. Is the higher cost of living in Ireland eating into what families can actually get from their incomes?