ESRI Update
Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
Advancing evidence-based policymaking that supports economic sustainability and social progress in Ireland.
Persistent pace of growth in the domestic economy
by Kieran McQuinn , Conor Mark O'Toole and Lea Hauser
Our Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2024?estimates that Modified Domestic Demand?(MDD) will grow by 2.2% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, while we anticipate GDP, heavily influenced by the MNE sector, to grow moderately at 2.5% this year and 3.2% in 2025.
Overall, the pace of inflation is continuing to decrease. Compared to the higher inflation in many other European countries, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation in Ireland is relatively low. This, combined with increasing nominal wages, has led to real wage growth for the first time in two years.
The Irish labour market remains strong, with employment surpassing 2.7 million workers for the first time in modern history and unemployment at 4%.
?? Listen RTE Radio 1 coverage:
Between 35,000 and 53,000 dwellings needed per year, based on various projected population growth scenarios
by Adele Bergin and Paul Egan
This research provides estimates of structural (demographic) housing demand at a national and regional level. The estimates rely on assumptions around population growth, headship rates (the typical household size) and rates of obsolescence of the housing stock.
Taking the average over all twelve scenarios, structural housing demand is projected to be around 44k per year from 2023-2030, and around 40k per year over the 2030-2040 period.
In the baseline population scenario, estimated structural housing demand in the period 2023-2030 ranges from around 38k to 50k per year depending on assumptions around household size and obsolescence rates.
As international migration is the key driver of population growth in Ireland, additional scenarios are explored that incorporate higher and lower international migration assumptions than in the baseline scenario.
In a high migration scenario, the estimates range from around 41k to 53k per year. In a low migration scenario, the estimates range from 35k to 47k per year.?
?? Watch RTE News coverage of the report (starts at 6:26): https://www.rte.ie/news/player/one-news-web/2024/0702/
Recognised refugees are struggling to leave government accommodation due to both mainstream and specific barriers
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by Keire Murphy and Amy Stapleton
Recognised refugees are people who have arrived in Ireland, applied for international protection/asylum, and received a positive decision on their application.?
Mainstream barriers to refugees moving into autonomous housing include shortages in the supply of social and affordable housing and inadequacies in mainstream support services.
Additional barriers faced by this group include the ad hoc nature of the dispersal system, language barriers and a lack of information, and discrimination.
Good practices identified included the introduction of permanent, Department of Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth (DCEDIY)-funded integration teams in every local authority.
?? The Irish Times coverage:
State Contributory Pension reform: Winners and losers. Evidence from the Irish Longitudinal Study of Ageing
by Theano Kakoulidou , Claire Keane and Simona Sándorová
Up to 2018, a person’s State Contributory pension rate was calculated using the ‘Yearly Average Method’ (YAM). This added up a person’s PRSI lifetime contributions and divided them by the number of years between them starting work and reaching the State pension age.
This was criticised by the OECD - OCDE as being a complex and inequitable way to calculate pensions.
In 2018 a new, arguably more straightforward approach was introduced called the Total Contributions Approach (TCA).?
This report examines the winners and losers resulting from the transition to TCA.
It finds?that for 83% of men and 56% of women, there will be no change in their State pension entitlement.
The main difference is a large increase in the proportion of women qualifying for the maximum pension rate, from 54% to 75%.
?? Read Irish Independent coverage: