The "Erdogan Criteria"

Excerpted from my recent report for Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) ...

In his interview with PBS NewsHour hosted by Amna Nawaz, Erdo?an quietly introduced the criteria on which any re-evaluation of Turkish policy might be based. At present, nearly half of the natural gas used in Turkey is sourced from Russia, and Turkey’s plans to generate more of its electricity from nuclear power rest on a contractual relationship with Rosatom to construct, service, and supply the necessary plants, starting with the complex at Akkuyu. Russia remains a critical partner for high-technology projects, especially in the defence field. Given Turkey’s past unreliable and unpredictable relationships with both the EU and the United States, Erdo?an – and much of the Turkish establishment – wants to retain Russia as a hedge against economic and political instability. Right now, “at this moment in time” Turkey still depends on Russia for energy and technology, and its assessment is that the Russian military still retains significant capabilities and that the West is not in a position to alter this situation, both in terms of capabilities as well as political will, and both in the Eurasian space and in Syria. If EU efforts lessen Turkish dependence on Russia while providing sustainable new opportunities via the Middle Corridor, this would have profound impacts, since “Turkey’s future geopolitical orientation, as well as its industrial and trade strategies, is tied to the country’s energy policies.” If this is accompanied by a closer EU-Turkey relationship and new Euro-Atlantic security guarantees for Turkey both in the Caucasus and the Middle East, then this could lead to a new “moment in time”.

Have developments in Syria (and Ukraine) altered any of these criteria? Energy and economic interdependence could change over time, but hasn't substantially been altered. Turkey may be re-assessing Russian military capabilities and revising its estimates. But the other piece of the criteria--new Euro-Atlantic guarantees and initiatives--remains the missing link.