Eradicating extreme poverty would raise global emissions by less than 1%

Ayesha Tandon

In 2015, the United Nations set a series of Sustainable Development Goals – the first of which is to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere”.? In the same year, 197 countries signed the Paris Agreement – agreeing to limit global warming to 1.5C or “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels

New research, published in Nature Sustainability , investigates the compatibility of these two goals.

The study highlights the global inequality in emissions between people in rich and poor countries. It shows that lifting hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty would have a negligible impact on global emissions.

Dr Wiliam Lamb – a researcher who was not involved in the study – tells Carbon Brief that responsibility for emissions lies with the “super-rich”. He adds:

“In the public conversation on climate change, we often hear that actions taken in Europe or the US are meaningless when compared to the industrial emissions of China, or the effects of rapid population growth in Africa. This paper exposes these claims as wilfully ignorant, at best.”

Read the full writeup of the study by Ayesha Tandon for Carbon Brief here .

Emissions inequality

Greenhouse gas emissions are disproportionately produced by people in wealthy countries who typically live more carbon-intensive lifestyles.

The map below shows the average carbon footprints of residents of the 116 countries included in the study. The shading indicates the size of the carbon footprint, for low (blue) to high (red). Note the exponential scale on the colour bar.

National average carbon footprints for 116 countries, from low (blue) to high (red). Note the exponential scale on the colour bar. Source: Bruckner et al (2022 ).

The authors find that people in Luxembourg have the highest average carbon footprint in the study, at 30tCO2 per person. In contrast, Madagascar, Malawi, Burkina Faso, Uganda, Ethiopia and Rwanda all have average carbon footprints of less than 0.2tCO2.

The authors then split the global population into the top 1%, next 9%, next 40% and bottom 50% of emitters. Their share of global emissions (left) and average carbon footprint (right) are shown in red, yellow, light blue and dark blue below, respectively.

The global share of carbon emissions (left) and average carbon footprints (right) of the top 1%, next 9%, next 40% and bottom 50% of emitters. Chart by Carbon Brief, using Highcharts . Credit: Bruckner et al (2022 ).

The authors find that the average carbon footprint in the top 1% of emitters is more than 75-times higher than that in the bottom 50%.?

“The inequality is just insane,” the lead author of the study – Benedikt Bruckner – tells Carbon Brief. “If we want to reduce our carbon emissions, we really need to do something about the consumption patterns of the super-rich.”

Eradicating poverty

In 2014, more than a billion people were living below the extreme poverty line of US$1.90 per day. The map below shows the proportion of people living in extreme poverty in the 119 studies assessed, from a low level (blue) to high (red).?

National population shares living below the extreme poverty line. Source: Bruckner et al (2022 ).

“Extreme poverty” is mostly concentrated in Africa and south Asia – where per capita CO2 emissions are generally the lowest.

The authors find that eradicating “extreme poverty” – by raising everyone above the US$1.90 per day threshold – would drive up global carbon emissions by less than 1%.??

Meanwhile, raising 3.6 billion people over the poverty line of US$5.50 per day would drive an 18% increase in global emissions.

The study shows that “eradicating extreme poverty is not a concern for climate mitigation”, says Dr Narasimha Rao – a researcher who was not involved in the study.

Warming targets

The study also investigates how the average carbon footprints of different countries line up with the Paris warming targets.

The graphic below shows average carbon footprints in a range of countries and regions. The dotted lines show the target per-capita footprint that the world would need to adopt to limit warming to 2C (top line) and 1.5C (bottom line).

Regional average carbon footprints for countries and regions. The dotted lines indicate the carbon footprints needed to adhere to the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Source: Bruckner et al (2022 ).

“From a climate justice perspective, the clear focus of climate policy should be on high emitters,” Lamb tells Carbon Brief. He adds:

“We have a moral imperative to reduce emissions as fast as possible in order to avoid climate impacts where they will land the worst – in the Global South – as well as to ease the burden of the transition on vulnerable populations.”

Full writeup of the study by Ayesha Tandon for Carbon Brief here .