Equities, gold & co. - My private outlook for the coming trading week

A legal notice at the outset: All of the following content represents my personal opinion only. They are in no way a recommendation, advice, consultation or similar. I assume no liability or guarantee for the accuracy and completeness of the content and the actions you derive from it. Now enjoy reading.

Weekly strategy

While the U.S. indices were strong this week, market breadth continued to crumble and a few large stocks are pulling the market. In terms of sectors, technology is also attempting a comeback, while the commodities sector, for example, experienced a massive slump at the end of the week. I am sticking to my optimistic scenario for the end of the year and see these uncertainties as temporary. As a consequence, I am avoiding stocks that are prone to price gaps overnight. Precious metal investments have been dropped from my portfolio.

Sector radar

The RRG (Relative Rotation Graph) is a visual tool that shows the relative strength and momentum of stocks or market sectors compared to a benchmark. It uses the JdK RS Ratio and JdK RS Momentum metrics to measure and visualize relative performance. On the RRG, sectors are plotted in four quadrants based on their relative strength and momentum, with each quadrant representing a specific phase of the momentum lifecycle. I use the free tool from the ETF provider SPDR as it also has a good labeling of the sectors.

This tool saves me a lot of time in my investment process, which is inspired by Stan Weinstein (detailed information: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbKiiLo1s2o ). I need it when the overall market is positive and I go into the sector analysis.

Dates in the coming week

Current quarterly season largely over, U.S. dates here: https://twitter.com/eWhispers

Overview of European quarterly dates: https://www.boerse.de/unternehmenstermine/

?? S&P500/Nasdaq 100: Deceptive strength in the US equity markets

At first glance, the US equity indices were determined to reach new all-time highs and continue their upward run. However, a deeper look reveals a rather worrying development: while the indices are marking all-time highs, market breadth, as measured by the Advance/Decline line, is showing a downward trend. This negative divergence could indicate an imminent correction.

The dominance of technology megacaps often masks underlying market weakness. A rise in a few large technology stocks, often driven by specific news, masks weakness in the broader market. Changing industry leaders - a sign that large investors have differing opinions on the overall market - reinforce this picture.

Despite these signals, my portfolio remains almost fully invested. I have minimized my risk by not holding stocks that are prone to price gaps. Instead, I focus on companies that have shown consistent trends in recent years. I am well up with these positions and have set clear risk limits.

As we are in the bull phase of a US election year and the upward trend is strong, I remain offensive. However, it is possible that this phase will turn into a sideways movement, which will put the uncertainties back into perspective. In conclusion, I expect a rather mixed trading week with a slightly negative trend.

#S&P500 #Nasdaq100 #stockmarket #investmentstrategy #marketanalysis #financialmarkets

?? DAX update: Positive scenario remains intact

The DAX has recovered impressively from its recent lows on the last trading day and continues to show strength. The critical support zone between 18,300 and 18,380 points has proven to be robust and as long as it holds on a daily closing basis, my outlook for the index remains positive.

We may be on the verge of another upward push, which could be initiated by breaking above the short-term downtrend. I am currently invested in the DAX, with my hedging strategies set at the lower end of the aforementioned support zone.

Although the DAX still shows some relative weakness compared to the S&P 500, this difference is so small that it does not influence my investment decision. I continue to see potential for the leading German index and remain positioned accordingly.

#DAX #Aktienmarkt #Investmentstrategie #Finanzm?rkte #Marktanalyse

?? Nikkei 225 analysis: Waiting for the decisive impulse

The Nikkei 225 is proving robust and promises further upward potential. Now that the index has successfully stabilized above the key support zone between 36,700 and 36,790 points, we are turning our attention to critical higher levels.

Currently, the Nikkei seems ready to leave the short-term downtrend behind, with an eye on the next significant target at 40,962 points, close to the 0.786 Fibonacci line. Breaking through this resistance could clear the path to further highs up to the 1,618 Fibonacci extension level at 43,577.72 points.

However, I still lack the decisive impetus to invest, but should this come, Japan will once again be high on my investment map.

#Nikkei225 #Aktienmarkt #Investmentstrategie #Marktanalyse #JapanWirtschaft

?? China: Is the correction over?

The FTSE China A50 Index is currently experiencing exciting times. After an impulsive breakout, the index has taken a well-deserved break. This consolidation phase looks promising and shows positive signs, as there are hardly any strong sell-offs and the leading stocks in the index are showing signs of bottoming out.

Should the index dynamically exceed the 12,500 point mark, I plan to further expand my investments in Chinese markets. Nevertheless, due to the political uncertainties in the region, I am keeping a strict cap of 10% on China and Hong Kong stocks in my portfolio to manage my risk. These political factors cannot be charted and require extra caution.

#FTSEChinaA50 #Marktanalyse #Aktienmarkt #Finanzm?rkte

?? Precious metals - Ouch, that hurt! The bears are (almost) in control

Friday was a dark day for precious metal investors. My long position in silver lost a lot of performance this week, but I closed it immediately when the sell-off started with heavy volume.

The target of the shoulder-head-shoulder formation at USD 2,650 was not reached and now gold, as the leading precious metal, has turned downwards with a price target at the 30-week line, currently around USD 2,188. This price decline was accompanied by massive selling in the gold share indices, which triggered a wave of selling in the downward trend.

Although precious metals are not currently a short position due to the negative “Mansfield Relative Strength”, they are definitely off my buy list until further notice.

#Edelmetalle #Gold #Silber #Marktanalyse #Finanzm?rkte

?? Bitcoin / cryptocurrencies - Touched a thousand times... Shake out likely

Changes in sentiment among crypto investors are famous and notorious. The USD 73,000 mark has been tested several times, but without any buying impetus. The “bullish triangle” could soon test the underside, which could well go as low as USD 60,000 on a daily basis and lower in the short term. However, this is no reason for me to reduce my full investment, as such movements, which flush inexperienced or highly leveraged investors out of the market, are part of crypto music.

What will be the cause? No idea, but the probability increases with every failed attempt to break through the resistance at USD 73,000. My other crypto investments are geared towards Bitcoin, because so far only “fun events” such as the “Beer Coin” have been able to decouple. But that is more “playing” than “speculating”.

On that note, good luck!

#Bitcoin #Kryptow?hrungen #Investmentstrategie #Marktanalyse #Finanzm?rkte

Link to a strategic assessment of Bitcoin and the ETF launch: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/alexander-korn-cep-csip-55297959_bitcoin-charttechnik-wealthmanagement-activity-7172637721755172864-Exq8?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Important information for all those who want to know what the roadmap is for the next 1-2 years: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulpenmanie

Basic strategic opinion on cryptocurrencies as a speculative object: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/alexander-korn-cep-csip-55297959_die-tulpen-hausse-1630-37-boersede-activity-7159649573571833856-8o_P?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Why am I writing this?

I am often asked the question: Why do you still deal with the capital markets in your private life? The short answer is: because it is my vocation and my passion.

The more detailed version is that I invest in the same investments in my private life as my clients do at work. During the week, there are many trading participants, from fund managers to hedge funds and large private investors to small speculators. This mixture creates a diffuse background noise on the stock market, which is often difficult to interpret on the trading day itself. Have you ever stood a centimeter in front of a picture? You can see the individual pixels in detail, but you can only see the picture as a whole and thus the beauty, logic or motif from a distance. That's why the weekend is the ideal time for me to look back on the trading week from a chart perspective and set out my roadmap for the coming week.

As a supervisor and coach, I have helped many customers and clients to develop their own investment and trading strategy. There are more emotions involved in making your own investments than when advising others. After all, the money you invest represents time or sacrifice in order to obtain it. That's why I also enjoy discovering and optimizing my own shortcomings and mistakes during the coaching process with a client. Capital markets are lifelong and humble learning.

With this in mind, have a good stock market week!