Episode 7 - Google Did Too Much

Welp, Google is a monopoly.?

At least for now.?

We’ll see what the appeal brings. In the meantime, it’s fun to develop all kinds of wild theories about what’s going to happen.?

This is such a big topic, and I’d like to do a bit of a deep dive here, so we’re going to skip the rant and the grammar tip in this edition of I Think You Should Read This.?

So let’s get to it.?

The Google Antitrust Case

It’s four years in the making.?

While most Americans are celebrating all the gold medals Team USA is grabbing, the DOJ is celebrating its big win over the evil Google.?

After a ten-week trial, a federal judge has ruled Google acted illegally to maintain a monopoly.?

The headlines have talked about how this was a shocking and devastating blow for Google, but let’s pump the brakes a bit.?

Here’s what we know so far:

• The ruling states Google acted in a monopolistic fashion, especially related to its practices of paying Apple to allow Google to be the default search engine on iOS
• Google has already stated it will appeal the ruling
• The ruling does not indicate any specific changes, fines, restructuring, or limitations for Google moving forward

So what does all this mean?

Well, the truth is, no one actually knows. The only sure thing here is this: Google is appealing.?

As of today, a separate trial is scheduled for September 4 to determine the remedies or penalties against Google. That trial could potentially be delayed depending on the appeal.?

What's going to happen to Google?

Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities here:

Outcome 1: Google will win the appeal and nothing will happen

How likely is this outcome: 2/10

Google has an uphill battle to fight here. The main argument against Google revolves around its 91% search engine market share. That alone screams monopoly. Google’s main argument against its monopolistic status stretches the definition of search engines to include Amazon, Facebook, AI engines, and other entities that aren’t traditional search engines. The judge didn’t buy it this time, and it probably won’t buy it next time. And even if Google wins the appeal, it will probably still need to take some preventive action to make sure a similar case doesn’t come up again in the future.

Outcome 2: Google will be broken up

How likely is this outcome: 3/10

In a very similar antitrust case against Microsoft at the turn of the millennium, a judge ordered the breakup of Microsoft into two companies. That order was eventually reversed, and Microsoft didn’t break up. So there is your precedent. If the courts didn’t break up Microsoft then, they probably won’t break up Google now.

Even with the Microsoft precedent, it's still possible Google will be ordered to break up. After all, Google has A LOT going on. Is this a case where Google has gotten too big and just done too much? Maybe.

Outcome 3: Google will be forced to do away with exclusive agreements

How likely is this outcome: 8/10

It’s almost a guarantee Google won’t get away without making some type of change. The most likely scenario at this point mirrors the settlement with Microsoft in 2002. This could take shape in a few different forms:

• Google may not be able to continue to pay Apple to be the default search engine for iOS
• Google may not be able to force its search engine as the default for Samsung and other Android users

Either or both of those scenarios are possible, with the Apple one being the more likely path. In any of these cases, it’s possible Google will lose market share, but it’s also possible most users will choose to set Google as their default search engine anyway. After all, the judge did say it was clearly the best search engine for mobile. It’s almost a certainty that Google would lose revenue if this happened, but just how much is nearly impossible to predict at this point.

I don't see Google giving up these agreements unless it's forced to do so, so don't expect Google to stop paying for the right to be the default search engine unless the court says it's the only way forward.

Outcome 4: Google will be forced to give up other properties

How likely is this outcome: 6/10

This could come instead of or in addition to the removal of Google as a default search engine. Some likely properties it would be forced to give up are Google Flights, Google News, or other similar components that clearly show preferential treatment to Google entities within Google search. This seems like a much smaller penalty than losing its status as a default search engine, and this type of ruling would likely also be accompanied by a fine.

Outcome 5: Google will be forced to pay a fine

How likely is this outcome: 5/10

I can’t imagine a situation in which Google gets away with just a fine, but it’s possible. More likely would be Google paying a fine on top of another penalty. If Google loses its exclusive search engine status, then I don’t see a fine. In that case, the monetary penalty would be covered by future profit loss. But if the ruling is something else, then it’s quite possible a fine will be issued as well.?

There are a number of other possibilities, but I’m not a lawyer and have no legal expertise in antitrust rulings, so that’s all I can really predict at this time.?

So what does all this mean for digital marketers?

Right now, it doesn’t mean anything.?

This ruling doesn’t change SEO or Ads.?

At least not right now.?

But let’s consider each of those in the event the ruling stands and some corrective action is required.?

Antitrust ruling impact on SEO

The impact will likely be light here. Google isn’t going to drop its search engine. Worst case scenario for Google would be losing its status as the default search engine for iOS and Android (although the latter is less likely). While that could have a massive impact on search market share, remember these things:

• User habits are hard to break. Many iOS users would likely still use Google as their default search engine.?
• Google is positioned as the best search engine, particularly for mobile. This was made clear in the ruling against Google. That’s a pretty good sign people will continue to use Google, habits aside.?
• No other search engine has been able to take significant market share away from Google in the past, including AI search engines. Unless Apple launches its own search engine (which is possible), then the biggest threat against Google is Bing. I can’t see Apple users being satisfied with Bing search.?

Even if market share moves to other search engines, Google will still be the predominant search engine for the foreseeable future. Add to this the fact that SEO for other search engines (like Bing) isn’t massively different, and you have a recipe for SEO being unscathed by this ruling.?

Action items to take: make sure your SEO strategy is diversified. Even though Google has a 91% market share of traditional search engines, you should consider other platforms within your SEO strategy. This will be highly dependent on your users and their behaviors, but SEO for you may also include Bing, Amazon, Perplexity, Pinterest, YouTube, SearchGPT, and more. If your SEO strategy is just Google, then you should be looking to diversify independent of this ruling.?

Timeline to take action: begin planning a broader SEO strategy now.?

Antitrust ruling impact on Ads

The impact might be a bit larger on ads, but we’re still in the dark here. Another big component of the recent scrutiny against Google is the deceptive way in which the search engine has inflated ad costs in recent years.?

Action items to take: similar to the recommendation to diversify your SEO strategy, make sure you have the right paid media mix now. If your entire paid media budget is going toward Google platforms, then you may not be getting the best marketing return. You should be constantly evaluating your marketing mix, but with potential changes coming to Google as a corporation, now is a pretty good time to re-evaluate what you are doing. This doesn’t mean you need to abandon Google. In fact, you might not change your Google budget at all. Just consider what you can spend on and what you might gain from advertising other platforms.?

Timeline to take action: you should constantly be evaluating your paid media mix. If you aren't doing this at least once a quarter, you aren't getting the most out of your ads budget. Do this now independent of any potential changes coming to Google Ads.

Final thoughts on the ruling's impact to your marketing

We are likely many months or possibly even years away from any changes to the way Google operates. Look at the timeline of the Microsoft case and how long that dragged on between the trial, the initial ruling, the appeals, and the final settlement. Nothing is changing overnight here.

While you don’t have to make any changes right now, you should always be considering how future-proof your marketing plan is.?Probably the most important thing to consider here is how dependent you are on Google to drive results for your business. If your entire business relies on Google to make money, then you are in a risky spot. Now is a great time to put together a plan for how you can get out of needing Google to survive.

So what do you think will happen to Google? And how are you going to prepare to alter your marketing strategy? Share your thoughts in the comments.

That’s a wrap for this edition. I’ll see you again in a few weeks. In the meantime, I encourage you to go out and play a game of Monopoly so you can feel what it’s like to be in Google’s shoes.? ?