Episode 187 of MPL: Nick Bloom (Stanford Economist & Co-Founder of wfhresearch.com)

Listen to our recent episode with Nick Bloom, Stanford Economist & Co-Founder of wfhresearch.com.

We talked about the state of WFH, managing in a hybrid environment, the four versions of the 4-day workweek, and what’s coming next for Nick.

If you don't have time to listen, read the highlights below. ??

1. The WFH Revolution: 40 Years of Change in Just 2 Years ??

Nick shared some fascinating insights about the dramatic shift in work-from-home trends before, during, and after the pandemic. He highlighted three key points:

1 - Pre-Pandemic vs. Peak Pandemic:

Before COVID-19, only 5% of workdays in North America were remote. In 2020, that number skyrocketed to 60%. Now, it's around 25%, still five times higher than pre-pandemic levels. Nick put it perfectly: "We've experienced 40 years of growth in just two years!"

2 - Return to Office? Not Really:

Despite what the media suggests, Nick revealed that the push to return to the office stalled in early 2023. Data from various sources, like swipe cards and cell phones, show that office attendance hasn't significantly increased over the past 18 months. "The media loves dramatic headlines, but the reality is more nuanced," Nick explained.

3 - Future of Remote Work - The Nike Swoosh:

Looking ahead, Nick predicts a "Nike swoosh" for WFH. With rapid advancements in technology, remote working tools are set to improve dramatically. "In 10 years, we might be using holograms for meetings, making office presence even less necessary," he said. Additionally, younger companies are embracing remote work more than older ones, indicating a lasting shift in work culture.

In summary, remote work is here to stay and will continue to evolve with technological advancements and changing corporate cultures.

2. Two tips for managing in a hybrid environment ??

Here are his two big tips for managing in a hybrid environment. ??

1?? Coordinate Your Hybrid Schedule

• Set anchor days or team norms.
• Ensure at least two common days a week for face-to-face interactions.
• Avoid vague 'come in a few days a week' policies.

2?? Focus on Results, Not Time

• Shift from input management to output management.
• Set clear goals and judge by outcomes, not hours logged.
• Allow flexibility for employees to manage their own time.

Simple, but game-changing.

Presented by Great Place To Work: People who have a choice in how they work are 3x more likely to stay ??

I recently came across a stat that blew my mind: 70% of US employees have received a return-to-office (RTO) mandate. ??

As you might guess, this is significantly impacting retention. According to Great Place To Work?'s latest report, employees who have the flexibility to choose between remote, hybrid, or on-site work are:

• 3x more likely to want to stay with their company
• 14x less likely to "quit and stay"

In simpler terms, giving employees the choice in how they work leads to happier, more loyal teams. ??

If you're looking for more eye-opening stats and insights on how RTO mandates are shaping the future of work, I highly recommend checking out the full report from Great Place To Work.

?? Download your copy of the report here ??

3. The weird & wonderful ways that remote work is changing our lives ??

Nick shed some light on how remote work is transforming our lives in all kinds of weird and wonderful ways.

?? First up, a story fresh from the Wall Street Journal: the explosion of online shopping.

With more folks working from home, it’s no surprise that shopping from home has skyrocketed, adding around $400 billion a year. That’s huge!

?? Then there’s the rise of super commuting.

What’s that? Basically, people commuting 75 miles or more—just over two hours each way. It’s all part of the hybrid work trend.

Imagine having a job in San Francisco but living in Sacramento because you only need to be in the office two days a week. Payroll data shows that new hires are living nearly three times farther from their jobs than they did pre-pandemic. Companies are now open to hiring talent from way further away, which is a big win for both firms and job seekers.

?? Bloom also highlighted the “donut effect.”

People are ditching city centers for the suburbs, changing spending patterns. With data from MasterCard and Zillow, it’s clear that this shift is reshaping the economy in unexpected ways.

??? But the most surprising find? The golf effect.

Golf play is up 60%, especially during the week. Why? Remote work. People are hitting the greens on a Tuesday morning because they can get their work done later. The same goes for gym usage—it’s up on weekday mornings too.

4. The different versions of the 4-day workweek ??

He described the different versions of the four-day workweek through a creative Harry Potter analogy.

He said, "So the four-day workweek, it's hard to think of a topic with more confusion and misunderstanding. I'm going to describe it in a very Harry Potter style fashion. There are four versions. The first three are called muggle versions. They exist. They're here. And now they're maybe not that exciting, but they work. The fourth version is called Magic. It's debatable whether it really exists."

Bloom detailed the first three "Muggle" versions:

1. Shift Changing: "Rather than work eight hours a day for five days, I now work 10 hours a day for four days. Not that exciting, but it's a four-day week. The largest provider of four-day weeks in the U.S. is Amazon warehouses, and this is what they do."
2. Part-Time: "In version two, rather than work five days, I work four days. And rather than get paid for five days, they get paid for four days. Again, part-time is, you know, decades old, nothing very exciting."
3. Work from Home Fridays: "Some people kind of jumped on it and said, if you're working from home, that's a four-day week in the office. That's fine, that's kind of definitional."

Then, he touched on the "Magic" version: "I work eight hours a day for four days but get the same amount done and get paid the same. Effectively, I'm working 20 percent less, but getting paid the same amount and producing the same output."

Bloom critiqued the studies supporting the "Magic" version, noting that they often focus on small companies and are sponsored by advocacy groups, which may bias the results. He said, "The problem is any obvious low-hanging fruit efficiency has basically been squeezed out."

Despite this, Bloom acknowledged the long-term ambition: "Americans are getting about 2 percent more productive every year. Eventually, we should move towards shorter weeks. But right now, the so-called 'Magic' version is just that—magic."

Nick's definition of a Modern People Leader ??

"I'd say the big thing on a modern people leader is there's been a huge increase in data use. So, when I talk to leaders at different companies, I'm blown away by how much data some of them look at. The other day, I was talking to someone who's trying to measure how many days people actually came in versus what they promised. Swipe cards are the obvious one, but they were saying to actually look at IT. You can see whether people's cell phones and laptops are logged in. So, I think data is a big line in the sand that's evolved over the last 10 years."

The career advice Nick would give to his 22-year-old self ??

"My kids are 19 and 21, and my advice to them is, don't follow the money so much. Actually, I was a bit money-obsessed. You know, I wanted to be an investment banker and earn as much money as possible. I never made that career, and I'm actually very happy later on because one of the issues with these insanely high-paying careers is, you know, you flame out quite fast. I have several friends who made a lot of money in their thirties and forties, and I wouldn't say their fifties are so fantastic. So yeah, I think follow something that you enjoy and that you like rather than just pure cash."

Go listen to the full episode: Apple | Spotify

See you next week!

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