EPIFOCUS: Imagining plausible scenarios for the future – “A little happiness”

Futures thinking and foresight culminate, alongside a wide variety of methodologies and outcomes, in the creation and discussion of future scenarios. As we explored in recent EPIFOCUS posts, these scenarios are based on horizon scanning , analysis of global trends , and expert workshops and roundtables. The Infectious Hazards Foresight Initiative brings together world leaders and influencers from a variety of disciplines to consider the global trends impacting the emergence and course of the COVID-19 pandemic, discuss its future, as well as the future of other infectious threats in the next three to five years.

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Beginning the conversation around possible futures is crucial to imagining the range of risks, challenges, and potential solutions available to us. Scenarios help to bring these to life. It is important to remember that scenarios are not a prediction of the future, rather they are an opportunity to debate and think creatively about plausible future developments.

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Engaging with a scenario

Our imaginations may be a little rusty. It’s not often that we get a chance to daydream, ponder our collective trajectory, or consider how we can shape our future. Foresight challenges us to do all of these. So how do we use our foresight? By tapping into our creative sides, thinking outside the box, and bringing our unique perspectives to the exercise. An open mind and curiosity are key to engaging with a scenario.

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The below description is a summary of our first scenario for the future of infectious threats. Set five years into the future, things look very different than our current world. Read on and have your imagination ready to consider – how did we get here? What are the risks? What are the opportunities?

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If you need a soundtrack for your imaginings, each scenario is paired with a signature song. For Scenario 1 try out Hebe Tian ‘'A Little Happiness'

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Scenario 1: A Little Happiness

It is the year 2026 and the COVID-19 pandemic has come to an end. The once novel disease is under control, now considered endemic. Most of the global population has acquired vaccine-derived or natural immunity. Through collaboration, focus, determination, community empowerment, and hard work, humanity managed to get on top of the pandemic and, by doing so, yielded benefits for people and the planet. As a result of the measures, policies and lessons learned during the pandemic, the world has become a greener, fairer, and more equal place and is much better prepared to face future risks.

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In this scenario, while the virus still circulates, it is less potent. The mortality rate is negligibly small and not significantly higher than the mortality rate of other pathogens and the risk of long COVID-19 symptoms is a thing of the not-so-distant past. Strict public health measures are no longer required although robust mechanisms for diagnostics, surveillance, and tracking remain in place nationally and globally, further enhancing our preparedness against other pandemics and health risks.

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Between 2021 and 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) managed to prevent several potentially threatening pandemics by utilising the lessons learned from COVID-19 thus becoming more agile and adaptable.

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Worldwide initiatives aimed at equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines have been successful and in this scenario vaccine distribution is affordable, widespread, and efficient. Many countries have added domestic manufacturing capacity, enabled by more equitable access to patents and better global distribution mechanisms for key ingredients and components, resulting in improved supply chain resilience and self-sufficiency. At the same time, new treatment, and prevention options have emerged and are now available low cost and at scale, globally. These have flourished because of rapid technological and scientific advancements and accelerated healthcare innovation following the pandemic.

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The rampant infodemic that accompanied the first two years of the pandemic is also under control. Scenario 1 sees false information about the COVID-19 pandemic and pathogen is effectively countered and nations and healthcare organisations operate based on coordinated campaigns with consistent, scientific messaging and guidance. Community-driven initiatives around healthcare have reduced the impacts of social media networks in dominating discourse among sceptical interest groups and anti-vax movements.

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National healthcare systems managed to improve their resilience and adaptability. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on people and communities, tackling health inequality and the aspiration to provide everyone with equal access to healthcare are now at the top of nations’ agendas. This is coupled with significant efforts to understand and tackle intersectional inequality, and to eliminate disparities resulting in more equitable societies.

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In this scenario, economic growth still is varied and region-specific characteristics remain. Some nations perform better than others. A widespread restructuring of production systems high, upper-middle, lower middle-income and low-income economies took place in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic. None of the progress that was made following the COVID-19 outbreak would have been possible without a spirit of strategic collaboration between nations worldwide. Strong international partnerships and multilateral coordination, effective links between local and national risk assessment frameworks and tools, constructive dialogue between government, NGOs, businesses, and civil society, as well as the sharing of data, knowledge, and resources between countries resulted in robust global governance platforms, reduced nationalism, resilient and efficient supply chains, and an environment where conflict and civil unrest is limited.

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A moment of reflection

Scenario 1 is one of many plausible futures. It is shaped by social, technological, environmental, economic, and political trends. It offers one vision of how our current actions combine to create our future reality. But there are many other plausible futures. In the coming EPIFOCUS posts we’ll explore three alternative futures that are up for discussion as part of the Infectious Hazards Foresight Initiative.

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Join the conversation

To learn more about the scenarios join us online! EPI-WIN is hosting a series of webinars to share more about this innovative and exciting initiative.?

By: Sylvie Briand, Margaux Mathis, Nahoko Shindo, Matthew Lim, Sarah Hess, Victoria Haldane

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