Epidemic Frontline | Will we usher in the winter when viruses are rampant?

Will we usher in the winter when viruses are rampant?

It is an indisputable fact that COVID-19 will still be with us as we enter 2023. After winter, the number of COVID-19 infection cases is rising. How will the pandemic develop in the coming months? How will it affect the number of hospitalizations, deaths and other conditions?

The research team of COVID-19 Scenario Simulation Center simulated the development of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the next six months. Their latest forecast mainly reports the virus epidemic from October 2022 to April 2023. In this prediction, the six teams involved in the study made four possible predictions based on the absorption rate of vaccine booster and the possibility of new varieties escaping from immune attacks to varying degrees.

Public Health Online Podcast

On December 12, in the Public Online Podcast program, Dr. Shaun Truelove, an epidemiologist of infectious diseases, talked with Dr. Joshua Sharfstein about the latest epidemic prediction model. In short, the COVID-19 pandemic is not over. At the same time, we still need to fight against influenza and RSV.

Shaun Truelove, PhD

Epidemiologist of infectious diseases

Assistant scientist

Joshua Sharfstein, PhD

Vice President of Public Health Practice and Community Participation&

Professor of Practice

Ask

How does the latest model predict COVID-19?

Answer

This time, we want to observe some new variants that are emerging. At present, they are no longer named by Greek letters, but by the magnitude of their mutations.

We are studying variants called levels 5, 6 and 7. Level 5 includes some variants that people often hear, such as BQ.1, while level 6 and 7 include BQ1.1, XBB, and some deviation types of these variants. The main feature and difference of these variants lies in their ability to escape immune attack in the population.

At present, what is protecting us is our own immunity. New variants are constantly emerging, and we are trying to understand what factors will affect the potential immune escape characteristics of variants in winter with the spread of influenza and RSV. According to the situation of these variants, combined with the impact of immune enhancers (especially the new bivalent enhancers), we predict that the number of inpatients will increase significantly this winter. At present, the number of inpatients has begun to rise, which still plagues us.

Ask

From the perspective of the COVID-19 pandemic, what key factors will increase the severity of the epidemic this winter?

Answer

I think these variants are the key. We have a good estimate of the vaccine. Two latest reports, one of which is from MMWR, show that the new reinforcer has certain advantages over the previous monovalent reinforcer. Of course, generally speaking, as long as you get a booster, you will be able to improve your immunity again. However, after winter, the new immunity will soon be diminished due to the emergence of new variants. We have been monitoring these variants to identify the dominant strains.

Ask

According to the model prediction, with the increase of immune escape variants, there will be more inpatients in March and April next year. Is this the case?

Answer

Many factors contributed to this prediction. I think the timeline forecast from March to April is unlikely. This depends on the number of infections this winter. If many people are infected in the next one or two months, we will see a sharp increase in infection cases in the next spring. At present, we are seeing a large increase. The situation is even more obvious in some states, such as California, where the number of infected people is rising rapidly. The number of inpatients in California has reached BA. 4 and BA this summer The number of 5 variants when they became popular is still on the rise. This may be a reflection of the upcoming trend in other states.

Ask

How is the flu now?

Answer

We predict that there will be a rather serious flu season. At present, the number of inpatients is in line with our least optimistic prediction, that is, the current population has weak immunity. Our prediction is that the flu season will come ahead of time. In fact, it is happening. Compared with the previous flu season, the scale of this time will be larger. In the worst season before, during the peak week, we experienced about 37000 hospitalizations. This time, it is expected that the number will increase greatly, reaching about 46000 to 50000 person times, and even larger numbers may appear.

Ask

What is the current situation of RSV?

Answer

The good news is that RSV has declined. Its epidemic season seems to be earlier than the other two viruses. The last thing I want to see is the emergence of simultaneous infection peak, however, the spread of COVID-19 and influenza seems to be starting to synchronize.

In addition, different people are affected by the virus to different degrees. Compared with RSV or influenza, the impact of COVID-19 on pediatric population is not so serious; RSV does not cause a large number of adult hospitalizations, which is good news. However, pediatric hospitals are still overwhelmed, so we will see many tired pediatric medical staff and parents in the near future.

Ask

Now, do we encourage people who have not yet injected COVID-19 vaccine booster and influenza vaccine to complete the injection as soon as possible?

Answer

yes. Vaccine is the best protection we have at present. The report on the effectiveness of influenza vaccine makes us confident that it is one of the best influenza vaccines in years. As I said before, the bivalent COVID-19 vaccine booster is also more advantageous than the previous version.

We know that vaccination with booster can improve your antibody and immunity again. Even if it does not prevent you from being infected, it will protect you from severe threats or long-term infection sequelae.

Resource：https://globalhealthnow.org/