Epi #45 ~ Confessions of an Overconfident Adman: Navigating the Dunning-Kruger Minefield

Hello again, you brilliant lot.

Over the many years I've spent in advertising, entrepreneurship and working with sustainable ventures.. Something as common in business as Dutch cyclists running red lights is pervasive overconfidence. Aka The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

What is Overconfidence Bias aka The Dunning-Kruger Effect?

A cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge or expertise in a specific area tend to overestimate their abilities. In business, this often manifests as professionals or entrepreneurs being overly confident in their skills or judgment, particularly when venturing into new territories or tackling unfamiliar challenges. It oftens comes from when we've been successful in some areas, we feel we can tackle just about anything.

We've all been there – riding high on Mount Stupid, thinking we're God's gift to advertising. First to put my hand up and say I have been unrealistic about the time it takes to create a behavioural strategy document.

This overconfidence can lead to poor decision-making, unrealistic project timelines, or underestimating the complexity of tasks, potentially resulting in costly mistakes or missed opportunities.

Here's how to avoid the Dunning-Kruger trap and keep our campaigns (and sanity) intact

1. Check Our Egos at the Door: Think we can nail that pitch in a couple days? We're having a laugh. Give ourselves – and our teams – breathing room. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither was a decent brand strategy. Thinking we can come up with our most persuasive ideas at 21:00 is a fallacy. Decision fatigue is rife and it likely contributes to why we lose pitches
2. Embrace the "I Don't Know": There's no shame in admitting we're clueless about the latest Gen Z lingo. Ask questions, look stupid, learn something. Our clients will thank you for not pretending to be down with the kids. I think the smartest people in the room are willing to say "can you explain that further?".
3. Time is Not Your B*tch Deadlines are cruel mistresses. Don't promise the moon and stars in 48 hours (or ask others too). Be realistic, pad your timelines, and remember: quality work takes time, even for legends like us. This is the one I've been guilty of more times than I care to admit. Actually reflecting on my own time-tracking and looking into how long projects really take has been super useful in getting better with this one.
4. Seek Brutal Honesty: Surround ourselves with colleagues who'll tell us our ideas stinks. It's better to hear it from them than watch your campaign crash and burn faster than a Love Island romance. This is one of the things I love about Amsterdam, the Dutchies are direct and the quality feedback loops it creates is the best I've seen in 15-years in the game.
5. Stay Humble, Stay Hungry: The moment we think we've mastered this mad industry is the moment we become obsolete. Keep learning, keep growing, keep our feet on the ground. Rory Sutherland (and many others) talk about AI not taking our jobs, but making us stupid. Essentially, outsourcing our brains. To constantly be better, we must do the work. There's no hack.

Remember, we're all climbing that Slope of Enlightenment together. So next time you're tempted to promise the client a viral campaign by teatime, take a breath. You're brilliant, but you're not a miracle worker.

Now go forth and create responsibly, you magnificent bastards.

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