Envisioning 'Peak E-Commerce'?

Double digit growth of e-commerce has been taken for granted for many years with the industry transforming retail and freight distribution. A large share of this growth, at least in advanced markets, was based on a substitution from the conventional 'brick-and-mortar' stores towards home deliveries. The closing and curtailing of many retail stores and chains has been widely reported. There were also organic growth based upon the ongoing growth of retail sales due to population growth and rising incomes.

For several years I have been tracking in details parcel deliveries to a large apartment complex and the data underlined that it is statistically representative of larger e-commerce trends. By comparing deliveries for the months of January, the latest figure (January 2019), underlines a substantial decline in the growth rate (see graph below).

Growth in Parcel Deliveries in a Large Apartment Complex, 2015-19 (for January).

While double digits growth rates in the range of 12 to 15% were common, the latest figures underline that this rate has halved over the last year. Does the data indicate that we may be nearing 'peak e-commerce' where the substitution effect that droves growth has played itself out? Although there is no clear answer to this question, the data my analysis reveals is worth pondering. It could be symptomatic of a declining substitution effect, but could also be underlining a current economic slowdown. It is likely to be a combination of both.