Enter the Green Car Matrix: To Gigafactory or Not to Gigafactory?
Electric Vehicles (EVs) are powered by energy stored in a battery. Lithium ion batteries – the standard auto industry battery chemistry family for EVs – have low energy density when compared to gasoline and other liquid fuels such as methanol. Gasoline, for example, has about 100 times the energy density of a lithium ion battery. [a] That means that a relatively small and light amount of gasoline needs to be replaced by a very large and heavy battery. The faster and longer-range we want vehicles to be, the larger and heavier will be our EVs.
In 2010, the most popular EV was the Nissan Leaf sold with a 24kWh battery pack with a rated range of 199km. This vehicle did not achieve an acceptable range for most consumers, selling only 470,000 in the decade the Leaf has been on the market. To achieve range acceptable to consumers (200 miles per charge was initially set as the target and we are now being marketed 400 miles as the key competitive range target), EV makers have supersized their battery systems – going from 24kWh to 75kWh, and now we have some new vehicle models in the 100kWh-200kWh range.
From an LCA standpoint (as shown in the previous post), the supersized vehicles can have CO2 emissions greater than both standard ICE (gas-powered) and hybrid vehicles. In the LCA Era, we need to start thinking about battery size and range effects on vehicle environmental impact. A large battery EV may be a very cool car from a performance and features standpoint but, at the same time, it may be significantly worse for the environment. LCA adoption forces us to confront what happens when we supersize EVs – much higher material and energy intensity in their manufacture and fuel for operations. We must consider the totality of emissions, even if they don’t come out of a tailpipe.
Supersizing and fast-charging have a cascading impact on resource consumption and related pollution apart from the vehicle itself. A Giga-factory producing batteries for a supersized Giga-car will require Giga-mining of vast quantities of raw materials. Increased demand for Giga-cars will require Giga-scale-up of vast networks of charging and other infrastructure, as well as a Giga-scale-up of peaking power generation to meet Giga sized demands on the grid (see citation list for more information).
Finally, we cannot avoid the fact that personal transportation systems need to be looked at not only in terms of local impact but globally. If we replace one vehicle powertrain technology with another – say ICE (gasoline-powered cars) with EV – then we need to realize that mining raw materials for batteries and electronics will take place on an unprecedented level with unprecedented extractive pollution and a concurrent massive increase in power generation.
Neither the US nor EU nor China nor India nor California can look at the impact of the scale-up of a new transportation technology without looking at interrelated global impacts. For instance, China is adding 148GW of coal-fired power generation (equivalent to the entire current coal fleet of the EU) [b] to help support the scale-up of its EV industry and charging networks, and is currently accelerating this trend [c]. Coupling coal power with supersized EVs may help China achieve global dominance in the manufacture of EVs and EV batteries, but it will have long term catastrophic consequences for our planet. We may benefit from more affordable large battery vehicles in Seattle and Berlin but the trade-off will be a global environmental disaster.
We need to think through these issues now, not later. The LCA Era is a good start. But we must add to it the broader analytical picture of our mining and manufacture (of vehicles, fuels and related infrastructure) and the economic and environmental impacts of their scale-up. The matrix below addresses some of these issues across different powertrain technologies and the tractability or intractability of the economic, environmental and practical challenges they present in making them environmentally sustainable.
One final important note, I am not writing this to win a debate. I am writing to address what I believe are urgent economic and environmental questions at a turning point in human history when we need to make hard decisions on technology. I seek the best possible solutions. The data should drive our solutions, not being fans of any particular technology or brand. The decisions we must make are too important for that. If you have better ideas or analysis than mine, I welcome that and will change my mind immediately if the facts warrant.
[b] https://www.ft.com/content/c1feee40-0add-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67
[c] https://www.ft.com/content/cdcd8a02-81b5-48f1-a4a5-60a93a6ffa1e
[1] https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2019/ee/c8ee01157e#!divAbstract
[2]https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-storage-challenges
[3] https://about.bnef.com/blog/hydrogen-economy-offers-promising-path-to-decarbonization/
[4]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319919302423
[6] https://www.wired.com/story/a-cobalt-crisis-could-put-the-brakes-on-electric-car-sales/
[7]https://www.adamasintel.com/average-ev-battery-capacity-rising/
[11] https://eprints.ncl.ac.uk/259607
[13] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_United_States
[14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filling_station#Worldwide_numbers
[15] Beyond Oil and Gas: The Methanol Economy by George Olah et al.
Founder and Curator at Miami Supercar Rooms
4 年Interesting read . Love it I recently dm you letting you know of the concept car show being held in Miami in November 21St and 22nd. We have invited czinger to display their C21 but not heard back yet. We will like to firm their space as this show only showcase 12 cars from each era Past Present and Future. We intend to have Czinger as part of the 12 brands on the futuristic lawn. Here is my contact. Please feel free to contact me on 321 499 5086. Elo L-automobile.show Supercarrooms.miami
Board member | Strategic Leadership | Product Excellence | Program Delivery | Transformation | Technical Consultant
4 年Another thought provoking, and debate initiating, post Kevin. I don’t think we should expect new technologies to get it right first time or be a single solution, fit for every purpose. Battery technology is moving at a pace, do we need the initial, imperfect, baby steps to learn and to retrain people and systems? As you know, my biggest concern is whether the single agenda being promoted by some is to simplify for the masses or a genuine belief.
Small Business Owner/Sales and Marketing Professional
4 年Excellent insight, great data and information. Thank you Kevin Czinger for this thoughtful article and bringing to light the debates and discussions we should be having addressing this issue.
Glad to see this debate finally move from emissions to looking at the whole picture. If we are to look purely at emissions, the best progress would probably be to run an ICE powertrain on natural gas but access to this energy resource is not the same globally. Global leaders of innovative technology need to step up and use PR to educate policy makers. If you can get governments aligned with industry, greater results can be achieved to lessen the LCA impact. Who knows, a better power train might finally emerge if this happens.
Senior Advisor at Stout
4 年Kevin, you have accurately stated the environmental issues with EVs. In addition there is also the battery disposal issue. Those packs don't last forever. In a prior experience my company manufactured and sold uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems. Those units rely on scalable battery packs. Most states require the collection of a "battery disposal fee" upon the sale of these batteries. Batteries, like tires, are not easily degradable.