English version of my 10 Points on Johnson Coup published by Nouvel Observateur, Paris

TRIBUNE. Denis MacShane, former European Affairs Minister Tony Blair who first ued word "Brexit" in 2012, details the strategy of the new British Prime Minister, who has just suspended Parliament.

Labor MP for eighteen years, former British Minister for European Affairs under Tony Blair, Denis MacShane is the author of several books on Brexit, he first used the term in 2012. He reacts to the announcement of Boris Johnson of suspend the UK Parliament until 14 October, two weeks before the deadline for the EU's exit from the UK.

1. Coup de com or coup de force?

Boris Johnson's decision to suspend the British Parliament is a coup de com, but not a coup de force. Johnson had the legal right to ask the Queen to grant a long parliamentary suspension. In front of the House of Commons, we do not see tanks, but protesters who protest against the announcement of Johnson.

2. Why did he choose this shock decision?

Three reasons explain Johnson's shock idea. First, his desire to occupy the media space, day after day, with an almost manic feverishness. This visibility allows him to stay in the polls. Secondly, he must chase Nigel Farage and his accusations that Johnson is ready to enter into an agreement, not a "no deal" divorce, in the media. Thirdly, he took the initiative again after a few days, while it seems that the opposition parties can come together after three years of bickering over Brexit.

3. He pushes his opponents to radicalize

Opponents of Boris Johnson, such as Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, LibDem leader Jo Swinson, and Scottish nationalist Nicola Sturgeon are getting away with excessive, exaggerated language. The popular novelist Philip Pullman tweets about the hanging of Johnson [ he has since deleted his message , Ed] . Ridiculous and stupid words of one of the most respected British writers who ultimately play for Johnson.

4. Has Johnson premeditated his stroke?

There is no strategy or tactics. Johnson and his advisers like to throw stones into the stagnant pond of the British Parliament to see if they will trigger reactions and cause a sensation.  10 Downing Street claims that the suspension decision will force the EU to make concessions, including sacrificing Ireland or leaving the UK to have the cake and eat it off with access to the EU's internal market.

5. Are we headed for a new election?

Some commentators believe this is a first step towards a new general election, the third in four years. But public contempt for Johnson's move - demonstrated by more than a million voters signing a six-hour online petition calling on the House of Commons to defend his rights - would be a bad signal for an election campaign.

All the opposition parties have to do is demand more equity in the economy and society after nine years of conservative austerity, commit to respect the Parliament and say that citizens, not Tory elites will decide on the question of Europe. Johnson's hopes of increasing the number of Conservative MPs in Parliament are likely to evaporate.

6. Can the opposition benefit?

At this point, it's less Jeremy Corbyn or other leaders of the opposition parties than the number of conservative MPs willing to condemn Johnson who count. So far, comments by leading Conservatives, including former Prime Minister Sir John Major, have openly condemned Johnson. But that does not mean that a motion of censure initiated by Corbyn will be passed. In fact, it would be better not to use this procedure and let the Conservative Party take on the task of sanctioning this attack on British parliamentary traditions.

7. What can the House of Commons do?

The House of Commons is meeting next week and its speaker, John Bercow, has clearly indicated his opposition to Boris Johnson's decision to prevent the House from considering Brexit. It would have been easy to cancel the party conferences scheduled for September and allow the Commons to sit. There is no good reason to suspend Parliament until the third week of October. The question is whether there will be motions allowing a majority of MPs, including the Conservatives, to take steps that will be a defeat and a parliamentary humiliation for Johnson.

8. Why does Johnson fear the House of Commons?

It must not be forgotten that Johnson never knew how to handle or perform well in the House of Commons. He is not a Churchill, a Thatcher, a Blair. He never shone in his early years as an MP before heading out to conquer London City Hall. His jokes, his clowning, his posturing, and his vulgarity delight, certainly, the spectators and the fundraising dinners of the conservative militants. But his style does not work in the House of Commons, where a factual reasoned conversational style, reinforced by one or two touches of humor and a well-turned phrase, is the norm. Johnson fears the Commons. Unlike all the new prime ministers, he has done his best to avoid appearing before members of Parliament until now, and he is still doing that with the suspension of Parliament.

9. Suspend to avoid revealing embarrassing information

Johnson is particularly concerned that MPs may force ministers to publish economic estimates and simulations of the impact of a "no deal". The leak that took place two weeks ago in the "Sunday Times" , which printed five pages containing the most explosive details about the queues of trucks and shortages of food and drugs resulting from a "no deal ", has done a lot of damage to the new Prime Minister.

Brexit: what would be the consequences of an exit without agreement?

If the House of Commons were sitting, members could ask questions, force departments to publish documents, and launch debates and inquiries of "no deal" committees. Johnson had to avoid giving the authorities any additional information about these catastrophic consequences. But civil servants are patriots and there is now a good chance that this information leaks to the media.

10. Boris Johnson remains Boris Johnson

The suspension of the Parliament immediately had the expected shock effect. But it ended all illusions that might suggest that Boris Johnson would respect British parliamentary traditions. He acted out of fear. In one or two weeks, the story will be different.