Energy This Week

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AI, emerging markets and transformation dominate Adipec conversations

Adipec, the world’s largest energy conference, has dominated the conversation this week. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group Chief Executive of Adnoc, identified a “dawn of a new era ”, dominated by the rise of emerging markets, the transformation of energy systems, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence.

Artificial intelligence , its hunger for electricity, and its potential to deliver dramatic improvements in the energy industry’s performance, have been central. The electricity demand by AI data centres globally is expected to double to 150 gigawatts by 2030 and more than double again to 330 gigawatts by 2040. AI will improve energy efficiency and develop new energy solutions, believe industry executives. One example of that is a deal for Adnoc to spend $920 million enhancing AI-driven digitalisation across 2,000 wells.

Princess Beatrice of York, attending the Enact Majlis gathering of more than 80 sustainability leaders, spoke of AI’s promise, but cautioned that “We've got to reinvigorate how the human being is really at the centre of this narrative.” Siemens Energy’s Karim Amin explains that “the world does not have enough power generation or transmission capacity to fuel the data centres that are in the pipeline”.

US election critical for energy big picture

Americans went to the polls yesterday with a choice between two very different presidential candidates – not least in energy and climate policy . But the specific proposals of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are less important to energy markets than their approach to the economy, global geopolitics, and the unexpected crises that face any president. The Cop29 climate talks begin in Azerbaijan just days after the hustings, and the choice of president could overshadow the negotiations , with the risk that Mr Trump could again withdraw from the Paris Agreement entirely.

Energy security worries senior executives

Geopolitics and threats to energy security are another big concern for industry leaders at the gathering, who include the secretary-general of Opec, the UAE and Indian energy and petroleum ministers, and the chief executives of Shell, BP, Eni and Petronas. “The conflict in the Middle East is probably the top risk to the world right now,” said BP chief Murray Auchincloss. “The Middle East conflict is what keeps me awake at night at the moment, more than anything else,” added Wael Sawan, the Shell chief executive.

Despite these concerns, oil prices posted a decline last week. Worries over the Chinese economy continued to overshadow the risks of the Israel-Iran confrontation. The World Bank foresees a large surplus, of 1.2 million barrels per day, next year. UAE petrol and diesel prices are up about 3 per cent this month, in line with overall international prices. In the longer term, the peak of oil demand will happen in the next 10 years , the chief executive of energy trading giant Vitol, Russell Hardy, told Adipec.

Iraq decision a promising sign for Kurdistan oil pipeline

The important oil pipeline from Iraq’s Kurdistan Region through Turkey could be set for a restart, after Iraq’s Cabinet agreed on a process to compensate companies for their production costs. In an older oil-producing region, Aberdeen, Scotland’s petroleum capital, is trying to reinvent itself as a centre for new energy industries. And the UAE is seeking to triple foreign direct investment to $354 billion by 2031, with a focus on advanced manufacturing and renewable energy .

Saudi Aramco has maintained its dividend at $31 billion for the third quarter, even though profit fell more than 15 per cent because of lower crude prices and weaker refining margins. Profits at Adnoc Drilling gained 30 per cent in the third quarter, helped by the growth of its rig fleet and oil services business.

After several successful recent IPOs, Oman now plans to list OQ Base Industries , its only producer of ammonia, methanol and liquefied petroleum gas. Shares are expected to start trading on the Muscat Stock Exchange in December. And Mubadala Investment Company has paid $200 million to buy 49 per cent of the oil country tubular goods business of Spain’s Tubacex.

Global warming threatens people and pets

Climate change is now a record threat to human health, including dust storms. 31 per cent more people are exposed to potentially dangerous particulate concentrations than 15 years ago. Air pollution affects not just people but our pets. Cats and dogs in the UAE suffer from respiratory conditions such as asthma. Iraq, affected in recent years by climate change and desertification, has been hit by heavy rains which have caused flooding.

Cop29 talks need to deliver finance for climate action

“No finance, no action ”, says the UAE’s Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for Energy and Sustainability, Abdulla Balalaa. “Cop29 will be a finance Cop”, as he described the climate talks due to begin later this month in Baku. Prince William travelled to South Africa on Monday for the Earthshot Prize , which rewards innovative environmental ideas.

Air-conditioning is increasingly important in a hotter world, but also drives climate change through its energy consumption and use of greenhouse gases as coolants. A UK start-up, Barocal , intends to reinvent air-conditioning using solid materials, which could be two to three times as efficient as traditional systems. Reducing meat production in wealthy countries could also improve carbon sequestration in soils and forests.

Another electric vehicle has entered the growing range of options in the UAE: the VF 8 from VinFast , a Vietnamese maker. Lime is launching its electric bike service in Dubai to complement its e-scooter offering. Lower-carbon public transport in Dubai will also benefit from the launch of self-driving electric trams , which could ease congestion .