The Energy War Escalates
The Energy War Escalates
Russia lashed out at mounting Western arms shipments and economic penalties by?cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, signaling a new phase in the war in which oil and gas supplies are a key part of the battleground.
Since the beginning of the conflict, the U.S. and its allies have attempted to punish Russia while avoiding too much damage to countries like Germany, which still depend on Russian oil and gas. As this?newsletter noted last month, Russia needs revenue from oil and gas sales to fund its invasion in Ukraine, while its opponents are vulnerable to price spikes and energy shortages.
Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki,?called the gas shut-off “a direct attack.”?Poland has been a prime conduit for arms shipments to Ukraine and is sheltering millions of Ukrainian refugees.
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Gas prices surged after the cutoff, but the?immediate economic impact of the move was limited. Poland has worked for at least a decade to avoid being held ransom by Moscow. Bulgaria, which said Russia was using its gas supplies “as a political and economic weapon,” is more dependent on Russian gas, but it?received a pledge of assistance from Greece.
The shut-off serves as a warning of more serious potential gas cutoffs as the war grinds on. It came a day after Germany, which still relies heavily on Russian energy supplies, announced that it would supply its first heavy weapons to Ukraine since the war began.
Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, said today that a sudden halt of Russian gas, which accounts for 35 percent of the country’s supplies,?would trigger a recession for Europe’s largest economy. He also said Germany is?prepared to seize control of a refinery?mostly owned by the Russian energy company Rosneft, which could set the stage for a European Union embargo of Russian oil.
This month, the E.U. approved a ban on Russian coal in response to atrocities that Russian troops carried out in the Ukrainian suburb of Bucha. The U.S., Britain and Canada have already stopped importing oil from Russia, the world’s third-largest producer after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.