Energy Transition- "Horses for Courses"

Fresh from Badminton and then All-Energy having the right horse to tackle the immense challenges was a common theme. One size doesn't fit all, whether nationally, regionally or locally.

Massive crowds at both events, solutions sought to tackle different questions, with technology and safety having an influential role. Weather too can play its part.

All Energy looks to have had its biggest attendance yet, and jam packed full of content. There is an argument for making this three days rather than two as there were several strands which had panels of interest at the same time.

Main focus this time was on Hydrogen, Wind, and Community Energy, all of which show massive potential whilst having significant challenges to overcome. Plenty of discussions on other topics too. REMA (Locational Pricing) , Grid Constraints (High and low voltage),the International picture, funding , and of course the political backdrop.

Seeing the Route Map ..

At Badminton, an excellent technical course, with no Scope for any Intermittency in Horse Power. Accuracy required, keeping between the flags, and safety also very much in mind with penalties if safety devices were triggered. All about using the Power to get from A to B..

At All Energy #AllEnergy24 there were a whole range of Decarbonisation options to explore and ultimately it really is obvious that there isnt a "One Size fits All". A lot of encouraging announcements and also developments behind the scenes which indicates the scale of work in progress.

As far as the Energy Transition is concerned, plenty of challenges both in the UK and also globally in attempting to pick the right "horse for the course" and they clearly aren't the same. The "optimal" grid infrastructure has yet to be put in place and there is the issue of the Grid queue to address

Thanks to Sam Mackilligin for this colour coded slide showing the grid carbon factor

There were maps for the Hydrogen transition, one of the aspirational goals....

The "Horses for Courses" quote was also brought up by Paul Turner with reference to the excellent progress made by CMB in its own Energy Transition with a focus on Namibia. Seriously impressive from Compagnie Maretime Belge (family owned too ). https://www.cmb.be/

There was a huge range of technology on view and it really does seem that the tech is already has been invented to enable the transition, the challenge being the optimisation, and obviously the monetisation. The merit of bi-products from projects also clearly need to be taken into account, as often those can be clear enablers for early stage projects, with some early examples bringing "positive surprises". The need to bring through the skills to enact the transition was clearly another identifiable challenge and the issue was very well made by "Hydrogen Jon" Prof. Jon Clipsham Rachel Tulloch and Paul de Leeuw

Technology discussions included PlusZero Ltd , Exergy3 Limited and Cochran

In addressing seeking to make progress the "c's" of Connection, Cooperation and Collaboration were all brought to the fore by the likes of Nigel Holmes and Dr. Kerry-Ann Adamson

Delighted to attend the Hydrogen Panels, including by Matthew Knight which did make sense of the Hydrogen ecosystem as it currently stands, and to see those actively looking to participate in the unlocking of value SHIVANGNI PUNDIR (who is described on her badge as Future Talent ) and Yen Tran, PhD (who helps further the education of the those with interest)

The sheer number of attendees at the range of sessions attended suggest there will be growing momentum for the rest of 2024 and for a number of reasons into 2025 some of the mists of uncertainty will clear.

The decision of what REMA looks like will be clearer, both from Locational Pricing, and also the selected version of CFD's from the 5 currently in the running.

There will also be more clarity on the current Grid Connections queue. Given the amount of money being spent on Constraint payments and also the projected Transmission investment, this does need to be tackled. There are various key points on the queue that will appear including the removal of zombie schemes. The current grid queue is estimated to contain four times the amount of generating capacity that will be needed for the transitioned energy system in 2050. That doesn't sound remotely efficient and illustrates the piecemeal approach that has been taken in some areas. It also doesn't herald a Just Transition given the front end loading of the potential cost. It is also worth looking at the Local Transmission Grid challenge as laid out in the recent report by Regen. Local Communities must be able to employ the tools to participate in a Just Transition. https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Electrification-The-local-grid-challenge-Regen.pdf

Politics. The General Election looms in the UK, with Energy high on the agenda. Should the Labour Party win (the current expectation) Energy Policy has already been cited for early action. Worth a quick look at the policies as previously suggested. https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Make-Britain-a-Clean-Energy-Superpower.pdf

Hydrogen -- The rooms were full to overflowing (best attendance at these presentations since 2017 ) ..with HAR1 and notably HAR2 projects being key discussion points and Reality becomes closer.

There are still key decisions to be made on Blending Hydrogen into the Gas Grid, Transmission and Storage Models need to be set, and Low Carbon Hydrogen needs to see prices becoming more accessible.

Fergus Tickell provided an excellent to do list of what is required in Scotland from an SGN perspective( and the "course " might look different in different geographies), and it will be fascinating to see the Grangemouth to Granton Pipeline trial evolve under the project leadership of Nancy Thomson

Offshore Wind-- Clearly the potential powerhouse of the new decarbonised grid, with one of the biggest challenges being the grid connection. The map provided by Paul O'Brien shows the massive scale of what is envisaged offshore. As per the list above, this needs be maximised, for multiple uses.

So much more to dive into that will appear in follow ups. In the meantime there clearly is the potential "Horse Power" to deliver the transition, but it is also fair to say that there is work to do on Course Design and to ensure that the Horses are capable of meeting the challenge, which means working through the grades.

The distances between certain jumps are related and it is important to stay on course between the flags... and pictures below from the "Ineos" and "Lightsource BP "combination fences both of which were amongst the most difficult on the course...

Philip Kerr

Director

WesterHayes Impact Advisory