Energy Transition Finance – through the looking glass

Contents

Preface

City & Financial Global

Key takeaways

Introductory remarks

Session 1:? Developing an effective framework for the transition finance market via clear definitions and guiding principles/standards

Session 2:? Case study - Transition finance in action

Session 3:? Scaling up transition finance solutions: general purpose corporate financing vs labelled products (e.g. green/sustainability/transition linked bonds? & loans)

Session 4:? The role of public finance institutions in developing blended finance to de-risk transition financing

Session 5:? Market tools to unlock private finance for nascent technologies: including mandatory, voluntary and international carbon markets, insurance and private capital

Session 6:? The role of investors in transition finance

Session 7:? Transition plans as an integral element of transition finance, including metrics and KPIs

Session 8: Lessons from international developments in transition finance and the need to work towards international harmonisation of standards reflecting regional and national pathways

Session 9: Developing a robust data and disclosure ecosystem

Concluding remarks

Preface

In Lewis Carroll’s sequel novel “Through the Looking Glass, and what Alice found there” Alice is hugging both a black and a white kitten but wonders about a mirror on the wall and what it would be like on the other side.? Exploring for herself she finds she can cross inside it and enters into a world where much is overturned and bizarre.??? Flowers can speak, and the world is a chessboard she proceeds to traverse.? That is only the start of experience in a world where everything is new and different, and well, odd.

It is at times tempting to think of the world of energy transition and its financing in similar terms.? We do in 2024 find ourselves hugging both the white and the black energy kittens and wondering what is on the other side of the energy transition “mirror”.? The view while certainly different, may – we hope at least - not be as crazed as Alice experienced, but there is certainly a chess board to navigate, and the inane squabbles of Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dee she also experiences are likely something we can relate to.

Today though, I was pleased to attend the City and Financial Global event bringing together an impressive trove of transition finance expertise – and dare I say it, power. ?Far from being crazed, the message and the vista was one of significant consistency. Unanimity would be an exaggeration, but significant consistency is not.

I don’t know if I have come down with some strange delirium, but increasingly – as a technical professional - I find the whole world of how things get to be financed compelling to watch.? Sometimes in a watching a car-crash kind of way, for sometimes it is truly bizarre what gets financed, others in a moon-landing kind of way – i.e. of how we actually managed such success, from such a primitive starting point.

Yet today – speaking as a bit of an overt and benign “spy” from the technical realms into the world of finance – was a day of insight.? Some things hugely encouraging.? Others representing challenges for which we have only begun to perceive the faint outline, through the fog, of the tip of an iceberg.

In what follows I go through each of the sessions of the day one by one and share some takeaways.? The text within each section is unapologetically mostly a paraphrasing of those named for each session, occasionally with my own interjectory comments – so please don’t shoot the messenger.? Not everything reported here is something I fully align with.? It is a lengthy and detailed record, and for that I make no apologies.? Occasionally we experience a conference that genuinely seems on the cusp of something significant, and worth recording and revisiting in some detail.? Even if for my own benefit, the action of revisiting notes and putting them together with some attempt at coherence, has only added to the learning and sense of encouragement. There was a lot of jargon that was a bit new to me. Where that is the case, I have endeavoured to elaborate, I hope mostly correctly.

The key objective here has been to earnestly observe the transition conversation taking place within the financial sector and to report it.? As for my own perspective I begin with some key takeaways of my own in overview.? On occasion I may refer to paraphrased soundbite quotes from the participants in each panel (blue), and also insert some key questions, issues or observations of my own (red).? If short of time to read (and it is a long one) then skimming over the blue and red comments will give a flavour.

City & Financial Global

A thank you up front to City & Financial Global , who organised the conference.? As James Roe commented at the conclusion, the day felt like a one-day MBA in transition finance, and speaking personally I found that to be true.? A valuable insight that has certainly encouraged me to keep track of the group’s future events.? ?I extend my personal thanks to these members of the City and Financial Global team:? Olivia Cornelius ; Leila Mullan ; Alida Ndreu ; Paul Hooper.

It also seems appropriate to recognise with thanks the day’s sponsors:

A&O Shearman ; Loan Market Association (LMA) ; Munich Re ; Slaughter and May ; City of London Corporation ; Accounting for Sustainability (A4S) ; B4NZ ; The Carbon Trust ; The Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (The CISI) ; Planet Tracker .

The agenda for the event, and further details on the speakers and panelists, are provided at:

www.cityandfinancialglobal.com/making-the-uk-a-global-hub-for-transition-finance-2024/agenda

Key takeaways

When we attend short conferences on subjects outside our normal circuit, there are dangers.? We can come away thinking we have suddenly heard a representative view of a huge sector, when in truth that probably takes years to assess.? So, I am not in a position to appreciate the representativeness of what I heard during the day – i.e. whether it represents mainstream views of the companies involved, or the "subset" views of those within them that already have the most positive disposition towards transition finance themes.? That said, the reactions to the days events of those who are in the financial sector, led me to believe the discussions were significant, and are consistent with a genuine turning of the financial tides -however incipient.

The overarching impression I take away, is one of pleasant surprise.? As a technical professional, most of the questions that I would hope the financial sector to be asking itself, they seem to be asking.? Where we as technical professionals have criticisms of the financial sector’s performance to date – the sector shares many of them.?To be honest at times I was quite amazed to hear some of the things being said, being said. It blew my preconceptions of what the financial sector in London would want to say, a little bit out of the water.

The commitment to change, and to real technically audited decarbonisation impact – is what as technical professionals we often get most passionate about.? Pleading for greater depth of analysis and the avoidance of duping by greenwashing.? I am pleasantly surprise to report that – at least based on the conference attendees – that passion seems shared by the sector.? Not just to the point of assertively requiring better standards of accountability, but on occasion even aggressively seeking it. This, from a core of people at the heart of one the globe's leading financial sectors, is encouraging.

That said, not all is a rose-garden.? It there is a caution and a caveat, the day left an impression that there may sometimes be too much emphasis on "where does UK lead and have technical edge" without asking the question thoroughly enough, will anyone actually want to follow where it is leading, and do those areas actually do what they say on the tin, long term. It is so easy for governments to swallow, somewhat earnestly the line "but UK is really strong on this" without out asking the question vigorously enough, but who will want it in 20 years...

Whether the balance in seizing commercial opportunity and assessing long term effectiveness of funded projects has achieved the right technically moderated status, seems a very good question, and I don’t think we are there yet.?? One of the most encouraging things of the day however, was to see that the sector itself also “gets” this and wants to correct it.? The mood forcefully proactive for accelerated change and improved quality of change.

To summarise, there are ultimately three broad goals:

1.?????? Commercial viability/profitability;

2.?????? Playing to UK’s strengths;

3.?????? Facilitating effective transition impact.

Are these priorities being adopted in the right proportion and priority? That is the challenge.? If there is scope for improvement, it seems to lie most solidly in ensuring 3) is not sidelined by 1 &2.? That is not easy, but the goal ultimately is transition, and without success in 3), success in 1&2 do not achieve that.

Introductory remarks

Maurice Button , Kathrine Meloni , and Vanessa Havard-Williams

The latest 2024 updated Transition Plan Task Force (TPTF) final report, is due imminently.

https://transitiontaskforce.net

In part that has been the catalyst for this get together, to focus minds on the key issues ahead of its launch. ?With all sorts of authorities increasingly insisting on the provision of “transition plans” the goal is to provide frameworks for investors, sector by sector, which give confidence, including the weaning of those “not commercially viable”.? ?Credibility is a key theme, the understanding of what credible transition planning looks like.

Reference was also made to the application of “soft law” as a tool to allow greater dynamism and agility, and the TPTF framework aspires to this capability, in attempt to make regulation more effective.? Soft law guidelines are similar to legally binding “hard law” but are more flexible and leave adjudicating authorities the scope for practical law application. They help avoid overregulation and allow points of orientation for the interpretation of laws.?

At a base level, the lack of understanding around what transition finance means was highlighted.? The need for education and how sustainable finance is different from transition finance.? One is preoccupied with funding of things that are sustainable.? The other is focused on taking things that are not, to a place where they are more so.?

A key goal – and objective of the Transition Finance Market review, has been to create new ways of collaborating – and specifically not just private or government financing on its own.? Recognising at the same time the competition that exists within financial markets and the demands and barriers for the right financial products.? To date progress has been made in decarbonisation of the power sector, but others such as transport remain stubbornly difficult, such as transport and real estate.?

Unlocking transition finance is seen as a key imperative for this decade and beyond, and an opportunity for value growth.? The commercial viability of initiatives is a requirement.? Yet there are five key barriers recognised:

As a non-financier outsider, most of these were no surprise – and in a way it is remarkable and encouraging, how so many of the issues we as technical people might expect financiers to be asking themselves – are in evidence.? Both the technical and the financial recognise the same issues.?

Perhaps the one that most surprised me though was point 5.? The degree to which being accused of greenwashing is a barrier for investors to engage with the very industries that most need transitioning.? That is a problem.? There is a sense in which calling out greenwashing has been too successful, to the extent that a paralysis now exists in funding anything.

There were some key findings/areas for attention the Transition Finance Market Review identified. These included:

a)?????? Issues surrounding definition and credibility – confusion in the scope of transition finance.? The need for a principle-faced approach

b)?????? Policy and funding frameworks – including better vehicles for public-private collaboration, regulatory debottlenecking, and bridging.?

c)?????? Commercial viability at the heart of action, to mobilise beyond catalytic-level capital and into full entry level capital.

d)?????? Putting transition plans at the heart of activity as a priority, without for now insisting on them.? They cannot be a prerequisite in the interim, as things just aren’t that developed in various sectors, - but a need to emphasise their role and wait for them to “clock-in” with time.

e)?????? Coalescence of credible metrics for measuring and assessing transition projects.

f)??????? Realizing the difference of transition in different places, specifically outside Britain.? Not one size fits all.? The particular issue for example, of newly installed fossil infrastructure in emerging economies, still on-paper with much of its project life still to fulfil.? These represent harder tasks for transitioning than older mature facilities in developed economies.

g)?????? Capacity and regulation.? The UK is observed to have great sustainable finance depth, but the capacity is thin and siloed and resides “on the side of the desk”.? A need to be more granular at the sectorial level.? The City of London is planning a body to hold stakeholders to account.

Session 1:? Developing an effective framework for the transition finance market via clear definitions and guiding principles/standards

James Roe , Vanessa Havard-Williams , Irem Yerdelen , & Simone Utermarck

Discussion began with reference to the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) principles for sustainable finance and bonds ( www.icmagroup.org/sustainable-finance/the-principles-guidelines-and-handbooks/green-bond-principles-gbp & www.icmagroup.org/sustainable-finance ), and principle-faced approaches.? The advantage being their absence of prescription and a greater degree of versatility.

Reference was made also to the increasing proliferation of taxonomies, such as that for the EU sustainable finance taxonomy (https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en ), or that of the World Bank for just transition ( https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4170363805a08d5eaca17fbd62db45d2-0340012024/original/World-Bank-Just-Transition-Taxonomy-2024.pdf ).? Taxonomies are classification systems defining criteria for economic activities aligned with specific objectives – be it sustainability or transition, or something else. ??In a transition context they define why something should be regarded as transitional.? The principles behind such taxonomies are market sourced, but there is ambition in the EU to make such transition taxonomies increasingly technical in nature. ??In Asia the approach is somewhat different, with green, amber (transitional) and red (non-compliant) traffic light systems more in evidence ( https://ieefa.org/resources/sustainable-finance-asia-comparative-study-national-taxonomies ).?

The relevance to the City of London was discussed, and the leading role the city has in many financial sectors, including leading roles in insurance, shipping, and offshore wind finance.? A key issue has been the separation/treatment of oil and gas aspects, and companies that are involved in both oil and gas financing and transition financing.?

At the same time as the recognition of different activities in different sectors, a parallel recognition of a need to keep transition taxonomies applicable economy wide, and not limited to individual sectors, placing high emitting companies of any origin in the spotlight.? The great need to assess credibility of plans with a principle-based approach to best practice was reiterated.? Linked to that is appropriate definition of transition finance.?

Of particular importance is an articulation of transition “credibility parameters”.? This in the context of a “degree of paralysis” that has arisen in the sustainable and green finance sectors relating to investment in transition projects, because on occasion emissions can go up in the short term.? This highlights a need for impact metrics that are not just focused on emissions.?

Some of the relevant ICMA recommendations are for greater insistence on entity level strategy and policy, including transition plans.? Some such as ICMA, consider these should be mandatory as is now the case for the EU under new CSDDD regulation. Others consider that these need not necessarily be mandatory everywhere, but can take the form of corporate sustainability directives.? Issuers of such plans should bring good and publicly costed pathway plans that are geographically appropriate to location.? The need for financing and the barriers to it can be elaborated on. Reference was made to the Japanese Sovereign Transition Bond? (JSTB -? https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/transition_finance/index.html ) in line with ICMA principles and green bonds. In the JSTB framework we note:?

“These Technology Roadmaps cover so called hard to-abate sectors such as Iron and Steel, Chemical, Power, Gas, Oil, Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Automobile sectors. Each sector-specific roadmap presents a pathway for reducing CO2 emissions with the introduction of low-carbon and decarbonization technologies, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The sector-specific roadmaps demonstrate the phased conversion, decommissioning, and discontinuation of technologies and facilities towards emission reduction, providing a clear plan and timeline. Implementation of upfront investments towards these goals leads to avoiding lock-in during the transition.”

Again, there is that sense of transition frameworks being different in their “touching of the untouchables” and providing plans for their transition. This is a necessary strategy to help banks and lenders overcome their hesitancies where oil and gas is involved in the status quo being transitioned from.?? The investors in general have to embrace a lot more sophistication and adopt a holistic approach to the energy and resource landscape.?

How all this works in practice though, is non-trivial.? Both for each sector and for each country.? Any principle-based approach, it is suggested, shouldn’t ignore existing mechanisms, but have an approach that can “wrap around them”, to provide a degree of consistency across the market.? This includes growing maturity of transition plans which to date are not very widely available in a developed form.

The new levels of collaboration required, it is noted, are increasingly happening in places such as Japan and Singapore. The ambition to do the same is being explored within the City of London “Transition Finance Council” with ambitions to track progress, embed finance guidelines, and take forward working groups.?

The challenge of bringing together public and private finance – with a change of mindset in how we operate – it was noted - revolves largely around the issue of risk.? Working in new domains of uncertainty and risk.? Are collaborative partners capable of doing that?? The question was asked – what are the key risks of NOT getting transition funding right?? It is dawning on the investment community that those risks are as great as any involved in not participating.?

While it is observed that there are many regulatory initiatives out there, it is supposed that there is a need to also not become too strict, lest investment be suffocated at the start.? While the wealth of opportunity existing is recognised, to take part in the transition finance market, one of the greatest challenges is inertia.? The phenomenon of very busy people working “in vertical”, overseeing the layer below, and reporting to the layer above, is restrictive in this sense.? It hampers “looking over the parapet” and exploring the scope for pivoting from business as usual.?

It was asked to what extent there is over-focus on the emissions metric.? It was felt that re-labelling a general-purpose financial product to slot into a transition role would be tricky, and that progress requires specific bonds or other products.? Once again, a considerable force at work here, is the “fear” of greenwashing labels that inhibit progress.? This comes out of a fear of ambiguity in definitions – so practices which clarify transition merit are a key tool in diminishing such fear.?

Questions were asked from the audience around the precise definitions of “transition”, with specific reference to landscaping transformations, of which reforestation is one example.? An example in which the inference of various lobbying groups has been detrimental to progress.?

For my part, the interesting omission from this session, was the omission of any reference to initiatives which reduce energy consumption and their role in transition.? Are they being adequately captured in taxonomies??

Session 2:? Case study - Transition finance in action

Daniel Hanna , Andrew Cunningham

The case study treated here is that of GeoPura , which in case you don’t know is the largest provider of green hydrogen in the UK.? Now of course the subject of green hydrogen provision and its best use is a technically involved one, of which views abound – and the intention here is not to go into the details of that.? Suffice to say that a key activity to date has been the replacement of surprisingly widespread diesel generation.? What hydrogen’s best role in a wider long-term transition is not the subject of this discussion, but rather the financing history of this initiative, from an engineer who started his own company from scratch, in league with a large bank – Barclays.

The ability of large corporates was alluded to - the existence of very large companies with their own “armies” of technical and commercial professionals.? For small and mid-size enterprises (SME’s) the story is a bit different. In such roles, banks need to be a partner.? More than that, without pretending they are engineering concerns, they need to have some internal base knowledge of transition technologies.? That is because everyone is busy, and educating partners is time consuming.? Hence a need for more people in a bridging role between banking and technical deployments.

While the need for ultimate scaling is recognised as an aspect of commerciality, it was also stressed that things don’t have to be scaled immediately.? The imperative is to start now and do something.

When asked what policy makers and government lenders like UK infrastructure bank (UKIB) can do more of, the replies were surprisingly blunt.? Banning stuff. Saying clearly what we won’t do.? Providing policy certainty on what will be phased out by some date.? In GeoPura’s context, the item of example was the diesel generator, but the point was a wider one.? The importance of finance innovators in financing technical innovators – such as Carbon13 ( https://carbonthirteen.com/ ) was recognised.?

Session 3:? Scaling up transition finance solutions: general purpose corporate financing vs labelled products (e.g. green/sustainability/transition linked bonds? & loans)

Caroline Phillips , Nicola Doria , Sean Kidney , Gemma Lawrence-Pardew

Reference was made right at the start to the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI) gold standard of verifiers ( www.climatebonds.net/certification/approved-verifiers ).? This in the context of scaling up dedicated procedures for transition financing.? Key to that of course is the recurring topic of defining transition, and on that there is many different views and perspectives.? What, for example, is the end state of transition – sustainability?? Is transition just about emissions?? Is it about climate adaption?? What about “Just” transition, i.e. as including a social justice component?? Is it the preclusion of involvement with any carbon intensive assets, and what prejudices might be incurred against emerging economies?

These aspects of definition are tricky, and if definitions can’t be agreed, it affects the ability to scale-up.?

Time, expertise, and cost are all involved in the development of linked financial instruments, and ultimately entity specific transition plans are necessary, but this is complex and where markets falter, often throwing it in a too hard bucket.? The lack of suitable labels and of granular sector pathways leads to squabbling and again, fears of reputational risk. Importantly, the two aspects of success are to be recognised.? Success guarantee doesn’t just come with money.? Commercial success is one aspect, a pre-requisite for success, but so too is success in terms of impact.

Interestingly, it was acknowledged that labelled financial products are not what will drive a transition.? That instead, is really about the regulatory environment, and not least, what government can do to support such products.?

That said, climate bonds are important and draw attention to the issue.? Canada recently became the 40th country with relevant taxonomies ( https://climateinstitute.ca/next-steps-for-canadas-climate-investment-taxonomy ), and specific labelling of this kind has been very useful.? The recent inflation reduction act (IRA) initiative in the US is also significant for unlocking relevant finance ( https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/inflation-reduction-act? ).

On the whole though, organised guidance for transition pathways are still evolving.? There is the problem that discussion of transition frequently draws the criticism “It’s too hard”, but as it was noted - What do we expect? “It’s gonna be hard”.? The goal is something that meets the science, and something that corporations can do.? Corporates can’t however do it on their own.? There also needs to be credible transition pathway work in a technical sense, from experts in transition.? That’s not the banks.? To avoid the reputational risk of greenwashing, transition needs to be enacted fully engaged with credible technical professional expertise.

The importance of small to mid-sized enterprise business (SME’s) was recognised.? As identified by the World Bank, they represent 90% of business conducted globally, 50% of employment, and as much as 40% of income in emerging economies.

Any transition that does not address SME needs does not transition. To date however, the UK and other governments have largely focused on the large corporations.? SME’s are they key, and it’s all about the outcome.? Drilling down into the needs and dynamics of SME’s is critical path – and deforestation has been a prime example.?

The creation, for example of relatively complex regulatory initiatives such as the involved EU Green Bond standard ( https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/european-green-bond-standard-supporting-transition_en ) may have negative impacts for SME's, if they are discouraged to enter the debt capital market because they lack resource to comply with such extensive reporting and review requirements.?

Conversation returned to greenwashing.? The acknowledgement, lest it was not obvious, that it is a thing.? Compliance with “do no significant harm” criteria are required, and the detailed due diligence involved in accomplishing that, it was noted, is not possible from banks.? Yet “signing up” and getting it wrong carries litigation risk, and hence legal departments of companies can be cautious about alignment with taxonomies such as the EU.? It is difficult to jump on board with regulation and taxonomies when a company’s confidence is lacking in the internal ability to assess technical compliance.

For all the challenges, the EU is a good primer for what needs to happen.? While the insistence on regulation is something the EU is perhaps infamous for, it is borne out of the necessity of coordinating 27 countries.? Any attempts at global coordination of 197 countries therefore do well to look at what goes on there.? There aren’t so many international templates lurking that it can be ignored.? The GBS, or EU green bond standard ( https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/european-green-bond-standard-supporting-transition_en)? is voluntary and aspirational.?

Other initiatives, such as ESME’s vision with raising of secondary public offerings (SPO’s - www.natwestgroup.com/news-and-insights/feature-content/our-updates/2011-2020/esme-loans-now-offered-directly-to-natwest-sme-customers-.html ) did not persist and apart from pandemic obstacles, suffered from credibility issues.?

The requirement for transition plans is a recurring theme, but there is an important need to synchronise with other markets and “to be a taker, not just a generator”.? The need to help international investors navigate and bridge the rafts of different regulations.? This is where London’s experience as a financial market can offer a great service to international investors.? This is achieved not by reinventing the wheel, though a significant degree of new invention may be required, it is achieved by understanding and embracing the regulatory approaches of other financial markets, of which subsidy arrangements in Asia are also notable.? It was noted the last thing needed is some government minister to start reinventing wheels.

Having observed that ministerial tinkering is not required in a market standards perspective, there is also recognition that a focus on planning transitions has to come from government level.? It is step 1 and not the opposite.? Financial markets are not going to lead governments into a transition, it will be the reverse.

A discussion of the importance of recognised KPI’s (key performance indicators) followed, with mention of metrics relating to emissions, but also metrics relating to the SPTI methodology (https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/financial-ratios/SPTI).

A question was asked was how to facilitate the change from voluntary participation in regulatory frameworks, to ubiquitous participation – and who should be requiring it.? Again, the response here was that it is the role of governments, not the financial sector. Big investors recognise critical forward risk issues, including the risk of bankruptcy due to political changes, or major economic changes.? Pension funds are big investors in transition finance but have been overwhelmed by a lack of consistency in transition finance regulation ( www.omfif.org/2024/07/pension-funds-overwhelmed-by-inconsistent-transition-regulations ).? At the same time big investors are not unaware of directions – for example the imminent dramatic impact on the oil and gas industry with ongoing automotive industry change. Some countries have been better than others at pre-emptively identifying such trends in the past, including Denmark and Singapore.

This recognition of significant forward risk coincides with transition goals.? Planning for it coincides with provision of long-term sustainable returns. The recognition of long-term sustainability is at the core of transition finance activation and forward risk aversion.?

At the same time, there was recognition of a need to engage with the transition of oil and gas sector assets and not to throw them in the “untouchable” basket.? If big investors don’t do this, it “will fall to some dastardly private equity financier who will do it under cover”.

Session 4:? The role of public finance institutions in developing blended finance to de-risk transition financing

Scott James O'Brien , James Emmett , Dr Rhian-Mari Thomas OBE , Mark Munro

Blended finance?is the use of catalytic (seed) capital from public or philanthropic sources to increase private sector investment in sustainable development.? First-up, GFI group ( www.gfigroup.co.uk ) got a mention as a “nexus of the private-public sector”.? An example of real economy transition – noting “collaboration doesn’t happen by osmosis” while also noting the key forthcoming role in the UK of the “National Wealth Fund”, i.e. the artist formerly known as UKIB (UK Infrastructure Bank).

Some of the objectives of the fund were listed, but also prefaced by the question “what does infrastructure mean?” – of course a key question for any historical UKIB initiatives.? Criteria and direction in the past have included “where the public sector can do it [attract investment], we will stand back”.? Regional and local economic growth, as you’d expect from a bank, is the aim, on projects above ￡25 million, measured against three key performance indicators fundamentally set by parliament. Namely: (i) achieve climate change and regional growth policy objectives, (ii) generate a positive financial return (between 2.5% and 4% return on equity) and (iii) attract private investment.? Implicit in the directive is an expectation of [sometimes] making losses – concomitant with coming in at an early stage.? Not as an objective, but as a reality check of the risk in early-stage projects.

The emphasis is on “crowd-in” and not “crowd-out” investment.? Crowding-in?describes an increase in government spending leading to more private investment. Public investment in this ideal makes the private sector more productive, and government spending can send signals that have a stimulative effect on an economy.? The danger being the reverse, crowding out, when government investment de-stimulates investment by its own seeking of capital driving up investment rates and the cost of borrowing for private capital.

The public sector though, is at the end of the day taxpayer money, so the focus is directed into five key themes – energy, transport, digitalisation, water, and waste.? A key example of the bank in action is the National Wealth Fund’s (NWF) investment in semi-conductor research and development (https://www.ukib.org.uk/news/bank-announces-ps60-million-direct-equity-investment-boost-uk-supply-chain-semiconductors).

Not to be outdone, the closely co-operating Scottish National Investment Bank (SNIB) was also birthed of an act of parliament and adopts these transition finance principles: 1) the climate emergency and net zero objectives; 2) demographic inversion – by virtue of harnessing in-migration to redress inequality and 3) Deploying people and community assets to empower transition.? Indeed, the three values espoused by the bank are “Purpose, passion, and people”.? The SNIB often attracts attention by virtue of its willingness to engage with companies possessing oil and gas revenue.

The intention of both banks in a transition context, is to take on technical and early market risk, and encourage consistent manageable pathways to transition.? It was noted though, that as always, the devil is in the detail.? The ambition to decarbonise and accelerate permitting is of course reflected in the commissioning of GB Energy ( www.gov.uk/government/publications/introducing-great-british-energy ) by the UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero. To quote the minster’s introduction to the founding statement:

?“Great British Energy, [is] a publicly?owned company headquartered in Scotland to invest in clean, home?grown energy… Great British Energy stems from a simple idea: that the British people should have a right to own and benefit from our natural resources. That these resources belong to all of us and should be harnessed for the common good. We already have public ownership of energy in this country, by foreign governments… We [Britain] have tremendous advantages: from our long coastlines and shallow waters to our skilled energy workforce, with deep experience in offshore industries and cutting?edge technologies. The only thing that’s missing is a long?term plan to harness these significant assets”

To these goals, the fragmentation and complexity of climate financing poses obstacles.? There is a cost to complexity and the national wealth fund will be proactive in reviewing this. The goal is to slip public finance institutions “into the right slot”, by understanding disruptive business models, new technologies, key performance indicators, and addressing lack of certainty – risk.? There is recognition that to many investors this “all just looks like risk”.? The provision of “revenue certainty mechanisms” that the private sector just can’t be expected to do, is a feature.?

The UK of course cannot operate on the scale of President Biden’s ?$369 billion IRA (Inflation Reduction Act -? https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1128 ).? There is however recognition of a need, if not to “pick winners”, then to establish the criteria which define them. An implicit understanding that the public purse is not big enough to fund everything and “fire on all cylinders” – a need for prioritisation. ?Also, the significance of concessionary mechanisms, e.g. funding in which the government or another public entity grants a private sector entity the right to manage and operate specific public assets, such as infrastructure, real estate, or natural resources.

While the theme of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) is “let’s get things done” the question is of course, which things.? The UKIB/NWF has ￡28 billion to deploy and deals are in the pipeline.? Topics on the radar include diversity of supply chains, the grid, and skills development.

A recent example of note is the UKIB/NWF funding of XLCC, a Scottish company involved in the development of HVDC technology (High Voltage Direct Current, as per a recent Shetlands -UK mainland link).? This is interesting because it also represents a new direction of venturing into development expenditure (DEVEX) at a technological readiness level (TRL) of about 6 ( www.ukri.org/councils/stfc/guidance-for-applicants/check-if-youre-eligible-for-funding/eligibility-of-technology-readiness-levels-trl/ ).?

In Scotland a key focus is also on seed capital with Scottish Enterprise, giving growth capital ahead of other institutions, and looking for a very modest commercial return of 2.5% ( www.scottish-enterprise.com ), looking for impact – significant “position change”, and with special emphasis around SME’s and? transition plans. ?The modest expectation of return highlights the investment in mobilisation – jokingly it was suggested “Frankly, if we get money back it’s embarrassing”. ?The goals clearly include, but also extend beyond commercial returns.? Investigation of the requirements of investors in the UK and Scotland is also a key theme, as is supporting education efforts in this respect, such as Strathclyde Business School ( www.strath.ac.uk/business/accountingfinance ).

It is clear that public finance needs to step it up and to date it has done some things well.? The early-stage innovation has been done well, but “horribly missing is the middle bit” – the next step gap.? The bridge between early-stage projects and mature ones is not in place, and innovators maturing through the early stages are currently being left high and dry.

Also noted is the role of insurers.? Energy risk insurers have an astute handle on the subject and where perception of risk is the goal, discussion with the insurance sector is key.?

The call is for intelligent capital with informed risk taking, and as always knowing when to exit – for both good reasons of success, and not so good reasons of failure.? That translates into a prioritisation of capital, based on both commercial and impact criteria.? What does that intelligence consist of?? Identifying weaknesses and making difficult decisions of where investment can can’t happen.? An interesting example of the former involved tidal energy, which although only ever capable of providing something of the order of 1-2% of baseload, is nevertheless considered helpful from investment criteria in also presenting local first mover advantage.

Discussion returned again to the fundamental importance of skills in bridging the risk gap.? Increasingly publicly funded financiers are taking on that extra risk, and increasingly absorbing more of the skills involved to do so intelligently. ?Meanwhile, the transition is already happening in spending terms, and it was noted a race is on.? In that context a race to net zero is also for financial markets a race for investment.? That includes co-investment with government.? That also involves picking the industries a country, UK inclusive, has competitive advantage in.? Yet the UK it is noted, has form.? The private finance initiative can do it? ( https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/public-private-partnerships ).

Session 5:? Market tools to unlock private finance for nascent technologies: including mandatory, voluntary and international carbon markets, insurance and private capital

Matt Townsend , Chris Leeds , Julian Richardson , Giulia Carbone

Any discussion of tools in transition, also has to first grasp “transition to what?”.? Climate and nature-based equity, voluntary carbon markets, etc., are they all “transition tools”?? A transition also has to be “nature proof” and “people proof” in the sense that transition alone is no help if nature and people are adversely compromised in the process. ?Very topical in light of a “Biodiversity COP” happening in Colombia soon ( www.worldbiodiversitysummit.org ).

The rapid development of carbon markets is an ongoing and accelerating phenomenon.? It is just one of the tools available to transition but is pivotal to it.? New innovations – whatever the technical judgements of them are occurring all the time (e.g. Standard Chartered:? www.sc.com/en/press-release/new-deal-demonstrates-opportunity-to-scale-finance-for-carbon-removals ; www.sc.com/en/about/sustainability/position-statements/climate-change? ).? The goal [of Standard Chartered] is to mobilise ￡300 billion using carbon markets to address carbon footprints in the developing world.?

This is where most of the spend is occurring, and money goes seven times further in terms of what it can achieve, in India compared to say, France. That matters.? The focus is putting money into projects that would not get it otherwise.? Lots of challenges exist, but improving the quality of carbon projects is the aim – not just commercially, but in terms of impact.? A critical path question though, is how to derisk, and how to transfer risk.? It is not so impossible, and bringing in insurance is a well-trodden path for risk of many kinds, and so too it can be for transition planning.

Risk is a key barrier to enabling capital deployment.? There are the familiar commercial risks of equity trading, but equally there are other things beyond control, such as wars, pandemics, natural disasters.? Such things are possible to treat probabilistically and here the insurance sector excels, even amidst changing parameters and variables of a climate emergency.?

The risks associated with transition need not be an exception.? There is great complexity in different transition pathways, and complexity creates uncertainty.? This however need not be a showstopper.? Munich Re has taken on the risks of offshore wind and associated cable development, in 1400 projects globally.? The insurers are good at statistical data documentation over time, and this makes them less averse to long-term considerations.? In consequence insurance for battery storage projects of 20-year duration, or solar PV projects of 30-year duration, pose no particular obstacle.?

Technology risks can be handled in the technology “world”, as can geopolitical risk.? The City of London and the “EC3 triangle” is huge in global insurance, containing fully 50% of global energy underwriting.? There is literally no financial centre in the world better placed to assess risks associated with transition planning, than London.?

A dimension to the discussion that is more than just a nuance, is the financing of not just projects that mitigate emissions, or remove emissions, but those that reduce emissions by reducing energy usage in the first place.? In the day’s panels, this was the first one to acknowledge the role energy use reduction can play – and it is telling that it is the insurance discussion which brought it to the forefront.?

Removal technologies are a more nuanced affair.? There is a regular theme of “removal technologies need scaling” but the technical question of can they all be scaled, and if not, which ones can, seems less regularly asked.? Presuming that all carbon removal technologies can be scaled is not a technical given. When that is true, the importance of infrastructures to help reduce demand is enhanced even further. In effective transition, arguably it is the most important objective.

The complexity of transition pathways ensures that every project is different, and discerning “what is in fashion” and “what is accurate” is a key priority.? The goal is not after all short-term commercial opportunity, but long-term commercially profitable transition. Avoidance of where the risks are, is part of the objective, but the complexity of the task also assures that we are always going to get it wrong sometimes.? No organisation can expect a 100% perfect track record of success on something so complex.? The presence of an insurance sector ensures that this is not a road-block.

The fact that things will not always proceed as expected, especially if public finance is involved, highlights the need for rigorous auditing – publicly if the public is involved, not just of commercial success, but of transition impact endowed by a project (or not).? This not to point the finger, but to learn.?

The voluntary carbon market might never have a commercial return, and that can be problematic.? Yet it was noted there is “no net zero without nature [intact]”.? In this context the carbon market is a means to an end and not an end-in-itself.? To encourage participation requires some kind of government role in providing recognition of participation – but not a handout.

The recognition prevailed throughout the session, that there exists now, for UK and London in particular, a once in a lifetime opportunity to design transition guardrails and framework for transition planning.? References to other markets and learning from them, such as widely reported mistakes in the Californian offsets market, should be taken on board fully. ?Mistakes are a guide too.? The objective in theory is “let’s bring about a boring market”.? That however is notoriously difficult to implement with offsets.?

One option is to acknowledge the risk of dodgy offsets, but to continue encouraging investment in them, The problem arises, because issuers also want the option to “tear them up later” if they prove to be false or confusing the issue.? This practice though, on its own, fights against itself.? To combat this conundrum, Munich Re deployed a tool of “invalidation risk” – simply another risk and another set of insurance, to provide those who invest in offsets with invalidation insurance - in the eventuality offsets are later rendered ineffectual by assessors. It is a both an enabler of the offset market, and an assurance that necessary technical assessment and auditing of offsetting effectiveness does not block the market.??

The diversity of carbon pricing mechanisms entering the market is notable, with more and more devices at play.? There has in part been a forcing of the issue because one of the world’s largest markets – Europe, is doing it already.? This forces indigenous markets, at least those who want to sell to Europe - into a position where they might as well do it for themselves.?? Yet 197 countries having to agree on regulation and mechanisms, or at least instill some kind of regulatory symbiosis, is tough. That makes voluntary carbon markets helpful.? They allow progress in the interim prior to any unanimity of approach and condition markets for convergence. ?The move towards common standards is the ambition, and core carbon principles from organisations like ICVCM are examples of what might be possible ( https://icvcm.org/core-carbon-principles ).

The requirement is to create an international level playing field that also addresses externalities.? The process of offshoring emissions has for example proven a popular "sidestep" and destructive of real progress. It has also, as a negative side-effect, offshored employment too.? The goal is to lift everyone up to shared desired levels, and not, importantly, to descend to the lowest common denominator.

Session 6:? The role of investors in transition finance

Kerri King , Tom Tayler , Bridget Beals , Annika Brouwer r

In opening remarks to the session, it was noted the transition is not fast enough or large enough.?? An “exponential curve” to sectors’ transition efforts is required.? That does not give the luxury of time for an “organic transition”. It was suggested it has to be directed, and involve “banning more stuff”.? Normally transitions would happen organically – that is to say – nurtured by the market.? In this instance though, what cannot happen is to allow government to “devolve transition”.? No slippy-shoulders allowed for government on this one. To be fair, most governments get that, but whether they get the extent to which it is true, is more debatable.

The market is a social construct and can be built differently.? Amen. This cannot be said enough. The tail does not wag the dog. The incentives are not currently aligned, in that it still makes a lot of money to invest in things that are not aligned, incompatible even, with transition goals.?? The market is putting money into capacities the IEA says we don’t need and the IPCC says the planet can’t bear.? The implication is that transition financing needs regulation.

Bringing such change to the market is not trivial and involves transition finance products, labelling strategies and policies & incentives. It was noted “Cash is King” but the question is, should it be?? Should we be unlocking barriers to change that system? Investing in transition markets and noting the differences between developed and emerging markets.?

Some of the biggest pools of cash, such as pension funds, suffer from the problem of lack of allocation [to transition finance].? The size of the number is irrelevant, however impressive the trillions might sound at first glance, and what matters is the percentage allocation.? When we become lazy in allocation, we become impaired in ability to transition.

The perceived risk of transition projects is in general greater than the actual risk, putting risk perception in the front row of barriers to transition.? Another hurdle is the scale of infrastructure required for transition in emerging countries.? Many emerging asset infrastructure funds only deal with public/private debt/equity sizes above $100 million, whereas emerging markets typically need $10-50 million.? This mismatch of loan size supply and demand is impairing emerging market progress.

Another emerging market hurdle is too stringent criteria for embedded emissions.? In African economies where the embedded emissions are often higher because economies have been fossil-fuel based for so long, arranging transition finance for projects that have embedded emission thresholds set too low - blows any attempt at progress out of the water.? There is a need to accept that transition financing can start from a higher embedded emissions base in such economic "landscapes", in order to progress.

Also problematic is that information is not feeding back into the system.? Characteristically this is because “The wrong people are in the room”.? It is very rare the investors are in the room where projects are assessed, and decisions made.? Instead the echo-chambers of confirmation bias persist.? Rather than the CFO, it is the risk officer and the sceptics/cynics required in the room, to stress test assertions of progress and impact.? The UK may well have a role, given its diversity of expertise, in providing “the right people in the room” as a service.

Engaging and pushing from both above and below is required.? Shouting at everybody.? Getting the right people in the room and starting to think differently.? Recognising the past is not an accurate guide to the future. Let's say that again. The past is not an accurate guide to the future. New market entrants will come through, and it will not be the incumbents that dominate.? New entrants find it easier to scale, and it is the mindsets that are as much a challenge as the numbers. New entrants are more adept at bringing with them those new mindset.

A requirement is to block the blockers, unblock the blocked and to increasingly bring private equity to the transition table – one they are conspicuously absent from. Yet that said, private equity already sees value is going to shift.? The challenge is to get on with doing it, with clear underpinning of sustainable funds, and increasing clarity from a technical perspective on what is and isn’t sustainable investment. Ensuring that feet are held to the fire to actually deliver.? In the UK the most obvious example has been bold innovation in offshore wind, and where such things occur, an imperative is to not shoot them down.??

Given the current progress, it is important to be glass-half-full in approach.? The outcome matters and the pace matters but motivations may vary.? Whoever is not against us is for us. At the core of progress are real life case studies – where is the proof of the pudding. How do we find them, how do we scale them.?? In emerging markets debt is the instrument for transition activation, occurring through private companies - notably in Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Kenya and Indonesia.? Strong transition policy is the starting point. Auditing systems are fundamental to maintain momentum.

Disaggregating finance is seen as pivotal to change.? Ensuring the transition makes more money than business as usual, mobilising money, and making it global.? The target is risk takers, and risk takers are competitive, so the question arises, how do we make the transition competitive?

Transition finance needs to be available and intellectually honest.? What are the products actually, and are they being labelled correctly?? Not infrequently, transition finance products are not being intellectually honest about what is being launched, and the whole process of launching them is scattergun, failing to enlist the relevant communication powerhouses.?? Amidst all this, there is the reality check that it is fundamentally hard to run commercial & infrastructure funds in emerging countries.? It is intensive and requires boots on the ground – enlisting the right people is the biggest win.? Those who can truly transcend the boundaries are few and far between.?

A need also exists to stop looking for shortcuts.? Proper information and proper due diligence, acknowledging the responsibility to others’ money, not least much of the time, taxpayers.? Making required transition plans without fully-fledged information is a hazardous pastime, and while perhaps a necessary one in the interim, closing those gaps is desirable.? Without that, we start to fund “brown” rather than “green”.

The other key aspect is timescale, and the readiness to invest in the long term.? Many business plans are doing well if they extend beyond 1-2 years.? To routinely extend beyond that is challenging, and yet there are sectors on the front-line of change where reality is forcing the issue.? Real estate is a good example, where premiums are being adjusted to recognise real manifesting effects playing out on long timescales.? Getting the “risk people” in at the start is key, and as said previously, if it is risk you want to understand, insurers are the go-to sector.? Not only do they know risk, “they are scared”.? The changes piling up before us are not made up and they are amongst a few sectors to be truly perceiving it.?

Session 7:? Transition plans as an integral element of transition finance, including metrics and KPIs

Spencer Powell , Kate Levick , James Close , Ion Visinovschi

“The missing middle” remains a key challenge for transition finance, i.e. the bit between early-stage seed capital, and later big infrastructure investment.? Science-based pathways are how corporates communicate progress and metrics are key for holding them to account.? The Transition Plan Finance Taskforce ( https://transitiontaskforce.net ), CGFI ( www.cgfi.ac.uk/2023/03/gfs2023-cgfi-transition-finance ) ?TGFI ( Tokyo Green Finance Initiative) and the IFRS foundation ( www.ifrs.org ) are amongst those attempting to implement standards.

Closer to home, NatWest is undergoing its third climate transition plan ( https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/sustainability/decarbonisation-of-the-uk-economy.html ) which includes disclosure standards at a high level, and the bank claims climate is now embedded in how it does business. ?The Planet Tracker think tank meanwhile ( https://planet-tracker.org ) continues to be push industry to become more sustainable, with a nature-driven focus, in companion to its sister organisation Carbon Tracker ( https://carbontracker.org ) focusing on the hard-to-abate sectors.? Assessments like the C100+ lists ( www.climateaction100.org/whos-involved/companies ) also provide guidance, reducing climate change risk for corporations.

The close relationship with corporations is key.? When companies are honest as to what isn’t working, those form opportunities, and an example provided was SAF’s falling short ?(sustainable aviation fuels).

When it comes to key performance indicators (KPI’s) measuring transition performance, what is looked for??

1.?????? Governance is a key aspect – that is to say remuneration of management and the executive linked to decarbonisation targets.

2.?????? There needs to be strategy.? Targets are nice, but strategies are how to activate.?

3.?????? The DEVEX and CAPEX behind a project is key.? A plan is fine, but if there is no spend behind it, it is irrelevant.

4.?????? The must be linking to key disclosures that get quantitative – including quantification of physical risks.

The Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTI - https://sciencebasedtargets.org/sectors/financial-institutions ) is another group seeking to provide validation, including assessments of sector carbon and transition intensities.? The challenge is translating validation into something meaningful within organisations, as a mobiliser, and cascading to operational level.? Turning the “what” into “how” with customer engagement, feeding into the front-line of transition.? Establishing the platforms for that engagement.

How to transition as whole, with customers in mind, is at the forefront of objectives.? Holistically enabling activities, including policy, and lending less to high emitting industries; providing green, sustainability and transition bonds.? Working towards key identified goals, such as voltage optimisation to reduce energy consumption ( https://energyace.co.uk/what-is-voltage-optimisation ).

Business strategy is key, it’s not all about KPI’s.? That includes:

1.?????? Not just an implementation strategy, but also an engagement strategy, incorporating targets, governance, financial metrics, GHG metrics, carbon credit metrics.?

2.?????? Distinctions between GHG emissions abatement or removal, or displacement, and the wider context of the quantities involved, and understanding the implications of full and partial life cycle assessments in their impact on those metrics, and associated subjectivities.

3.?????? Prioritising investment on the basis of those metrics.

The importance of data in all these assessments and transition planning was stressed, including the complex integration of scope 3 emissions.? Yet management teams often give blank looks when asked for a transition strategy.? Transition plans are inherently dependent on data and its consistency.? Not only that but ability to interpret it.? Scope 3 emissions for example become challenging, including the potential for double counting.? Remembering though that the reason for all this effort is to reduce emissions.?Throwing up the hands, shrugging shoulders, and saying too hard - not an option.

The more this data is standard, the better.? It removes underlying volatility, and addresses the risk that people lose confidence in disclosures.??? High disclosure standards are meaningless without confidence in the numbers. ?Data allows assessment of how companies are performing against plans, but building capacity within an organisation for carbon treatment requires a mindset change.

Key disclosures are important, but another gap is linking to expected outcomes, and there things are simply hard.? The science can’t always agree on an expected outcome, and sometimes can’t even agree on an expected range.? That though, should not really be a showstopper.? It begs the question whether some of the basic tools of probability and statistics are being deployed as they should be.

It remains the case that good transition plans are rare – it is a learning curve.? Companies are nervous about making transition plans and being punished for the effort.? Things are however swinging the other way, as companies also realise the risks of not disclosing transition plans.? A good transition plan will increasingly become a protection from the risks of non-disclosure.?

The ambition is to bring companies big in energy to the process with enthusiasm, not out of regulatory compliance, but out of genuine recognition of value.

The challenge is a big one, and it is to think not in sectors, but in systems.? Systems thinking rules the day.? Sectors in isolation are not enough, and their interconnectedness is a fundamental part of the consideration.? Creating more credit-worthy supply and reducing risk is better achieved by integrating sectors and the materials they depend on.?

These levels of innovation are tough to get to, and innovation is constantly leapfrogged, but a lot can be built around the disclosures provided.? Artificial intelligence is increasing its reach and markets are getting smarter.? This raises the agenda deep within supply chains.? Ultimately that has to happen.? Things must occur in a much more holistic manner than is currently the case.?

Disclosure standards are advancing, including the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISBB? www.ifrs.org/sustainability/knowledge-hub/introduction-to-issb-and-ifrs-sustainability-disclosure-standards ) and in Europe the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD www.corporate-sustainability-due-diligence-directive.com ). Insistence on transition plan disclosures is “happening everywhere at once” and they are converging in nature.?

While carbon intensity incentives can be based on good data, the social side of transition is harder to quantify, and there are significant social challenges.? It can’t be solved specifically and ultimately involves engaging in wider advocacy.? Understanding that if some activities are closing down, where those people are going, and facilitating movement into sectors the transition can support. ?The support for smaller business in transition – the ones that often fall under the radar - is also a key part of the social aspects. Procurement policies for example can have big impacts, positive and negative, on small suppliers.? Being alert to that, with corresponding investment in them to help them in transition - is helpful.?

What is emerging is that any transition plan is not just highly technical, it is also far more strategic and rounded on many levels, with an enormous diversity of impacts and dependencies. This is where "the right people in the room" and people in general - all affected - comes in.?

A good example of sector transition planning is the Tourism Panel on Climate Change stocktake report? ( https://tpcc.info/stocktake-report ).? The Transition Plan Taskforce Framework is also an example of what can be achieved ( https://transitiontaskforce.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/TPT_Disclosure-framework-2023.pdf

Session 8: Lessons from international developments in transition finance and the need to work towards international harmonisation of standards reflecting regional and national pathways

Mark Manning , Chee Hao Lam , Pietro R. occo , Bridget Beals

Credible transition plans form the bedrock of forward transition progress.? They will be different in different places, but harmonisation and interoperability are in everyone’s interests.?? That calls for a principle-based nature and flexibility in standards, but demands for certainty do require definitions. How activity will be perceived by participants, public, and regulators, is important.

The work of the International Standards Organisation (ISO - https://www.iso.org/home.html) provides an important vehicle for net-zero standards right across economies.? The international standards and frameworks environment is vast, and organisations like Carbon Trust ( www.carbontrust.com ) are diving in the deep ends.? The need for harmonisation is paramount, but it is a tricky balance of not being too prescriptive where there are genuine differences across countries and sectors. ?Emerging markets have the need for capacity building and assistance – and at a regulatory level.? Yet transition finance is evolving at such a speed it is hard for anyone to keep up with the various capacities.? That is a call to action.? Capital needs to flow effectively to emerging markets, crowding in and not crowding out.? Does more risk taking need to take place, and if so, what are the enablers for that?

The requirements of profitability have to be married to science-aligned decarbonisation pathways and that is a tricky combo.? Technology exists to help but the price tags in billions are challenging.? How to tackle it is a problem.? To advance correctly may at times involve going slower – balancing commercial and transition aspects and not taking one forward without the other.? And where that balance is gotten wrong, explaining why it doesn’t work, including to government.

National transition plans are all the rage, including sector-specific ones, but their potency is very much a function of government rubber-stamping.? Where “green” initiatives are easy to generate enthusiasm for, the greening of “brown” assets is more complicated, and more ambiguously received.? Including from elected governments that are only too aware of public perception.

Singapore has long been at the forefront of innovation and its ambitions for innovation in the transition arena is noted. Its attempts to scale up transition in the region have three key themes – standards, solutions, skills.? Transition activity taxonomies and international organisations to develop pathways are seen as integral to developing strategies and testing solutions – including routes for both credit and loans. The importance and example of government participation though, is seen as crucial.? Once government comes to the table with concessionary capital (i.e. better than the open market to promote certain goals) – it sets the ball rolling.

Needless to say, Singapore’s focus has been Asia.? A realm of 3000 coal fired power plants, many of which are at relatively young stages – 10-15 years into ostensibly 50 year lifetimes – so providing transition credit to retire early is a challenging issue.? Two pilot projects are ongoing in the Philippines ( www.straitstimes.com/singapore/philippines-singapore-organisations-join-hands-on-project-for-early-coal-plant-retirement ).?

Capacity building – especially skills - is at the core of Singapore’s lead, generating more talent, with new courses to train effectively.? Singapore is also proving an excellent example on sectorial pathways and in its partnership with organisations like the IEA.?

The very specific challenges of emerging markets are so often wrapped up in capacity.? There is huge appetite in Development Finance Institutions ( DFI’s - www.iea.org/commentaries/the-role-of-development-finance-institutions-in-energy-transitions ) not just to take part financially in the transition, but to participate with technical assistance.? In house training programmes increasingly cover a huge range of understanding. There are typically big pushes from HQ’s globally to achieve transition goals, but varying ability at “site office” level to deal with that.? There is perhaps not enough discussion of DFI’s collaborating to deliver something truly global.

For all the good talk, collaboration not in conferences, but in getting deals done - is the requirement. It is not possible either, to always rely on government to finance everything, even if the lead steer must come from there.? Insurance products and solutions are another important source of finance and risk mitigation.? Wherever the money comes from though, collaboration particularly in the post-deal sharing of information is critical path - if we hope to avoid continually reinventing the wheel.? That involves market development of structural mechanisms informed by, and informing, government, business, finance, and civil society.

Singapore’s experience in trying to shift standards is that there are a LOT of taxonomies, and this brings confusion.? The drive is to bring a consistent set of taxonomies, consistent across Asia, and eventually the world, with harmonisation of taxonomies such as: the EU IPSF platform ( https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/international-platform-sustainable-finance_en ); The Singapore-Asia taxonomy ( www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2023/mas-launches-worlds-first-multi-sector-transition-taxonomy ); People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Green Bond Catalogue ( www.greenomy.io/blog/chinas-green-bond-catalogue-and-green-finance ).

With hard-to-abate steel and concrete industries, and 6000 coal plants globally, there is no overestimating the size of the task, and no-leeway to build new plants.? Transitioning existing plants to renewables is perceived as key, but there is a need to let industry inform, what the impediments are to that.? Singapore’s blended finance Fast-P initiative has been established to facilitate such goals with a target of USD 5 billion in capital raising ( https://fintechnews.sg/81481/green-fintech/singapore-launches-us5-billion-fast-p-initiative-for-climate-action-in-asia ).

The Carbon Trust is also particularly focused on the coal transition and observes a widespread lack of familiarity with what phase-out involves at a decommissioning and repurposing level.? The impact of coal transition alone could be massive, and yet investing in anything to do with coal at all is a minefield for investors, even transitioning.?

Session 9: Developing a robust data and disclosure ecosystem

Martina Macpherson , Sue Armstrong Brown , Elena Pérez Celis

Global disclosure is an ambitious goal but allows appropriate allocation of capacity.? Initiatives that are clearly “green” in root have an established audience but activating finance for projects that are “brown” to start with and “becoming green” is harder.?

With all due respect and compassion to those that still suffer from leprosy in a modern world, a largely but not totally eradicated disease, the ancient fear of leprosy seems an interesting analogue to what has been alluded to in a number of panels.? While all players in the transition finance scene are enthusiastically cheering on ambitions of “transition” healing for sufferers, those willing to actually touch the ailing, are fewer and further between.

Avoiding labels of greenwashing is a key obstacle, and that isn’t going to go away totally.? Likely there is a need to be made of sterner stuff.? Avoiding greenwashing labels can be helped though, through data ratings and products embedded in real technical audit of decarbonisation progress.? There is still risk in touching that which is feared as untouchable, but gloves are available.

Quality of reliable data, and the integration of risk – including probability – is where advance lies.? It begs the question whether that is happening enough.? Does it have the right priority.? Or is the “glint in the eye” of commercial opportunity being pursued with enthusiasm at the expense of rigorous technical decarbonisation audit.?

Data is where it gets real, and understanding data takes expertise.? More assistance on scope 3 emissions in particular is required, with forward looking data. Data where any uncertainty is captured with meaningful probabilistic assessment.? Where uncertainty is present, it is not a showstopper, it just calls for the deployment of greater expertise in probabilistic analysis.

Audit of impact and timescales of impact, from real case studies, is the currency of meaningful change and progress. Yet there is a lack of data, and for small and midsize enterprises (SME’s), understandably, reporting is not always a practical priority.? That is not for lack of will, but for lack of ability.? 83% of SME’s see transition as a priority, but only 10% are actually doing it.? Different data sets from different geographies and different sectors and different scales of business require different integrations to derive a holistic picture, and that is also challenging.

CDP’s global disclosure dialogue is one initiative to help take things forward (www.cdp.net/en).? A big challenge is that the nature of many projects is new, and the lifespans multi-decade.? That requires a more comprehensive approach to data capture across a huge range of parameters, from emissions, to biodiversity, to social impacts, and so on.? The dependencies, risks and opportunities are dauntingly complicated, and any hope of tackling them requires an increasingly global consistency of definitions.?

The interoperability of different approaches in different regions and sectors is an increasing priority too.? Well designed regulation is an enabler and sends a strong policy signal.? Where such things are absent, effective transition is a world away.? Disclosure expectations are rising everywhere however, and in a world of globalised trade where one big buyer cares, all begin to.? There are laggards, and proper recognition of the best is key to encouraging their mobilisation, and the ongoing motivation of those engaging effectively.?

Stock exchanges have a role to play and are independently producing their own standards, many of which are gradually aligning. The sharing of data is occurring more and more, as it is realised that we cannot finance change in what we cannot measure. Access to data is a key step, but it is not in itself assurance that data is used.? It needs to be available to those who can interpret it to be made to work as hard as possible.?

An important assistance to business of all scales, but especially smaller ones, is to ensure that data compilation and sharing need only be done once, and that it is shared at higher levels, to be used multiple times, without continually coming back to the originator in a flurry of well-meaning but repeated and inefficient time wasting.? This, appreciating that we will all be working with incomplete data all of the time, and that transparent recording of failures as well as successes is vital to progress. We are however talking huge amounts of data, so it needs to be controlled lest everyone is chaotically overwhelmed.

What is the investor ready to pay for such data management?? In asking such a question, we can recognise that the society and policy value of data goes beyond the commercial, and that itself invites contribution to its provision & maintenance from those quarters. There will always be a discrepancy between the data we want and the data we get, but reducing that discrepancy and advancing access to it generously - will be fundamental to progress.

Concluding remarks

This article deliberately does not allocate names to specific [paraphrased] quotes, yet it is a record of discussion and should be regarded in that context – not, except on occasion, a presentation of my own views, although there is much I agree with.?

The decision not to allocate quotes to people specifically is in recognition that a lot of frank discussion occurred, and out of deference to those speaking, they might not always want everything repeated too personally too widely.? That coupled with the fact that my paraphrasing might on occasion be embellished or imperfect, and I do not want to put words into mouths of people that were not said.?

Hopefully though the record provides a mostly accurate flavour of discussion, and for any imperfections I apologise in advance, mixed with gratitude to all the speakers for the frankness and breadth of the discussions. And, of course to the conference organisers, City & Financial Global , and their sponsors.? ??

Images unless otherwise stated are courtesy of Pixabay contributors.

Dave Waters

Paetoro Consulting UK Ltd

18 October 2024