Energy Report 9th October 2023

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In this edition we look at energy trends for the week of 2nd to 6th October 2023.

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International Gas Market Review

2nd oct

British short-term gas prices dropped on Friday amid forecasts of mild weather. As a result, the NBP spot price declined by 3.2% to settle at 96.50 p/therm.

Along the forward curve, the #gas price for Sum-2024 delivery decreased by 0.3% to stand at 117.63 p/therm as comfortable supply continued to weigh on prices.

3rd Oct

On Monday, British near-term gas prices decreased due to higher Norwegian gas imports. Additionally, nine LNG cargo vessels are scheduled to arrive in the UK in October. Consequently, #NBP spot tumbled by 14.5% to end at 82.50 p/therm. Along the forward curve, the Sum-24 delivery contract declined by 3.6% to end at 113.36 p/therm due to ample gas storage levels.

4th oct

British near-term gas prices fell on Tuesday amid increased Norwegian supply and stronger wind generation. Moreover, the reduced demand for natural gas for heating, due to temperatures above seasonal norms weighed on prices. As a result, NBP spot slumped by over 9% to end at 75.00 p/therm. Along the forward curve, the Sum-24 delivery contract declined by 4.8% to 107.90 p/therm, in tandem with carbon prices.

5th Oct

On Wednesday, British short-term gas prices traded higher as demand for gas for power generation increased due to forecasts of weaker wind output. Hence, the NBP spot price climbed by 3.5% to end at 77.65 p/therm. Along the forward curve, the gas price for Winter 2023 delivery advanced by about 3% to settle at 110.89 p/therm, despite ample #LNG supply and comfortable storage levels.

6th Oct

British near-term gas prices experienced a significant drop on Thursday due to increased wind energy generation and improved supply from Norway.

Consequently, the NBP spot price plummeted by more than 16% to reach 65 p/therm. Further out on the curve, the Sum-24 delivery contract saw a decrease of around 2%, settling at 108.50 p/therm, driven by the nearly full gas storage in Europe, which continued to put pressure on gas prices.

International Gas Market Review daily values table

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International Carbon Credit Pricing Analysis

2nd Oct

European carbon prices experienced a decline on Friday amid limited trading activity as the third quarter approached its end. Consequently, #EUAs expiring in Dec-23 decreased by around 1.3% to settle at 81.67 EUR/tonne.

3rd Oct

European carbon prices declined on Monday amid subdued demand and a bearish gas market. EUAs expiring in Dec-23 fell by 1.1% to 80.80 EUR/tonne.

4th Oct

European carbon prices continued the decline, hitting their lowest in four months on Tuesday due to decreased demand for EUAs, driven by reduced profit margins for coal-fired power plants. Thus, EUAs expiring in Dec-23 fell by 1.4% to 79.65 EUR/tonne.

5th Oct

European carbon prices surged by 2.5% on Wednesday to stand at 81.67 EUR/tonne, tracking a bullish energy complex.

6th Oct

#European carbon prices fell on Thursday, in tandem with a bearish energy complex. As a result, EUAs expiring in Dec-23 dropped by 1.4% to 80.51 EUR/tonne.

International Carbon Credit Pricing Analysis daily values table

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