Energy outlook for 2020? The UK according to Jamie

We'll see more records broken: 2019 saw YOY growth again for the renewable sector and I’d expect this record-breaking run to continue (not really putting a risky bet out there) but it still worth looking at the figures. Energy from wind, solar, hydro and biomass projects grew by 9% last year and was the UK’s largest electricity source in March, August, September and December (according to a report from The Carbon Brief). Making a total 48.5% of National Grid’s usage including energy imported via subsea cables – this will tip into 55-60% in 2020.

We saw the country go for its longest period since the Industrial Revolution without burning coal - over 18 days! And after this summer we’ll only have 3 coal-powered plants still in action – we’re seeing our clean energy transition right there. Whatever the political uncertainties, we’ve seen exceptional growth in our offshore wind sector, the UK are now a global leader and Mark Carney of the Bank of England also warning what future energy investments need to look like in a changing climate.

On top of the current projects in construction and further Hornsea, Doggerbank and Seagreen developments in the pipeline, it’s an exciting time for UK offshore wind.

In regards to Floating offshore wind, a special mention to the Windfloat Atlantic project but maybe not so much happening this year in the UK (beyond our current Peterhead wind farm already in service). Developments will hinge on technological breakthrough but SE Asia and West Coast USA will be the areas to watch when this know-how hopefully explodes.

Solar and storage – big leaps!

2019 was a great year for solar and storage developments with capacity, efficiency and costs driving this forward. With more companies focusing on battery technologies from large to small scale, this will become an increasingly present solution in our day to day energy usage. The great thing about this is how it can be used at a household level too giving the consumer more control and greater understanding of the technology. Smartgrids and Microgrids will continue to grow in remote and urban locations.

From a job market and skills perspective the need for qualified Wind Turbine Technicians and Solar / Storage O&M roles increased over 2019 – we expect the same this year too.

As an aside, it’s interesting to see how coal has reacted in the US to the rise of shale gas over the last decade; how it’s completely changed the US markets and wider global supply of gas. Shale gas has surpassed coal as the US go-to energy source and where coal once saw gas as the enemy, they no longer really compete. But with renewable costs also decreasing coupled with an upturn in storage technologies – renewable energy is the new battleground for coal next year.

Nuclear power

Hinkley Point C in full steam. Sizewell C being talked about next? Boris to revive Wylfa?? Moorside in Cumbria??? I doubt we’ll get any decisions on the last 3 in 2020 but Hinkley Point C is becoming much more than a hole in ground now. As a Bristol based business, we’re heavily involved in HPC and enjoying being part of the construction phases there. We need a stable energy supply, like nuclear, to balance the grid if we’re relying on renewables as a growing part of our energy mix.

I’m a fan of nuclear power but after HPC it’ll be interesting to see if new nuclear sites can offer a good ROI as they are so expensive and complicated to build – especially as renewable energy costs continue to drop. Saying that with an increasing population and therefore future demand on the grid, there may be no other alternative. Sizewell C will get the go-ahead ??

Oil and Gas – going greener or just greener messages?

The big names will continue to operate as normal but we’ll see them developing further into alternative sources too – there are already several major-backed ‘start-ups’ working in solar, storage, wind etc. With the emergence of the activist investor and net-zero targets, we’ll see new messages coming out regarding how they’re looking to grow beyond the standard business model and evolving more into carbon capture, usage and storage. Never shy of an acquisition either.

The UK Car market – continuing downward trend but uptake in EVs.

New cars purchased will fall again with new diesel cars once more seeing the biggest decline. People will continue to drive their older (and therefore more polluting) diesel engines as consumer confidence drops – and also with cities increasingly likely to introduce no-go zones for these vehicles.

The good news is Electrical vehicles will continue to grow market share so it’s looking rosy for pure-electric and hybrid models, but nowhere near enough to see an upturn in total new cars sold. There are new EV models due to be released (Vauxhall, Mini, VW and Kia to name but a few) which will help drive the general acceptance of EVs as a viable option. We’ll also see more charging points and consumer charging options springing up so improvements in the general UK infrastructure and the relating tech are in process.

It would be remiss not to mention the general effects of global warming as witnessed so tragically across Australia right now. The scenes there are truly heartbreaking and, anecdotal as it is, I never saw these consistently high temperatures in Australia from my time there during the 2010s. To presume events like these happen in isolation of climate change is at best misplaced or at worst dangerous and conceitful. Scott Morrison is possibly now looking like he’s being backed into a corner on the issue as the devastation continues – a symptom of the future if global temperatures continue to rise. Scientists have been talking about more ferocious hurricanes hitting the US and Caribbean in years to come, droughts and floods in already disaster prone areas – again with terrible human and wider economic costs.

Well those are my main thoughts ahead of 2020 and thanks for taking the time to go through this - always happy to have a conversation around any points above. Also, if I’ve missed anything major, please feel free to let me know ??

It’s worth mentioning, if you’re a business within the energy sector and looking to grow this year, get in touch here or at [email protected].

To give some background on iO Associates, we provide both contract and permanent staff solutions on across the full lifecycle of power generation, transmission and distribution projects, managing all engineering disciplines. Our clients range from Owner / Operators, leading EPC’s, Consultancies, Utilities, in traditional power and renewable projects to the exciting world of Network Integration & Automation, SMART Grids & Microgrids as we transition our global energy mix. 

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