Energy, Geopolitics, and the Green Transition: Lessons from Tibet’s Machu River

27 December 2024

Energy has long been a central theme in global geopolitics. However, as the world transitions to renewable energy, the stakes are higher than ever. Green energy technologies promise to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, but they also introduce new challenges—both geopolitical and environmental. Nowhere is this more evident than in Tibet, where China’s ambitious dam-building projects on the Machu (Yellow River) intersect with pressing concerns about climate change, regional stability, and ecological integrity.

The latest report from Turquoise Roof, The Risks of China’s Dangerous Dam-Building in Tibet, sheds light on these complex dynamics. The findings are stark: while hydropower is technically a renewable energy source, its large-scale deployment can disrupt ecosystems, displace communities, and exacerbate geopolitical tensions.

A Complex Web of Challenges

China’s hydropower development on the upper Machu River reflects its dual ambitions of decarbonization and securing strategic control over vital water resources. The construction of new dams in seismically unstable regions poses significant risks. Notably, the melting permafrost in Tibet—the largest permafrost zone outside the Arctic—releases methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide, further accelerating global warming.

These dams are also reshaping regional geopolitics. Downstream nations, particularly India, face the possibility of water shortages as a result of China’s control over transboundary rivers. By framing water as a “strategic asset,” China raises concerns about its ability to influence agricultural and ecological systems in neighboring countries during times of drought or conflict.

Environmental and Cultural Costs

The report also highlights the profound ecological and social costs of China’s hydropower expansion. Entire Tibetan villages and monasteries have been submerged, displacing communities that have lived in harmony with these landscapes for generations. For instance, the Yangkhil hydropower station, constructed using AI-driven robotic technologies, has already devastated local communities. Similarly, Tibet’s once-pristine ecosystems are now bearing the brunt of industrial-scale aquaculture and infrastructure projects.

While these projects are branded as components of China’s “green transition,” the reality is far more complex. Hydropower and solar initiatives coexist with coal-fired plants, revealing a slower and less substantial shift away from fossil fuels than official narratives suggest.

The Green Transition and Geopolitics: A Broader Perspective

This is not just a local story. The intersection of energy, climate, and geopolitics is a global challenge. At SecDev, we’ve been mapping these intersections in regions as diverse as Ukraine, the Amazon, and Eurasia. In Ukraine, energy infrastructure is a critical target in the ongoing war. In the Amazon, efforts to combat deforestation are deeply intertwined with global energy demands. And in Eurasia, pipelines and resource corridors play a pivotal role in regional security.

The case of Tibet serves as a crucial reminder: the path to a sustainable future must balance energy needs with ecological preservation and social equity. Without this balance, the green transition risks becoming yet another source of conflict and environmental degradation.

What Can Be Done?

The findings of this report emphasize the need for policies and practices that prioritize inclusivity, sustainability, and transparency. Key recommendations include:

1. Promoting International Collaboration: Transboundary water agreements are essential to mitigate geopolitical tensions and ensure equitable water distribution.
2. Strengthening Environmental Safeguards: Infrastructure projects must be assessed for their long-term ecological and social impacts, with mitigation measures built into their design.
3. Empowering Indigenous Communities: Local populations like Tibetans, who have centuries of experience managing fragile ecosystems, should play a central role in conservation and decision-making processes.
4. Investing in Truly Sustainable Energy Systems: A meaningful transition requires integrating renewable energy sources like solar and wind into grids dominated by fossil fuels.

A Call to Action

As the world races to combat climate change, we must remain vigilant about the unintended consequences of the green transition. Energy will remain a core element of geopolitics, but it must also become a force for cooperation rather than division.

At SecDev, we are committed to advancing knowledge and solutions at the intersection of energy, geopolitics, and sustainability.

?? Read the full report here:

#Geopolitics #ClimateChange #GreenTransition #Sustainability #EnergySecurity #Tibet