The Enemy Within – Putin’s Final Nuclear Option (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #331)

Allow me to preface what I am about to say by stating that you may find it crazy. And there is nothing wrong with that. I will endure questions about my sanity as long as you hear me out. What you are about to read might seem like a fringe opinion, introducing the kind of mind-boggling possibility that is beyond the realm of reason. Nevertheless, I ask you to bear with me and when the possibility is revealed, ask yourself the following questions: Is it any crazier than the events which have happened in Ukraine since 2014? Is it any crazier than "little green men" taking?over Crimea? Is it any crazier than a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet being shot down by Russian?backed separatists over eastern Ukraine?

Is?it crazier than a prolonged pseudo-proxy war exploding into the largest war in Europe since 1945? Is it crazier than hundreds?of thousands of Russian soldiers killed and wounded to capture land that their destructive tendencies have rendered worthless? Is it crazier than the torture, kidnapping, executions, and litany of war crimes Russian soldiers have carried out on behalf of the ego, vanity, and pride of a single man? Is it crazier than a mutiny by a former hot dog salesman and mass murderer who came close to overthrowing the leadership of the world's largest nation by land area and a regime with access to thousands of nuclear weapons?

These are just a few of the events connected to Russia’s war in Ukraine which defy logic. Europe and much of the world has been turned upside down by the war. So many crazy things have happened, that now they seem almost normal. And that might be the craziest thing of all. Keep that in mind when considering what might come next for Russia. At this point, nothing is beyond the realm of possibility, especially when Vladimir Putin is the one making decisions.

Edge of Disaster - Following The Leader

Surely what I am about to say cannot be any crazier than all the things I just outlined. Those events actually happened. No one would have predicted such outcomes a decade ago. Ukraine first drove Vladimir Putin to distraction and then disaster. Some have called him crazy. Other, more diplomatically kind commentators would say his actions have been highly irrational. They have certainly been self-defeating. And they show no sign of abating anytime soon. Putin has become more enigmatic and impulsive. His swaggering talk no longer engenders confidence, fear or respect. His management of the war seems to have arisen from an alternative reality. One where a combination of excessive pride and deep-rooted insecurities lead him further down the spiral. And where Putin goes, Russia follows.

So, what could be crazier than everything that has happened with Russia since Putin took it to war in Ukraine? The most obvious answer is Putin resorting to the use of nuclear weapons. This probably does not sound that crazy anymore since Putin has made numerous nuclear threats. An imaginary mushroom cloud has appeared on the horizon of leaders, soldiers and civilians since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began last February. Will he or won’t he has become a sort of demented diplomatic parlor game with Kremlinologists hedging their bets on Putin resorting to the use of nuclear weapons, or alternatively ordering his occupying forces to blow up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Such an event is possible, but most analysts believe it is not probable. At least, not for now.

An Unforgiving Option – Putin’s Internal Struggle

One nuclear option of last resort that has not been discussed involves how far Putin would be willing to go if civil war broke out in Russia and his regime was threatened by rival internal forces. These could be factions of the Russian military or paramilitary groups. In this case, Putin might resort to using nuclear weapons against his fellow Russians. If an attempted coup did not result in Putin losing power, the forces arrayed against him could engage in an armed struggle with the military, security services, and paramilitary groups forced to take sides. If Putin’s forces were losing and he had no other military option than the use of nuclear weapons, would he use them? That is a distinct possibility.

Official Russian policy on the use of nuclear weapons states that they may be used if the existence of the Russian state is threatened. Taken at face value, that can seem reassuring, especially for westerners. NATO has disavowed regime change in Russia. While they would certainly like to see Putin out of power, there has never been a plan to actively pursue his removal. American officials have been at pains to emphasize this, lest Putin feels cornered and orders a nuclear strike. Ukraine also lacks the capabilities to threaten the Russian state’s existence.

Less reassuring is the fact that Putin’s war in Ukraine threatens to fatally undermine his regime. Since Putin sees himself as inseparable from the Russian state, then he might resort to using nuclear weapons as he loses his grip on power. Putin would have to blame someone for his catastrophic mismanagement of the war and Ukraine would be the most obvious target. A less obvious target would be internal forces inside Russia that might attempt to overthrow his regime. If Putin found himself on the losing end of an internal struggle, he could resort to the most desperate measures possible against his own people. This is not nearly as far-fetched as it sounds.

Costly Mistakes - The Ultimate Price

Putin has shown a willingness to squander the lives of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine. His war has been as deadly to Russians as it has been to Ukrainians. Casualties are not the main consideration for Putin continuing or ending the war in Ukraine. The sanctity of life – other than his own – is not his concern. Putin’s core concern is with the preservation of his regime no matter the cost. The Russian people could end up paying the ultimate price for his hapless mismanagement of the war. Putin has done more to weaken his own regime than anyone else. There is no one left to save Putin from himself. The regime’s downward spiral is likely to continue. Will that result in a coup, a civil war, or Putin using nuclear weapons? Not against Ukraine or the West, but against his own internal enemies. That might sound crazy, but no crazier than everything else that has happened in Ukraine and Russia because of Vladimir Putin.