End of Scrum? Part I: Empiricism

?? Update 28th October 2022

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Since its inception in the early 90s, the Scrum Framework rapidly spread around the world and revolutionized the software product development industry.

This is mainly due to its easily visible benefits, such as radical risk reduction, faster value delivery, greater involvement of teams, and the increased ability to respond to changes, to name a few. In this series, I explain what Scrum really is and, consequently, whether it can be replaced, evolve, or just come to an end one day.

False prophets?

Despite this, in recent years, some have started to predict the “End of Scrum” while not pointing to any coherent alternative or criticizing additional techniques that aren’t really part of the framework.

It’s hard to say that Scrum decline is confirmed by the data:

Nevertheless, it inspired me to try to look to the future. Is it really game over for Scrum, as some say, or maybe the game hasn’t even started yet?

Children’s curiosity

As a child, I loved to tear things apart. I remember the satisfaction of smashing Lego towers, sandcastles, and taking cars apart to see what’s inside. Have you had the same?

Sometimes the most straightforward turn out to be the best. I am happy to break Scrum into pieces to look inside.

Building blocks

Although at first glance it might seem a bit mysterious, I can assure you that Scrum has not been created by aliens. It’s just a simple framework for effective team collaboration on complex products.

I like to think about it being a set of principles, methods, and patterns that have explicitly been arranged into a coherent framework to help solve complex problems.

Let’s consider the elements that make up Scrum:

1. Empiricism
2. Lean thinking
3. Additional elements and framework’s configuration that glue it together

Part I: Empiricism

“Scrum is founded on?empiricism?and lean thinking. Empiricism asserts that knowledge comes from experience and making decisions based on what is observed” — Scrum Guide 2020

What does it mean?

Let’s look at a?metaphor of a thermostat. The device works on a very simple principle. Instead of trying to analyze all parameters such as:

• the number of people in the room,
• room size,
• heat sources,
• season,
• thermal insulation,
• weather
• open windows etc.

It decouples us from the unknowns and introduces a simple feedback loop. It takes a transparent reading, inspects, and adapts. I have no doubt that it is the simplest, the best, and the most beautiful method of dealing with the unknown-unknowns.

And this is what empiricism is all about:

1. Plan?— Identify objectives and how to achieve them
2. Do?—Carry out the activities to implement it
3. Check?— Once executed, study the results to ensure they align with expectations
4. Act?— If any improvement areas are identified, then implement them

Obviously, product development is much more complex. By using empiricism, the Scrum Framework:

• Minimizes the complexity of the process and, consequently, the risk attached to it.
• Limits the risks related to three dimensions: requirements, technology, and people to the length of the Sprint.

Just think about it. How likely is it that one day we will give up empirical process control and start relying on gut feelings or inner revelations to precisely predict the future and plan all your actions in advance in environments that are by definition complex?

We can confidently say that there is no better way to deal with complexity than taking a small step at once, checking the result (inspection enabled by transparency), and adapting (validated learning). Therefore, in my opinion,?as a method of dealing with complexity, empiricism, upon which Scrum is built, is simply immortal.

Does it mean Scrum is immortal as well? That’s a different question.

What’s next?

I’m going to continue this series. Finally, we should see if Scrum can ever be replaced, end, or evolve, and if so, to what extent.

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Recommended reading

I will be sharing my knowledge successively in this series and in the following stories. However, if you want to get it yourself, I suggest starting with these books:

1. Mastering Professional Scrum: A Practitioner’s Guide to Overcoming Challenges and Maximizing the Benefits of Agility?by Stephanie Ockerman and Simon Reindl
2. Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the Time?by J.J. Sutherland