The End of Science…For A While

The gears of the world economy have seized up as a consequence of the ongoing pandemic. Although we will recover, individually and globally from this stand-still, our ability to resume new breakthroughs in everything from cancer to climate science may take considerably longer.

Throughout academia, even the most optimistic planners anticipate budget cuts and stagnation for months and perhaps years to come.  Public schools face cutbacks as a result of the abrupt loss of tax revenues and tuition.  Private research institutions are little better off, with once-lofty endowments hollowed out by market losses. 

The biggest brunt is borne by our nation’s academic hospitals, the front lines in the war against COVID-19. Many of these institutions were already operating on lean budgets (as evidenced by the manifold supply shortfalls recorded in nightly news reports). A January 2019 report from the American Hospital Association and the University of Chicago revealed lean budgets threatened patient care, primarily due to increased pharmaceutical costs. These same organizations are now hemorrhaging dollars.

Amidst tireless efforts to save lives, many hospitals are over-burdening both physical infrastructures and personnel, with expectations that crucial staff will burn-out, succumb to infection or watch their colleagues do the same; all of which could contribute to a prolonged period of post-traumatic malaise. Compounding the problem, most hospitals have been forced to curtail lucrative medical services that normally keep these institutions afloat. 

In response to these stressors, many institutions of higher education or public health have initiated hiring freezes or begun the first of what may become waves of furloughs. These restrictions even apply to headcount that has already been “fully funded“ by grants, government or philanthropy (a misnomer to be corrected below). 

As a native of the Rust Belt, raised by parents who often struggled to make monthly mortgage payments, the enactment of austerity measures recalls painful memories of the 1970s and 80s. Nonetheless, there are wider implications with which we will contend, some positive and others not so much. 

Belt-tightening provides a rare opportunity for educators to repurpose their talents and teach the public and policymakers about the importance and limitations of scientific research. Moreover, this austerity might offer opportunities to increase the efficiency of medical research and public health.

The halt in laboratory and clinical investigation, the mainstays of biomedical research and a key driver of the American economy, is but one more sacrifice needed to enact and maintain social distancing. It would be arrogant and inaccurate to claim these standstills are more important or impactful for researchers than the countless sacrifices made every day by so many throughout the world.

The impact to American science could nonetheless be considerably more impactful for the worlds’ hospitals and universities than for other industries and endeavors.  Once the gears of the world economic engine begin anew, hospitals and research universities likely will be far slower to regain the pace, largely due to the aforementioned hiring freezes lasting years. Worse still, these cuts could presage the closure of institutions that were already teetering of the edge of fiscal survival. 

For those wondering why the delay could be long-lived, it is crucial to understand that research activities generally cost far more dollars than are provided by granting agencies. Forget the shameful images of the Stanford yacht that remain forefront in the minds of many, conducting research costs American universities far more than they receive. A 2014 investigation in Nature revealed that universities pay more money to conduct research than they are reimbursed by government or foundation grants. Simply put, “fully funded staff” on grants are not. 

Infrastructure costs mean that every research dollar spent on biomedical research requires an additional fifty-three cents to keep the lights on and the internet flowing. Yet, granting agencies on average only reimburse thirty-four cents.  The difference is often compensated by monies from state legislatures or endowments.  The problem is that these resources have been abruptly and for a time at least, heavily denuded. Therefore, deans, chancellors and hospital directors around the nation face the prospect idling their engines of innovation in the interests of fiscal responsibility.

As a consequence, breakthroughs in many fields of research will be delayed, adding to the destruction wrought by COVID-19. Some institutions will fail. Even before the outbreak, highly-respected names in biomedical research were teetering on the edge, driving bankruptcies and forced consolidations. The late Clayton Christensen predicted in 2018 that half of American colleges will go bankrupt within the decade or so. An ailing Scripps Research Institute narrowly avoided a choice between bankruptcy and being acquired by the University of Southern California and only after an internal revolt by its faculty. Likewise, other research institutes around the nation may soon face daunting decisions. Some will not survive.

In the meantime, we all must work together to increase our efficiency and frugality. Over the past few weeks, we have learned to master video conferencing and can apply this to save on future travel costs. We have also learned how to manage day-to-day activities via teleconferencing. Necessity will undoubtedly propel new innovations to overcome other financial limitations as they arise. Some universities are also asking their faculty to brainstorm opportunities to generate revenues, not quite yet reaching the level of academic bake sales but even that may not be impossible to imagine.

We will come out of this stronger and a bit wiser, but it will require patience and a healthy dose of common cents.