The End of the Pandemic
In the northern hemisphere, we’re in what I call a “tweener” season – it’s the time in between summer and winter, and the weather can’t make up its mind.??One day it’s boiling hot, the next day it's chilly.???This was epitomized last week when we had a lovely outdoor meal one night, then the very next evening I noticed one of our guests was not only shivering; but to my horror, her breath was condensing from the cold.??It was time to move inside.??It’s a tweener season in business too.???No one disputes that we’ve seen the worst of the pandemic, but it’s unclear just when it will end or even what that ending looks like.??The pandemic, like the weather, can’t seem to make up its mind.??And while we arguably can’t control either of these forces, this doesn’t mean we have to be passive.??We can proactively take control, even within the face of ambiguity.??
We know, with absolute certainty, that summer comes to an end and??fall eventually arrives, followed by winter. So we do things both superficial and substantive to prepare for that change. Perhaps we decorate the house with gourds and autumnal themes, while farmers in colder climates round up their livestock, and Starbucks rolls out the marketing machine on everything pumpkin spice.??There are costs to doing these things too early, of course.??On the home decorating front, the costs are minimal – perhaps it’s moderately embarrassing to have an autumn-themed porch decoration if it’s 100 degrees outside.??In business, the costs of housing livestock or marketing seasonal beverages is more significant:??If you round up thousands of head of sheep a month earlier than the weather demands, you’re definitely out real money??. . . but on the other hand, if mother nature decides to send winter early, your costs are much higher.???And Starbucks knows perfectly well that some people will buy those seasonal beverages, even if there isn’t a crisp autumnal chill in the air.?
The point is, we?know?that autumn is coming, and so we make preparations, even though we don’t know the precise timing of the shift in weather.???And based on two millennia of recorded history, we know that pandemics do in fact end.??The fact that we don’t know the precise timing is no different than our uncertainty around a first freeze.??And the fact that we don’t know what the “end” of the pandemic looks like -- whether it's eradication or it becomes a common illness we live with forever like the flu -- is no different from not knowing whether this winter’s snowfall will be 2 inches or 30 inches.??
The point is, we know the end of the pandemic is coming, and businesses must prepare accordingly.??Those who don’t are sure to be left out in the cold.