Not the end of “The Line”

Arrakis, Dune, desert planet.

No, that is a different story. Ours goes like this:

NEOM, The Line, the desert of Saudi Arabia.

In the desert that ends at the Red Sea, NEOM is being built—the future economic engine of Saudi Arabia and a source of interest and inspiration for many who envision a world built around connectivity, sensors, smart algorithms, and technology-packed cities that take care of us. This is the world we are gradually moving towards.

NEOM is a planned mega-city in the Tabuk Province of northwestern Saudi Arabia. Envisioned as a futuristic, high-tech development, it is part of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 plan to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Announced in 2017, the project aims to incorporate smart city technologies and function as a hub for innovation in fields such as energy and water, biotechnology, food, advanced manufacturing, and entertainment. NEOM is intended to be powered entirely by renewable energy sources, with plans including areas such as 'The Line,' a linear city expected to have no cars, streets, or carbon emissions.

Regardless of your views, NEOM is a fascinating project. As the first built-from-scratch smart mega-city, it is of significant interest to me and many other smart city advocates. It also makes for an intriguing conversation starter:

"Would you want to live in a city in the desert, controlled by AI? Ah, you haven’t heard about it? Well, let me tell you. Imagine a structure as wide as four football fields (~200 meters), taller than the Eiffel Tower (500 meters high), and 170 kilometers long! Oh, pardon me—110 miles long. And its walls are made of glass!"

Consider the following: NEOM is likely the most expensive—and arguably the most challenging, complex, and ambitious—project in human history. With an estimated cost of $500 billion (and some claims reaching $1.5 trillion), it surpasses the expense of any other project I can think of.

For reference, the United States spent $25.8 billion on Project Apollo between 1960 and 1973, which is approximately $257 billion when adjusted for inflation to 2020 dollars. California High-Speed Rail, which is still in the planning stages, is projected to cost $113 billion. Dubailand, described as the Middle East’s answer to Walt Disney World, is estimated to cost up to $64 billion according to various reports. Songdo, the South Korean smart city built from scratch on land reclaimed from the ocean, cost about $40 billion. Kansai Airport in Osaka, Japan, which sits on an artificial island, cost $20 billion. The International Space Station (ISS) was quite expensive, with the effort costing around $150 billion. The Large Hadron Collider, a particle accelerator in Switzerland, cost less than $5 billion, making it seem nearly free in comparison.

Recently, several publications have suggested that the project may be encountering difficulties. On April 10, Bloomberg reported that Saudis are scaling back ambitions for the $1.5 trillion desert project NEOM, with initial plans to house 1.5 million by 2030 being replaced with fewer than 300,000 people. And that officials expect to have just 2.4 kilometers (or 1.4%) of the project completed by 2030. That article was followed by many more, discussing the troubles with NEOM: from The Guardian, Quartz, Bloomberg again. Then, there was a New York Post stating that, according to Saudi Arabia’s Economy Minister Faisal Al Ibrahim, the ambitious mega-project, valued at $1.5 trillion, is not scaling back its plans.

I don't yet know the real story, but I hope the project is still on track, even if it's ultimately completed later than expected. For proponents of smart cities around the world, the success of NEOM in Saudi Arabia could have several compelling implications. Here are three main reasons why we should wish for NEOM's success:

·?????? Validation of the Smart City Model: NEOM's vision includes not just technological advancements but also a new model of urban living that is sustainable, highly automated, and interconnected. Its success would serve as a powerful proof of concept, demonstrating that such futuristic city designs are not only viable but also beneficial. This could encourage further investments into smart city projects globally, expanding their implementation. And its failure could deliver a powerful blow to the smart city model.

·?????? Innovation and Technological Benchmarking: NEOM is designed to be a cutting-edge city, incorporating from scratch advanced technologies across all aspects of life, from AI and robotics to renewable energy and biotechnology. Its success could set new benchmarks in urban design and technology integration, pushing other cities globally to adopt similar innovations. This can accelerate the development and refinement of smart city technologies, benefiting urban centers worldwide. And its failure could dampen global progress in this field.

·?????? Global Standards and Policies for Urban Development: As a pioneering smart mega-city, NEOM could influence global standards and policies related to urban development. This includes everything from environmental sustainability and energy use to data privacy and security in an IoT-powered urban landscape. Success in NEOM could help shape international guidelines and best practices, promoting a more coordinated approach to urban development across the world. And its failure would leave us wondering about the future directions.

So, I am rooting for NEOM.

If successful, this project would demonstrate that when humans combine their minds, creativity, and resources, they can achieve anything.