Will, the end of forbearance lead to a wave of foreclosures in the United States?
Nishant Sondhi
Real Estate Investment Fund Manager | Specialized in Passive Investing for Multifamily & New Developments | Data-Savvy, Transparent, Committed
With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four reasons why that won’t happen.
1. There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time
After the last housing crash, about?9.3 million ?households lost their home to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.
As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the overwhelming fear was the pandemic would decimate the housing industry in a similar way. Many experts projected?30% of all mortgage holders ?would enter the forbearance program. Only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now?down to 3.5% .
As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at?1,863,000 . That’s definitely a large number, but nowhere near 9.3 million.
2. Most of the 1.86M in forbearance have enough equity to sell their home
Of the 1.86 million homeowners currently in forbearance, 87% have at least?10% equity ?in their homes. The 10% equity number is important because it enables homeowners to sell their houses and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.
The remaining 13% might not all have the option to sell, so if the entire 13% of the 1.86M homes went into foreclosure, that would total 241,800 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the?annual foreclosure numbers ?of the three years leading up to the pandemic:
The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures coming out of the housing crash 15 years ago. The number does, however, draw a similar comparison to the three years prior to the pandemic.
3. The current market can absorb any listings coming to the market
When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, there was an excess supply of homes for sale. The situation is exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was a 9-month supply of listings for sale. Today, that number stands at less than?3 months of inventory ?on the market.
As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the?National Association of Realtors?(NAR),?explains ?when addressing potential foreclosures emerging from the forbearance program:
领英推荐
“Any foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines.”
4. Those in power will do whatever is necessary to prevent a wave of foreclosures
Just last Friday, the White House released a?fact sheet ?explaining how homeowners with government-backed mortgages will be given further options to enable them to keep their homes when exiting forbearance. Here are two examples mentioned in the release:
When evaluating the four reasons above, it’s clear there won’t be a flood of foreclosures coming to the market as the forbearance program winds down.
Bottom Line
As Ivy Zelman, founder of the major housing market analytical firm?Zelman & Associates,?notes :
“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is?about zero percent.”
About Nishant Sondhi:?Nishant is a Real Estate salesperson in Manhattan and Brooklyn, and specializes in Residential Real Estate. He is passionate about helping buyers and sellers navigate the New York market, and save them thousands of dollars, time and make the process enjoyable. His strong analytical, marketing, and negotiation skills developed during his MBA and over 10 years of sales experience give him a unique edge to best serve his clients