The End of Cities is Not Near

Despite wars and pandemics, people always find their way back to cities. Businesses and work are an essential part of the appeal, but the insatiable craving to be around others persists even in the darkest times.

Between 1950 and 2018, the world’s urban population grew fourfold, according to a United Nations report, with the number of people living in cities outnumbering those in rural areas for the first time in 2007.

Declaring human behavior forever changed because of the pandemic ignores all of human history. The truth is that we continue to inexorably march toward the citification of the world.

A recent survey by The Harris Poll and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs presents an image not of cities teetering on the edge, but of urban strength in crisis. Rather than decamping for the suburbs, as has been widely (and anecdotally) reported, city residents remain committed to cities.

But beyond the immediate challenges, the respondents -- 1,200 residents of the nation’s six largest metropolitan areas -- want longstanding problems of urban life addressed, and are willing to embrace changes in policy and personal behavior to do so.

Recognizing Reality

I should note that I have a true affinity for rural and small-town America. Much of my economic development consulting work takes place there. The thought of writing off smaller communities is anathema to me.

But I do recognize a truism -- that our larger metro areas are, in fact, our country's economic, technological and cultural dynamos.

No doubt the global health crisis that we’re living through will have some lasting effects, particularly when it comes to how we work, but does anyone truly believe that it will fundamentally alter human nature?

The previously mentioned survey offers no evidence of a long-term urban exodus. The bulk of residents across community type — big city, inner suburb, and outer suburb — are happy with where they live, and say they want to live in the type of community in which they currently reside.

The concentration of resources, amenities, institutions, and social infrastructure simply cannot be dismissed. In a recent discussion hosted by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, economist Austan Goolsbee said as much because we are “much more productive when we are in person together.”

Affordability is a Problem

But big-city problems are real. As one who lives in Dallas, I can relate. The cost of living is typically significantly higher. More urbanites rate the affordability of housing as “extremely important” (41 percent) than those inner or outer suburbanites (29 percent and 26 percent, respectively).

But the fact remains that we are social animals. Maintaining close relationships with others is essential to our mental health and, ultimately, our survival. One reason depression and anxiety rose during the pandemic is that we missed the energy of being together. (I joke that I have become a warrior hermit monk.)

Zoom and other videoconferencing tools have helped, but they cannot replace, nor suppress, the need for human connection. And that is why the end of cities is not near.

This is the lead story to BBA Economic Digest, a weekly online newsletter for economic developers and business people. Six more stories follow. To subscribe, go to https://www.barberadvisors.com/plans-pricing