The End of Cars in Cities

How the dominance of the single-occupancy car, as we know it today, is waning

Nearly everyone alive today grew up in a world with cars - they’ve dramatically transformed our cities, our society, and our atmosphere. The personal automobile has given us much to be grateful for - a sense of freedom, a means of personal expression, and an economic boom that helped establish the modern economy. But the iconic image of an individual, driving alone, in a vehicle - is increasingly an image based in the past rather than the future. It has become overwhelmingly apparent that the days of the single occupancy car are numbered - particularly in dense, urban cities.

There are two dominant forces at play - private enterprise and regulation.

Private Sector

The business world is transforming mobility incredibly rapidly. Ten years ago there was no Uber, no Model S, and certainly no electric bikes, buses or scooters. The concepts of car sharing and Level-5 autonomous vehicles were barely conceived, much less mainstream topics of conversation. These new modes of transport have been enabled by dramatic technological advances - namely the cost reduction in lithium ion batteries and widespread smartphone adoption. Today, we can’t imagine the future of mobility without these new modes of transportation. The future will be multi-modal.

Economic Reality

The sharing economy is predicated on one primary financial driver - the increased utilization of assets. Uber and Lyft tap in to this motivation. However, they are not alone. Today, Turo enables over 250k vehicle  owners to profit from their cars through the largest peer-to-peer marketplace for car sharing. Scoop has provided millions of carpool trips in last two years alone, tapping into the massive underserved market of long-distance commuters (80% of all commuters drive alone and the average daily commute time is 56 min). They are demonstrating that carpooling can be not only the most economic way to get across a city, but also one of the most enjoyable and convenient, when done right. Bird and Lime have discovered the incredible economics of sharing a new type of vehicle - the electric scooter, enabling more car-free trips in cities. As these concepts grow, the economic and social motivations for sharing vehicles will only increase. The idea of driving alone, or letting your car sit idle 96% of the time will make little economic sense.

At the same time, the economics of using fossil fuels in certain transportation applications continues to get worse. In urban environments, heavy-duty vehicles are rapidly transitioning towards electric drive - skipping over the prospects of hybrid and natural gas, due primarily to an economic advantage. The economic reality is that fossil fuels and internal combustion are no longer competitive in certain segments today and that gap will only grow as battery costs come down and city bans on pollution increase. Proterra is demonstrating this with force in the North American transit bus market - where dozens of major cities are abandoning fossil fuels and committing to 100% electrification within the next decade. They have formed a global partnership with Daimler, the world’s largest manufacturer of commercial vehicles, to accelerate the electrification of other heavy duty vehicle formats.

Regulation

It has become clear that regulation has and will no doubt continue to play a fundamental role in shaping the future of transportation. From the global agreements on reducing carbon pollution signed in Paris in 2016, to the German and US governments uncovering massive corruption in diesel emissions in Volkswagen (aka Dieselgate), to the recent city regulators determining the fate of the electric-last-mile scooter wars, it’s clearly impossible to build a transportation company without a deliberate strategy on how to engage with regulators. It’s also clear that those players that fail to anticipate regulation in the transportation sector will lose in the long run.

New concepts in regulation are emerging quickly in response to these technological shifts. The global trend of banning diesel in cities is encouraging regulators to move toward 100% electrification of fleets. California is quickly moving forward with a comprehensive plan to electrify all transit fleets in the state by 2040, called the Innovative Clean Transit rule. School buses, delivery trucks and garbage trucks are likely to follow-suit.

Additional regulation is needed to create new infrastructure for our multi-modal future. Well designed bike lanes exist in only a handful of major cities globally, but new models are emerging. Bird has proposed subsidizing bike lanes with $1/day from operations going to cities to help build new, protected bike lanes. Congestion charges - directly aimed at polluting, internal combustion vehicles - are growing globally - from London to Manhattan to Mexico City and will be used to fund alternative modes.

What’s next? Cities should observe the trends already underway and help accelerate this transition. First, a new category of vehicle needs to be defined for speeds of 10-25 mph. Second, the corresponding infrastructure needs to be built to accommodate this new mode - namely a new, protected lane for these vehicles. Electric scooters and bikes don’t belong on roads, nor do they belong on sidewalks. These new lanes could be formed through a ban on parking in cities. The space occupied by idle cars could rapidly be converted to new, protected lanes. With additional safety, adoption rates would increase dramatically.

The end of cars in cities, as we know it today

The big question here - is why do we need cars in dense urban environments in the first place? We’ve all seen cities improve when parking spots are removed, when zero-emission mass transit options are viable, and when bikes replace loud, polluting vehicles. Thankfully, this won’t remain just a theoretical debate - the mayor of Oslo, Mrs. Marianne Borgen, has declared her city will be the first to ban cars...starting in 2019. She’s not alone - Madrid will ban non-resident vehicles as soon as November of this year. These experiments are no-doubt signs of more to come and the future of how we all move around will be better, cheaper, safer, cleaner, healthier, more sustainable and happier for it.