Employment and Labor Market - Canada - September 2024
Paul Young
Experience Senior Financial Planning, Analysis and Reporting SME seeking P/T or F/T job.
Source - Government of Canada
Canadian employment rose by a hearty 46,700 in September, following a 22,100 rise the prior month, well above consensus and confounding the narrative that Canada's job market was weakening markedly. While it was not a Royal Flush of strength, there were some impressive undercurrents in this report. First, the unemployment rate stepped back a tick to 6.5%, when an increase was fully expected, and only the second decline since 2022. Second, full-time employment soared by 112,000 jobs, the largest monthly rise on record aside from the wildness of 2020-2022. And, finally, the job gains were spearheaded by a 61,200 gain in private sector payrolls. Basically, this report runs pretty much counter to every assumption most analysts had on the Canadian job market.
However, before getting too carried away on the latest data dump from the random number generator, note that there were also some flashes of softness. Most importantly, the estimate of total hours worked somehow fell 0.4% m/m, which simply does not square with the spike in full-time jobs. (Even with the drop, hours were still up at a 2.1% a.r. for all of Q3.) Next, one of the main reasons why the jobless rate fell is that the participation rate dropped 2 ticks to 64.9%, and is now at its lowest level since the late 1990s (again, aside from the 2020/21 episode). While some of this relentless decline is demographic (baby boomers aging out of the workforce), even the prime age (25-54) part rate fell 2 ticks last month and has dropped 1 ppt from the mid-2023 record high. Finally, offering some relief for the BoC, average hourly wages eased to a 4.6% y/y clip from 5.0%, although that still remains hot when productivity is showing zero growth.
Sifting through the cross currents, our scoring system rates this overall report at 73.3 (where 50 is a perfectly neutral result), suggesting that the signs of strength handily outweighed the flashes of softness.
By sector: Services accounted for all of the gains on net, with large increases in retail & wholesale trade (+22k), culture & recreation (+22k) and professional & tech jobs (+21k). Construction chipped in with an 8k increase, partly offset by a 5k dip in factory jobs. The education sector is always a wildcard in September, and it was a rare source of softness last month, dropping 12k in seasonally adjusted terms.
By region: The big job gains were heavily concentrated in Ontario (+43k) and Quebec (+22k), which more than made up for declines in Alberta (-8k) and B.C. (-18k). The big two provinces both saw their jobless rate dip 2 ticks in the month, with Quebec's 5.5% again the lowest in the country, and Ontario's easing back below 7% (at 6.9%). Five of the six smaller provinces reported healthy job gains, with only New Brunswick seeing a setback.
Bottom Line: Today's surprisingly sturdy employment picture sends a strong vote for a more modest 25 bp rate cut by the BoC at this month's decision, versus the recent growing calls for a 50 bp response. Given the inherent volatility of the Labour Force Survey, this result is not going to seal the deal by itself, but one of the strongest arguments in favour a bigger rate move was the previously steady softening in the job market. With jobs delivering at least a one-month wonder of strength—and offering a tantalizing glimmer of hope that the economy may be pulling out of its funk—the case for an even more aggressive BoC just took a big step back. And, of course, the much milder outlook for Fed rate cuts had also already weighed in.
Source: 满地可银行
?
Paul is a former IBM Customer Success Manager who has deployed over 300 data and AI solutions across industries and geographies for the past 8 years. Paul is a Financial Planning, Analysis, and Reporting SME working with data including integration of macro and micro indicators as part of the integrated business planning and reporting cycle.
?
Seeking employment - https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/paul-young-055632b_hi-all-linked-in-followers-and-contacts-activity-7199365291288506369-qGVf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Stock Market – Australia – October 4, 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/stock-market-australia-october-4-2024-paul-young-ibghc/
GDP growth by State – September 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/economic-growth-state-united-states-paul-young-z3cgc/
Stock Market – Canada – October 4, 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/stock-market-canada-october-4-2024-paul-young-yoy3c/
Stock Market – United States – October 4, 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/stock-market-united-states-october-4-2024-paul-young-ibj1c/
Monthly Report – United States – September 2024 -? https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/monthly-report-united-states-september-2024-paul-young-1ktmc/
Monthly Report – Canada – September 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/monthly-report-canada-september-2024-paul-young-atqnc/
Monthly Report – Australia – August 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/monthly-report-australia-september-2024-paul-young-92soc/
Monthly Report – Ontario – September 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/monthly-report-ontario-september-2024-paul-young-emxcc/
Monthly Report – United States – September 2024 -? https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/monthly-report-united-states-september-2024-paul-young-1ktmc/