The Emperor Has No Clothes

This weekend's CNN Presidential Debate has created more geopolitical uncertainty

Since the end of World War II, the global order has been significantly shaped by robust and decisive U.S. leadership. American hegemony has maintained a rules-based international system, evident in institutions like the United Nations, NATO, and the Bretton Woods system, which have fostered global stability and economic growth. This leadership is crucial as the world faces significant conflicts in Ukraine and The Middle East. Historical examples, such as the Marshall Plan's reconstruction of Europe and the establishment of NATO to deter Soviet aggression, highlight the importance of strong U.S. leadership in maintaining international peace and security. The current geopolitical landscape demands similar decisiveness to navigate ongoing crises effectively.

American voters were needing confidence and reassurance..they got the exact opposite

This weekend's presidential debate between former President Trump and current President Biden was geopolitically significant, particularly for its impact on national security issues. From Ukraine to the Middle East, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific, the debate has heightened geopolitical uncertainty at a time when stability and strong leadership are paramount. Domestically, Democrats and American voters needed reassurance regarding President Biden's strength and vigor amidst ongoing speculation about his mental and physical acuity. This assurance was crucial to projecting strength to both allies and adversaries, emphasising the value of U.S. leadership. Unfortunately, President Biden's performance, marked by moments of disorientation and incoherence, fell well short of the mark. This raises significant concerns about his fitness for another term and his competitiveness in the upcoming 2024 election.

The geopolitical ramifications

The geopolitical ramifications of this cannot be understated given the instability witnessed over the past two years, culminating in Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Hamas's attack on Israel, alongside the brewing war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. On the horizon is potential conflict in the Asia-Pacific as China eyes re-unification with Taiwan, potentially by force within the next decade. The rules-based order is creaking and groaning under the strain of multiple flashpoints. Potential conflicts in South America further exacerbate these tensions, signaling a turbulent period ahead for global stability. In all these flashpoints and potential conflicts, there is a significant risk of miscalculation exacerbated by the absence of strong and decisive leadership.

Ambiguity leads to miscalculation

One can argue that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a miscalculation by President Vladimir Putin, potentially based on ambiguous signals from the U.S. In the infamous minor incursion speech, Biden seemed to suggest that NATO's response would depend on whether Russia's actions were a minor incursion or a full-scale invasion. Conversely, there is a strong case to be made that removing Trump-era sanctions and seeking to re-engage with Iran on rebooting the JCPOA provided Iran with the resources needed to fund its key proxies in the Middle East, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. As war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon inches closer to reality, Hezbollah has been belligerently firing missiles and drones into northern Israel, flouting U.S. warnings to move its forces back past the Litani River as per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, agreed upon by both Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. In the past, the mere presence of a U.S. Carrier Group in the eastern Mediterranean Sea was enough to deter such antagonistic behavior, but this is not the case in 2024. This escalation underscores the waning influence of traditional U.S. deterrence measures in the region. Similarly, there is a potential scenario where China could miscalculate the unstable and partisan U.S. political landscape and move to re-unify Taiwan with force. Such a miscalculation could lead to a significant conflict in the Asia-Pacific, with far-reaching ramifications for global stability and U.S. influence in the region.

The world is watching closely as these developments unfold, highlighting the critical need for strong and decisive leadership to navigate these precarious times and maintain international order. Whichever party wins the 2024 US Presidential elections must act decisively in its first 100 days to allay fears and rein in adversaries. However, the U.S. cannot afford five months of strategic ambiguity and uncertainty around its leadership between now and the election. Whether President Biden withdraws from the race and releases the delegates pledged to him and a new Democrat candidate emerges or he continues, it is paramount that he project decisiveness and strength to stabilise global tensions and reassure both allies and adversaries of the US's unwavering commitment to maintaining global peace and security.

Lani Refiti is a Co-founder and Partner at Azcende VC, a venture capital and advisory firm focused on national security. He writes and speaks regularly on the nexus between national security and emerging technology, in particular artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity.