EMIGRATION
Moving Overseas
The trend of moving overseas has gained significant traction among Americans in recent years, influenced by various social, economic, and political factors. In 2022, nearly 160,000 U.S. citizens relocated abroad, marking the highest figure since 2017 and a 16% increase from 2021.
A common sentiment among those contemplating a move is the pursuit of a better work-life balance and overall quality of life. Many individuals express a desire for environments that prioritize community respect and cultural engagement.
The UK emerged as the top destination for American expatriates, with approximately 21,900 moves reported in 2022. Other favored locations include Mexico, Canada, and various European countries such as France and Spain.
The high cost of living in the U.S., coupled with concerns over healthcare accessibility and quality, has also driven people to look for more affordable options overseas. Countries like Mexico are particularly attractive due to their lower living costs.
Many Americans cite dissatisfaction with the current political environment as a primary reason for considering relocation. Issues such as rising political polarization, social unrest, and concerns about civil rights have prompted individuals to seek more stable environments abroad.
The surge in interest regarding emigration following Donald Trump's 2024 victory highlights a complex and multifaceted phenomenon. While the increase in online searches, website traffic, and inquiries to immigration specialists indicates a widespread sense of disillusionment or concern, the reality of leaving the United States is not as simple as it might appear.
Searches and Website Traffic: The data points to a significant spike in searches for moving to countries like New Zealand, Canada, and Australia. These nations have long been popular destinations for Americans considering relocation, and the sharp increases in online activity reflect the emotional and political response to Trump's victory.
New Zealand's immigration website saw a massive increase in U.S. visitors on the day of Trump's victory speech, indicating that many Americans were at least exploring the possibility of relocation. Similar trends in Canada and Australia suggest that these countries are seeing an uptick in inquiries.
The idea of leaving "Trump's America" has been a topic of conversation and debate, particularly post-election. This sentiment reflects deeper frustrations or concerns about the political, social, and cultural changes in the U.S.
Why Some People Might Consider Leaving
The U.S. has experienced heightened political divisions, particularly during Trump's presidency and beyond. Some individuals feel disillusioned or alienated by the partisan environment.
Financial and Legal Hurdles
While many are considering emigration, the actual process of leaving the U.S. is fraught with challenges. Legal barriers, visa requirements, and the financial costs of relocating are significant obstacles for most people.
Wealthy individuals, especially, are concerned about potential changes in tax policies under a second Trump presidency, which may be driving some of the interest in relocating abroad. Financial consultants are reporting a steady stream of inquiries from those looking for advice on the best ways to protect their assets and reduce tax burdens in a potential new country.
Celebrity and Public Figures' Influence
High-profile celebrities like Cher, Sharon Stone, Sophie Turner, and Jimmy Kimmel expressing their frustrations with the political climate and considering relocation to Europe or elsewhere is notable. These figures often amplify the idea of emigration as a form of protest or personal choice, which can influence public opinion, but it's unclear how many of them will actually follow through.
Economic and Political Motivations
The political division in the United States has become more pronounced, with many Americans feeling that they are living in a country whose values and political direction are no longer aligned with their own. Trump's rhetoric and policies, particularly his stance on issues like immigration, healthcare, and social justice, have contributed to a feeling of alienation for some people.
Economic uncertainty, especially regarding potential changes to taxation, social security, and healthcare policies under Trump, has been another significant factor. Some wealthy individuals in particular, who may be concerned about higher taxes or changes to capital gains taxes, are seeking countries with more favorable financial environments.
Likelihood of Actual Emigration
Despite the noticeable increase in interest, experts point out that the actual number of people who will emigrate is likely to be much smaller than the surge in searches or inquiries suggests. Historically, political motivations alone are rarely sufficient to spur mass emigration.
Many Americans consider leaving but are often deterred by practical concerns, such as finding a job abroad, securing visas, navigating foreign healthcare systems, and maintaining financial stability. Moreover, the cost of relocating—whether it’s the expense of moving, the potential loss of income, or the complexity of navigating international tax laws—adds further complexity.
Wealthy Americans' Emigration Trends
According to surveys, a significant portion of American millionaires (53%) have considered leaving the U.S., especially in the wake of Trump’s victory. Younger wealthy individuals are particularly inclined to consider relocation, whether for political reasons or to take advantage of more favorable tax and regulatory environments abroad.
Unlike the surprise of 2016, more Americans have been preparing for relocation during this election cycle, engaging in activities such as scouting trips, visa applications, and consultations with tax experts.
Celebrity Reactions
Several high-profile celebrities have publicly expressed their intention to leave the country:
?
This trend is not just about avoiding taxes; it’s also about seeking stability in what some view as an increasingly unstable political and social environment. However, the number of millionaires who actually leave is likely to remain a small fraction of those who express interest.
Reality
While the surge in interest around emigration in the wake of Trump’s 2024 election victory is real and reflects deep dissatisfaction with the political and social climate in the U.S., it’s important to recognize that actual emigration is far more complicated. The combination of legal, financial, and personal barriers means that while many may fantasize about leaving, only a relatively small number of people are likely to follow through.
Considering the general public and wealthy individuals, a reasonable estimate for the number of people who will actually emigrate following Trump’s 2024 victory could be between 33,000 to 330,000. An ultra conservative estimate would be 5,000 and 25,000 people. The true number will depend on the political, economic, and social conditions that unfold over the coming years, but this range accounts for both the emotional intensity of the moment and the practical barriers to actual emigration.
While this number may appear significant, it represents only a small fraction of the U.S. population. The actual numbers could easily vary depending on political developments and individual circumstances.
That being said, the trend is a clear reflection of the political polarization and anxieties many Americans are feeling about the future under another Trump administration. The emotional response to his victory seems to be a symptom of broader societal divides that likely will continue to shape the national discourse.
Previous Administration Exodus
Multiple people who worked for President-elect Donald Trump's first administration are making plans to flee the country for fear that he might target them once he retakes power in January.
The Washington Post reports that a retired U.S. Army officer who clashed with Trump officials, a member of Trump's first administration who has publicly denounced him, and a former United States intelligence official are all making plans to flee to foreign nations ahead of Trump's second inauguration.
"All spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid undermining their own preparations," writes the Post. "The planning, they acknowledge, responds to a hypothetical worst-case scenario in which a second Trump presidency ushers in systematic suppression of free speech and criminalization of dissent."
These officials' anxieties have only increased, the Post reports, after Trump announced he was picking former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) to serve as his attorney general and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) to serve as his director of national intelligence.
A retired Army officer who has been applying for Italian citizenship told the Post of the Trump appointments, "I feel like I’ve stepped through the looking glass."
Mark Zaid, a national security lawyer who has represented government whistleblowers, tells the Post that he's been counseling clients about their options for fleeing the country once Trump returns to the White House.
"The reality is that, thankfully, this isn’t the 1930s; we have time to make decisions about what will be done and where people can go," he said.