Emerging Trends: Stocks, Sectors & Styles

KEY THEME?(Sep 3, 2023):

11 reasons why we are in the late economic cycle

A. WHAT ARGUES FOR THE LATE CYCLE?

1. inverted yield curve
2. tight credit spreads
3. full employment, unemployment close to all time low
4. corporate profit margins are topping over
5. stock market being close to all time high
6. corporate bankruptcies are rising up up from extremely low levels
7. lots of leverage and greed
8. building up tightness across commodities
9. retailers warning of collapsing sales
10. consumer credit picking up from benign levels
11. exuberance

B. SECTOR ROTATION CONFIRMS LATE CYCLE

Best Buy ideas

1. Energy & Mats - classic late cycle plays
2. Real Estate - historically, a late cycle play
3. Healthcare
4. Regional Banks - historically, a late cycle play
5. Staples

C. AND, OH, YEAH, WE HAVE THIS RISKON

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