Emerging trends – how will our behaviour change post Covid19 and what does it mean for Business?

One of the questions I’m asked regularly, as I talk to my network and recruiters is “what are the key trends you see emerging or how will the world look post Covid 19?” A broad question and who knows is often part of the answer! So many scenarios could play out, but I think it’s fair to say there are some obvious trends which are likely to continue or even accelerate. As commercially minded, customer centric leaders how do we need to pivot our business, our proposition or reimagine the customer experience all together?

Here are some of the prominent themes from the conversations I’ve been having – please respond if you agree or disagree and feel free to add to the list. Having a good sense of the trends will enable all of us to plan and in some cases, where necessary reinvent, repurpose or retrain, to enable us to lead through the changes and capitalise on the opportunities as they arise.

1.    Remote working – During my time in Telecoms we tried to encourage and support more businesses to adopt remote and flexible working. There was usually a degree of resistance, often scepticism about the technology or trust issues around colleagues perhaps not being as productive. The last few weeks have “proved the business case” for remote working and the technology. I think the Telcoms, Internet and Technology firms have all really stepped up to the plate during this crisis with excellent products and service levels. I don’t know anyone who hasn’t appreciated the extra time at home and the flexibility. It’s about balance though – it’s easy to be over ‘Zoomed’ with back to back conference calls and human interaction, the water cooler or coffee bar meeting is still important to build relationships. Of course, not every role can be done from home albeit it’s amazing to see how many customer service/call centre roles have moved to home based using Cloud based/IP Telephony products like Amazon Connect.

2.    Contactless experiences – shopping, socialising, watching movies or live sport and personal coaching to name a few are being done in contactless format. It's going to be fascinating to see how fan engagement and atmosphere is created when the Premier League returns – so much of the football viewing experience is the atmosphere. I’ve spoken to 2 leadership coaches who say they have never been busier. I’ve watched my son have his golf lessons in the garden with his coach watching / teaching using zoom, whats app video and the ‘coachnow’ app. I was talking to a Senior Exec at the online car retailer www.cazoo.co.uk the other day and they see huge opportunity for their business. No need to go to a car showroom or meet a 2nd hand car seller at their home – all done online from the comfort of your home, your chosen car delivered, and 7-day satisfaction guarantee in which you return if you’re not satisfied with a full refund.

3.    Digital payments – it’s amazing to many commentators that there are still a significant number of consumers paying cash and in some way surprising that we haven’t seen a more significant shift, but there are many, including young people, who do not have bank accounts or access to the latest digital/smartphone based payment options – I believe the shift to digital will accelerate with so many mobile based options, but it is important not to leave the ‘unbanked’ behind. Great to see contactless limit raised to ￡45!

4.    Shift to Online retail – a channel and trend that has been well established but Covid19 has forced many late adopters or sceptics to try it, most notably grocery retail and they have had a great experience (my 85-year-old mother in law is now a convert & big fan of Waitrose online!). I don’t think this is the end of the High St but a beleaguered channel will certainly be under more pressure.

5.    Even more focus on the Environment – I’m sure many of us have appreciated the quieter roads, cleaner air, rivers etc and cycling retailers are reporting huge sales numbers. The climate crisis remains one of, if not the biggest crisis we face. This crisis is forcing us to consider how and why we travel – the environment could be a huge beneficiary if more of us switch from cars to shared modes of transport, cycling, walking, home working etc. We may see growth in demand for e-scooters, e-bikes, more adoption of lift share, car club type propositions as well as more investment in cycle lanes and bus prioritisation.

6.    Reduced travel – related to the above point and point 1, I suspect in the short to medium term we will all travel less – partly down to travel restrictions, ongoing fears over catching Covid19 but also because of a desire to support local communities from a leisure, entertainment & vacation perspective. In the world of business many CFOs will rightly challenge the need for international and long distance travel with so many options for online collaboration and remote working. Plenty opportunities to reduce travel and subsistence expenditure. The airline sector in particular and transport generally has been hard hit – it will take a while to recover, rebuild trust and in some cases completely reinvent the customer experience around bookings, check-in, payments & refunds etc.

7.    Community / local focus – this crisis has in some regards exposed us to the challenges of too much reliance on global markets for important, imported goods. It’s very conceivable, especially in a post Brexit world, that there will be more manufacturing on shore, consumers buying 'local', indeed a real drive to support local businesses and communities rebuild. Seeing communities come to together to support each other and the vulnerable has been one of the positives of the last few weeks.

8. Direct to consumer (D2C) – this has been one of the most significantly accelerated trends during the Covid19 crisis – businesses large and small being forced to establish direct sales channels, which will inevitably have an impact on High St retailers or distribution partners – in the last few days I have seen large manufacturing brands like Hyundai and Dyson promoting “buy direct” in their TV campaigns. On a smaller scale many butchers in Smithfield market for example, fishmongers, farmers etc have established D2C commerce businesses given their usual distribution routes to hotels, bars and restaurants have closed. I’ve tried and been particularly impressed with Tom Hixson of Smithfield market – www.tomhixson.co.uk

9.    Financial caution – There is a lot of talk about the “inevitable recession” – who knows how bad it might be, but there will no doubt be less money to spend once the dust settles on this. There may be a positive bump as we come out of lockdown, given we have all spent less in the last 2 months, but we have also been more cautious/less frivolous with expenditure – we have existed with less and spent money on what matters. I see less conspicuous consumption and reduced spend on big ticket items; consumers shopping around and switching providers for better deals.

10. Support for Ethical Businesses – Trust has been an issue for consumers for many years, but this crisis is really shining a light on businesses who care and do the right thing versus those who just care about the bottom line. Doing well can and for many businesses is synonymous with doing good; the two can go hand in hand - consumers will remember how businesses treated colleagues and customers during this crisis. A number have stood out – Pret a Manger and Leon were quick to support NHS and key workers with discounts and meals; the supermarkets responded well with the vulnerable/key workers early shopping hour; Brewdog and others quickly switched production lines to manufacture sanitizer and PPE; Chelsea FC gave over the stadium hotel for NHS workers and Salesforce have provided software, support and developed a new work.com platform, to support customers and charities through the crisis as they re-open. There are many other examples.

A common theme and enabler, undoubtedly, is the role of technology – we are all more connected and embracing of Digital than ever before – the smartphone is the remote control of our lives, in so many ways. The role of online and Apps, real time ‘big data’, personalised 121 customer relationships, staying on top of the trends and insights will all be key as we rebuild or refocus our businesses.

As I said at the outset, these are just thoughts; topics fellow commercially minded leaders are discussing – some are obvious and there will be many I’ve not covered. Please feel free to comment or add to the list. As commercial and customer centric leaders we have a huge role to play in helping communities, businesses and the economy re-open and rebuild. It won’t be easy but there will be opportunities and it could be an exciting period of change for the better!

One final thought, the virtual pub nights have been a great novelty, but you can’t beat the real thing! One old habit that hopefully won’t change too much is the night down the pub with friends having a laugh and chinwag – soon come, as they say in the Caribbean!