The emerging hole which will hit the GOP. Jack Smith will send Trump to prison, and Putin's win the war plan using Trump will be in tatters. BOO HOO
Normally I would not reference a Palmer Report article, but in this case he GONGED IT
It is time for the GOP to face reality.
quote
But the bottom line is that Pence is either the final, or very close to final, grand jury witness. Certainly the most difficult one to get the courts to sign off on. As far as anyone knows, Jack Smith’s court battles over grand jury testimony are all done. If all of the testimony is now complete, and no more witnesses are taking the stand, then it’ll just come down to the procedural moves and filings that have to be completed before the indictment, which don’t take long.
If you’re looking for a reference, think of Mike Pence as the Michael Cohen of this case. I’m certainly not comparing them as people. I’m just drawing parallels in terms of where they’re slotted in the grand jury witness hierarchy. Cohen was excited to testify, but because of the manner in which grand jury witnesses are slotted from least important to most important, Cohen still had to wait until nearly the end to testify. And in the same way that Cohen was believed to be the highest ranking witness in the Manhattan case, Pence is believed to be the highest ranking witness in Jack Smith’s case.
end of quote
A. First of all, Putin is waiting for Trump to be POTUS so he can destroy Ukraine.
Scratch that, it will NOT happen
B. Here is another hole in the Putin Plan to win the war: Russian Ukraine defenses will be a giant Maginot Line exercise in futility
quote
Breaking through
The sheer scale of the Russian defensive works is not, in itself, an obstacle, Ryan said. Ukraine’s military does not need to attack every kilometre in every theatre. Rather, commanders will weigh the strength of the defences, the importance of an area to their objective and the forces they can bring to bear against it, he said.
“Just because an area has heavy defences, it doesn’t mean you will choose not to fight through it,” he said. “Sometimes that is just what you have to do.”
Concentrating forces, a cornerstone of classic military doctrine, could offer Ukraine an advantage at a specific point on the front and allow them to push into Russian rear areas. That could unravel other defensive areas and create a wider breakthrough, said Lee at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
end of quote
IMO static defenses as Putin has built can in the end prove as useless as the Maginot Line as to trying to box in an attacker
Its time to face reality Vladimir Putin. Your goose is on this one cooked
C. As the example of the Russian pensioners shows, as how easily they were fueled into 16 attacks on places like police stations, by scam calls, the level of expertise in the Russian federation is less than optimal.
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“Close to the end” – Now that Mike Pence has testified, Jack Smith is just about ready to criminally indict Donald Trump
Bill Palmer?|?9:09 am EDT April 28, 2023
Now that Mike Pence has testified against Donald Trump to the grand jury, what’s left for Jack Smith to do before criminally indicting Trump? Legal expert Ben Wittes says we’re at the end of the indictment process, while legal expert Joyce Vance says we’re “close” to the end of the process. I think they’re basically both right.
To be clear, Pence is the highest ranking government witness in all of this. Some observers are mistakenly awaiting Trump’s grand jury testimony, but there won’t be any. Criminal targets don’t testify to the grand jury. So Pence is the top of the heap.
It’s still theoretically possible that some people like Mark Meadows, who were cleared to testify by the appeals court weeks ago, still have yet to testify. But given that Jack Smith put Pence on the stand less than one day after the appeals court cleared him, it now seems likely that these other witnesses like Meadows have already testified. Remember, we generally only learn about these things if the media happens to spot the witness going in or out of the courthouse. There is no doubt that numerous people have already testified to Jack Smith’s grand jury without the media having gotten any wind of it.
It’s also theoretically possible that certain Trump family members, or other people who are extremely close to Trump, could be slotted to testify after Pence. We’ll have to wait and see on that front.
There is also the possibility that even if Pence is the final witness, Smith will now feel compelled to bring back one or more earlier witnesses to provide additional context to the testimony that Pence just gave.
And while Trump will not be put in front of the grand jury, it’s possible that Smith could invite Trump to sit down for a pre-indictment interview away from the grand jury. With the way Trump runs his mouth, this would be a?goldmine?for Smith. But for that reason, Trump’s attorneys would likely talk him out of such an interview, just as they did when Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg offered Trump such an interview. Remember, offering this kind of “interview” isn’t a courtesy, it’s a trap – and even Trump’s inept attorneys know it.
But the bottom line is that Pence is either the final, or very close to final, grand jury witness. Certainly the most difficult one to get the courts to sign off on. As far as anyone knows, Jack Smith’s court battles over grand jury testimony are all done. If all of the testimony is now complete, and no more witnesses are taking the stand, then it’ll just come down to the procedural moves and filings that have to be completed before the indictment, which don’t take long.
If you’re looking for a reference, think of Mike Pence as the Michael Cohen of this case. I’m certainly not comparing them as people. I’m just drawing parallels in terms of where they’re slotted in the grand jury witness hierarchy. Cohen was excited to testify, but because of the manner in which grand jury witnesses are slotted from least important to most important, Cohen still had to wait until nearly the end to testify. And in the same way that Cohen was believed to be the highest ranking witness in the Manhattan case, Pence is believed to be the highest ranking witness in Jack Smith’s case.
Cohen ended up not being the final witness. Pecker was brought back for followup testimony after that, and a still unidentified witness reportedly testified after that. But once Cohen testified, you knew we were?almost?there. That’s what Pence’s testimony signifies.
I won’t dare try to predict a timeframe. No one knows how much cleanup work is left to be done. But we’re now in that window where the news alert about the DOJ indicting Trump could come at any time. Tomorrow, two weeks from now, a month from now, or four days from now? None of those would be a surprise.
?????
We’re now at the part where the plane has landed, and we’re waiting for them to open the door. That ends up only taking a tiny fraction of the time that the flight took to begin with. But that wait feels like forever. Welcome to the anticipation part. Nobody likes waiting for champagne delays. But if you’re uncomfortable about having to wait for that news alert about the DOJ indicting Trump, just think about how uncomfortable Trump must be while waiting for that news alert.
end of quote
Whereas here is the second back up for Putin's victory over Ukraine plan
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Digging in
How Russia has heavily fortified swathes of Ukraine –?a development that could complicate a spring counteroffensive.
PUBLISHED?APRIL 27, 2023
When Ukraine's military paused to regroup towards the end of 2022, extensive Russian fortifications designed to slow any Ukrainian advances started to spring up along, behind and sometimes far removed from the front lines.
Satellite images of thousands of new defensive positions reviewed by Reuters show Russia has been digging in at key strategic points in readiness for an offensive by a Ukrainian military rearmed with state-of-the-art Western weapons.
Area of detail
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
Kursh
Voronezh
Fortification inside Russia
Trenches and obstacles
Sumy
UKRAINE
Belgorod
Kharkiv
Poltava
Russia-held
Ukraine
As of April 10
Dnipro
Fortification inside
Russia-held Ukraine
Kryvyi Rih
Zaporizhzhia
Rostov
Crimea
Krasnodar
Black Sea
A map shows all the locations in Russia, along its border with Ukraine, and in Russian-held Ukraine, where the American Enterprise Institute found any kind of fortification built by Russia.
Stretching from the Russian city of Voronok down through eastern Ukraine and southwest to the Crimean Peninsula, new trenches, anti-vehicle barriers and revetments for equipment and material have appeared, said Brady Africk, an open-source intelligence researcher and an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.
Oct. and Nov.
Fortification along parts of the frontline and inner regions
Before Oct. 2022
Relatively few fortifications were visible
Dec. 2022 and Jan. 2023
Fortification inside Russian regions and parts of occupied Ukraine
Feb. and March
More fortifications, especially in northern Crimea
RUSSIA
Russian regions
UKRAINE
Luhansk
Donetsk
Zaporizhzhia
Kherson
Crimea
Crimea
Four maps show when the fortifications built by Russian along its border with Ukraine and in Russia-held Ukraine were first spotted on satellite imagery. Relatively few fortifications appeared before October 2022. In October and November, fortifications appeared along parts of the frontline and inner regions of Russian-held Ukraine. In December 2022 and January 2023, fortifications appeared inside Russian regions and more parts of occupied Ukraine. And in January and February, more fortifications were seen in Russian-held Ukraine, especially in northern Crimea.
Russia’s winter offensive made few gains. As the war carries over into a second spring and Ukraine prepares to renew its own attacks with an arsenal of new Western weapons and freshly trained troops, the Russian military most likely sees prepared defences as the best chance of staving off a decisive defeat, said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
“After the Kharkiv offensive, Russia kind of realized that defeat was possible - they could lose territory. I think that was a realization that Ukraine can do offensive operations,” he said. The fortifications are “an acknowledgement of the risk that Ukraine could make another breakthrough”.
The trenches
The most common - and easiest to construct - type of defensive work is a trench. U.S. Army field manuals say such fighting positions should be dug roughly armpit-deep, be in non-obvious locations, ideally using natural cover for concealment, and include a front wall of sandbags, rocks, dirt or other protective material.
Dirt mound
Opening for snipers or observation
FRONT
Barbed wire
Sandbags
Boxes or steps to help lean out over the trench
Dirt mound
Dirt mound
Walls reinforced with timber
Front
Rear
Ground level
Grenade sump
Holes to kick a grenade into if one lands inside the trench
Wooden planks
On the ground to avoid mud
Grenade sump
An illustration shows what a typical trench looks like.
Trenches offer obvious protection from bullets and can help infantry survive artillery barrages, which have been a prominent feature of the war in Ukraine. Fragments from an 80mm mortar round, for instance, can be stopped with just 30 cm of dirt, the Army documents say, meaning that only an explosion overhead will have much effect on emplaced troops.
Russian forces have dug many such trenches along what they see as key roads and junctions, and outside strategic cities, Africk said. At least two locations, Tokmak and Bilmak in the Zaphorizhzhia region, are encircled by defensive works.
Frontline
UKRAINE
Dnipro
River
Bilmak
Ocheretuvate
Tokmak
Mykhailivka
Russia-held
Ukraine
Along
plain fields
Along major roads
Melitopol
Berdyansk
UKRAINE
Sea of Azov
10 km
A zoomed-in map shows fortifications around several towns such as Tokmak, Bilmak and Mykhailivka, along plain terrain and along major roads in Russian-held Ukraine.
Most of the trenches are built in a zig-zag or angular pattern, which limits enemy sight lines and offers additional protection from shell fragments coming from the side. In some cases, the trenches are clearly visible in satellite images, are not well concealed and are built in open spaces.
Town entrances
fortified
Road
fortified
领英推荐
Road
fortified
Town
Road
fortified
Layered
fortifications
Fortifications
outside a town
Trench
Layer 1
Layer 2
Airstrip fortified
Layer 3
Layer 4
Airstrip
Whole town fortified
Bridge fortified
Bridge
Town
Intersection
fortified
Satellite images show examples of fortifications built in Russian-held Ukraine.
Source: Planet Labs PBC
Being dug in does not automatically mean the defender has an advantage, said Mick Ryan, a retired major general in the Australian Army and a combat engineer. Poorly planned defensive positions might even make them worse off, he said.
“A dumb adversary dug in versus a smart one that is conducting maneuvers is a different kettle of fish,” Ryan said. “It all depends on how well-sited these obstacles are. … Once you dig yourself in, it’s very easy to find you.”
Obstacles and traps
Barriers can range from ditches and barbed wire to hardened concrete obstacles. They are meant to restrict an adversary’s ability to maneuver, or to funnel their forces into areas that make them more vulnerable to attack. For trucks and other wheeled vehicles that mostly stick to roads, this is an easier task: Barbed wire, tree trunks, and even deep holes can slow or stop them.
Excavated ditch
Wide and deep enough to prevent armoured vehicles from passing
An illustration shows what a typical excavated ditch looks like.
Africk said his research showed Russian anti-vehicle ditches and barriers such as “dragon’s teeth” - concrete pyramid blocks set in staggered rows to block tanks - were common in Ukraine. Jack-shaped steel “hedgehogs” use the same sort of mechanics, wrecking tracks or tipping tanks into vulnerable positions.
Hedgehog barrier
A static barrier that can damage a tank's tracks or expose its vulnerable underside
Three metal beams, sometimes made with train rails
Angle of cannon affected
Derail
Dragon’s teeth
Pointed concrete blocks form a barrier that makes it difficult for heavy vehicles to pass through
Usually arranged in two or three rows
Most effective if block is embedded in ground
Ground level
An illustration shows what hedgehog barriers and dragon’s teeth typically look like.
Tracked vehicles such as tanks and armoured personnel carriers can plow over or through most obstacles, as well as travel off road, which adds to the difficulty of stopping them. Although barriers can be effective, another common means of stopping such vehicles is a mine. These weapons are cheap, easily hidden, and some can be scattered via artillery - meaning personnel do not have to approach the area to place them.
Many, such as the Soviet-era TM-62, which has been widely used in Ukraine, will not detonate without the pressure or magnetic presence of a heavy vehicle. Others are “off-road” mines, such as the PARM systems Germany has supplied to Ukraine. They are deployed some distance from the target area and are triggered remotely, for instance with a tripwire, firing a small penetrator. All are devastating, even against heavy armour. Around Vuhdelar, a city in southern Ukraine that Russia pushed hard to capture during the winter, mines destroyed dozens of Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers and mine-clearing vehicles, Lee said.
“If Russia employs mines effectively as well, it will be difficult for Ukraine,” he said.
Special equipment is needed to clear a path through a minefield, Ryan said. Plows and rollers can be attached to tanks, or other heavy vehicles can fire line charges - ropes of explosives - to blow up mines. That sort of equipment, and more, has been included in all the recent U.S. and European security assistance packages, he said.
Plow with shield
Covering the tank tracks
Plows and rollers attached to tanks can trigger mines before the tracks reach them
Buried mine
Detonated by the pressure or magnetic influence of a heavy vehicle
Line charges
Explosives attached to the rocket with a line
Rocket
Cluster explosions can trigger the detonation of buried mines
Line
Trailer
Armored vehicle
Minefield
An illustration shows plows attached to a tank as it approaches a buried mine. Another drawing shows how an armored vehicle fires a rocket attached to a cluster of small explosives that trigger the detonation of buried mines.
The weather is another major factor. Mud - which appears seasonally in Ukraine during a period known locally as bezdorizhzhia that starts around March 1 - can make maneuvering off roads difficult or impossible even for tracked vehicles. During the mud season in 2022, many photos and videos emerged of Russian and Ukrainian vehicles that had been bogged down and abandoned.
Danger and messaging
The Ukrainian military’s counter-attacks in 2022 came largely against Russian forces that had not dug in, and were more widely dispersed than in 2023 because they were occupying more territory.
To some extent, looking at where Russian forces have built visible fortifications can help show what their commanders see as important, retired major general Ryan said.
UKRAINE
Melitopol
Major roads
fortified
Russia-held
Ukraine
Sea of Azov
Access to Crimea
fortified
Crimea
Yevpatoriya
Beach
fortifications
Simferopol
Chorne Sea
Sevastopol
UKRAINE
10 km
A map shows fortifications along major roads in southern Ukraine and Crimea.
“The Russian assessment appears to be that the Ukrainians’ most likely and most dangerous place to attack is in the south, particularly in Zaporizhzhia,” he said.
Breaking through
The sheer scale of the Russian defensive works is not, in itself, an obstacle, Ryan said. Ukraine’s military does not need to attack every kilometre in every theatre. Rather, commanders will weigh the strength of the defences, the importance of an area to their objective and the forces they can bring to bear against it, he said.
“Just because an area has heavy defences, it doesn’t mean you will choose not to fight through it,” he said. “Sometimes that is just what you have to do.”
Concentrating forces, a cornerstone of classic military doctrine, could offer Ukraine an advantage at a specific point on the front and allow them to push into Russian rear areas. That could unravel other defensive areas and create a wider breakthrough, said Lee at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Tanks and other armored vehicles must operate alongside engineers, artillery, and even aircraft to defeat layered defenses, he said - an approach called “combined arms” - and recent shipments of Western military gear would help with that.
Dragon’s teeth
Mined areas
It is common for the areas around fortifications to be heavily mined
The next layer is positioned 300-500 metres behind. It is common for these areas to also be heavily mined.
Around 300-500 metres
Dugouts
Irregular and zig-zag trenches
Revetments
Vehicle revetment
Provide protective cover for armored vehicles in "hull down" position
Dugouts
Offer relative safety and shelter for troops
Camouflaged area
It is common to utilize tree lines as camouflage for ammunition, observation posts, or anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) teams
Another layer of defences can follow about 300-500 metres behind the trenches and tree lines. This area can also be heavily mined.
About 300-500 metres
Anti-tank ditch
Dragon’s teeth
REAR
A series of illustrations show various layers of fortifications that approaching tanks or other armored vehicles could face. The layers can include dragon’s teeth, irregular and zig-zag trenches, revetments, camouflaged areas such as tree cover and anti-tank ditches.
Competent planning by Ukraine could prove even more valuable than better weapons, Ryan said.
“The most important assistance they have received is not so much the equipment, but… the training of battalion and brigade and higher-level staff in these very complex combined arms activities,” he said. “You can’t just get a pickup team and do this. It is the most complex ground operation you can conduct.”
The next move
How the front lines change in 2023 will come down to where Ukraine chooses to focus, what forces it uses and how well-prepared Russia is in those areas, Lee said.
Fortifications, if built and used properly, could make a major breakthrough difficult - but with Western provision of artillery shells most likely at its peak, Ukraine’s military may not get another chance, he said.
The fortifications, though, like other aspects of the war, will leave scars well after the last shell is fired, Africk said, telling of how another researcher found a mark he was having trouble interpreting on the terrain in a satellite photo of Ukraine.
Eventually, he realised he was looking at the remains of a trench from World War II.
“These things are going to be around for a long time,” Africk said.
Note
Frontline as of April 10, 2023.
Sources
Russian Fortifications, Brady Africk; Planet Labs PBC; Natural Earth; Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project; Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, NASA; WorldPop project, University of Southampton; LandScan program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; OpenStreetMap
Satellite imagery
Planet Labs PBC
Edited by
David Clarke; Mike Collett-White; Simon Scarr