Emerging Geopolitical Framework in the Backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine War

In the contemporary era, a consistent transformation in the #geopolitical landscape has been quite evident. Traditionally dedicated to its role as the forebearer of geopolitical order, the #US, at present seems to be more focused on its internal policy issues than on foreign policy. This disengagement of the #US has made room for the rise of other global powers, notably #China and #Russia, who are struggling to share the role of global #leadership with the US.?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated the evolution of the existing geopolitical framework, where the United States of America hegemony is being challenged by the Asian economic giant, #China which has its eye on the peaceful economic rise while also cautiously flexing its military muscle. #India, at present, is carefully watching the changing geopolitical dynamics and is drifting away from Russia, while simultaneously coming closer to the US and the West, whereas #Sino-Russian ties are blooming which is evident from the recent #Xi-#Putin summit. In these dynamics, #Pakistan is in a #catch22 situation.?

As the #RussiaUkrainewar continues to re-orient the geopolitical landscape, Asia watchers are largely engrossed in the upshots of the strategic competition among the global powers in their respective regions. Given this, India, an Asian economic giant, is cautiously navigating between the clashing geopolitical powers, the #unitedstates and #Russia which happens to be its two most important trade partners. #India’s consistent economic rise, though less remarkable than #China, is sufficient to be regarded as a key trend, and India tends to look beyond South Asia to specify its position. Presently, India seems to gradually #decouple itself from Russia, its history-long friend, and major energy and arms supplier to the country, while realigning itself with the #US and #Western nations such as #France and #Israel.??

#Russia’s breakdown from the West, given its #invasion of #Ukraine, has made it align with #China.?Ever since the #2020 #borderclashes between #China and #India that strained the relations between the two countries, Russia’s ties to China have become stronger. While on one hand, China is concerned about the #US rebalancing strategy in Asia suffocating its strategic space, it, on the other hand, also has its eyes on Russia in East Europe due to #NATO’s expansion. As a result of the international setup, China and Russia are almost on the same page.

Moreover, as a reaction to the efforts of the #West to #isolate #Russia, it is also revving up its own #“Pivot to the East” strategy. Under this strategy, Russia is improving its ties with #China, #Turkiye, #Iran, #UAE, and #Pakistan. Another factor that contributes to better Sino-Russian ties is Russia’s cold behavior towards the #indopacific concept, viewing it as a #Western design to contain China. From this point of view, they seem to be united in their animosity toward the West. Internal security concerns, as well as internal ideological factors, are also driving this alignment.?

In the shifting geo-political order, Pakistan continues to be one of China’s closest allies and strategic partners and Beijing is the first stop on Islamabad’s route to Moscow. Over the last decade, #Moscow has shown increased interest in the #CPEC, the #BRI’s centerpiece project. #Russia’s anticipated future participation in #CPEC will strengthen the nexus and strategic cooperation between #Beijing, #Moscow, and #islamabad and will have more opportunities to strengthen their trilateral cooperation. If Russia formally joins #CPEC, it will be a significant development in bilateral relations between Moscow and Islamabad, opening avenues for potential and economic opportunities for both countries.

In a nutshell, the traditional #Western dominant world order, once pivoting around #America and led by its #liberalvalues and #economic policies ever since the end of World War II, no longer seems to be a realistic parameter to determine future global events. Presently, in the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, a paradigm shift in the geopolitical landscape from unilateralism to multilateralism is underway.

We face a future, where #multilateralism, the power distribution among two or more states, seems to be the utmost reality, and any prevalent risk equally impacts the increasingly #globalized world. Given this, the snowball effect of the Russian unprovoked war is also immense, impacting #regional and #global security, trade, and energy supply, an increase in #oil and #electricity prices, a surge in interest rates by central banks, and a rise in living expenses and unemployment. Moreover, the #ukrainecrisis has accelerated a realignment in the power dynamics among the major actors such as the United States, China, Russia, India, and Pakistan, thereby, reshaping and reconstructing the contemporary economic construct and #geopolitical order.