Emerging from Emergency with a Systemic Transformation for People, Planet and Prosperity

By Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Elise Buckle

2020 marks the fifth anniversary of the Paris Climate Agreement and the launch of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Both are historical achievements that gave fresh impetus to global policy discussions and brought renewed hope for the long-awaited radical transformation. Five years down the line, much of the original excitement and anticipation has worn off.

Where we are now? 2020, the Year of Planetary Emergency

2020 will mostly be remembered as the year in which the convergence of the climate and biodiversity crises reached a tipping point and spilled over into a devastating pandemic, which has infected millions of people around the world and claimed over 700,000 lives, with numbers rising. [1]

The emerging global health crisis is the symptom of a much deeper and longer-term disruption, and the socio-economic system is the underlying driver of both existing social and ecological challenges

The emerging global health crisis is the symptom of a much deeper and longer-term disruption. Science tells us that deforestation, biodiversity loss, wildlife trafficking and meat consumption increase the risks of pandemics. Nearly three quarters of infectious diseases come from animals, as a spill-over effect of their natural habitat loss or industrial meat production. Our consumption patterns drive more and more resource-intensive industries, mining and agricultural production. We are in a Planetary Emergency and the existential risks are real. The current socio-economic system is the underlying driver of both existing social and ecological challenges, with assaults on natural systems compounding the limits to wellbeing. [2]

The biggest challenge is that the current systems do not account for the negative effects that extraction, use, and disposal of natural resources have on human wellbeing. Financial growth is prioritised at the expense of all else; other indicators of wellbeing, such as health, education, and a clean environment, are undervalued or not valued at all. COVID-19 and the financial consequences of the economic lockdown have been dire, and yet have made it even more apparent how the global response to global warming and biodiversity loss has been inadequate. The amount of financial support deployed or promised to the COVID-19 recovery is vast compared with any efforts related to the greening of the economy, tackling global warming, or stopping ecosystem decline.

How did we get here? Planetary Boundaries and the Limits to Growth

Staying within the Planetary Boundaries is essential to secure a green, just and healthy future for all on Earth. Development programmes and actions, however well-intended, will not be sustainable unless we respect those boundaries and protect our biosphere – Agenda 2030 is no exception. Models such as the SDG “wedding cake” (below) and the “doughnut economy” model illustrate, demonstrate the interconnection well by showing that people and prosperity both depend on a healthy planet. [3]

If done properly, the Paris Agreement and the SDGs, in essence, should provide a comprehensive (universal development) plan for people and planet, with the aim to guarantee peace, prosperity and opportunity for all on a healthy planet [4]

 by 2030. Since 2015, some progress has been made but it remains slow and uneven – both in terms of the implementation on the ground as well as the distribution of funds and compensation. This falls far short of the emergency at hand.

Global economic and social wellbeing are dependent on a healthy biosphere

Source: J.Lokranz/Azote a Rokstr?m & Sukhdev (2016) i Folke et al. (2016)

Five years into the journey, we have managed to raise general awareness about the importance of and need for ‘sustainable development’, but still face a lack of deep understanding about the interlinkages between our different systems and the implications. Where Agenda 2030 recognises the existence of Planetary Boundaries, it does not acknowledge the ‘limits to growth’. Past research indicates that it is impossible to attain the SDGs within planetary boundaries through conventional means of economic development [5]

Almost fifty years ago now, the Limits to Growth Report, commissioned by the Club of Rome in 1972, was visionary and accurate in many ways. It highlighted the inherent tensions between population growth, development and the limited availability of natural resources of water, energy and food – deeming the conventional growth paradigm unsustainable [6]

This message has not been internalised yet today. Perhaps the fact that Agenda 2030 provides little guidance for implementing of the desired transformation is partly to blame.

Where Agenda 2030 recognises the existence of Planetary Boundaries, it does not acknowledge the ‘limits to growth’: it is impossible to attain the SDGs within planetary boundaries through conventional means of economic development

There is still a long way to go to fully reach the climate and SDG targets agreed upon democratically by nearly all nations five years ago. Global emissions are still rising and, with every passing year, the gap is widening between where we are and where we should be to achieve our climate ambitions widens [7]

In Australia, the forest fires in 2019 released 900 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the equivalent of 2 years of annual emissions for the whole country. Massive fires and record-high temperatures plagued Siberia, California and the Amazon this summer, with double rates of deforestation and perma-frost loss compared to 2019. As global warming is accelerating more and more negative feedback loops are created: recurrent droughts and heatwaves are impacting ecosystems and forests, which cannot sequester carbon anymore, but release even more carbon when burning. The same may soon become true of the oceans and seas: while they are often hailed as the best blue carbon pumps, they are overheating, which causes acidity levels to rise and coral to bleach subsequently.

The rise in poverty only compounds the problem, as the world’s most vulnerable are on the front lines of climate disasters, biodiversity loss and pandemics, as we have so clearly seen with COVID. According to the latest Oxfam report, socio-economic inequalities are on the rise: the world’s 2,153 billionaires have more wealth than 4.6 billion people who make up 60% of the world’s population [8]

The converging impacts and complexities of rising inequality paired with climate change and biodiversity loss have hit the world by storm. While the “Gilet Jaunes” fight for fairer taxation policy, the youth criticise leaders for their lack of action on climate. How do we ensure that we respond to both the needs of many to survive to the end of the month as well as the concerns clearly so voiced by the next generation regarding the impending ‘end of the world’?

Where do we go from here? Towards a green, healthy and just recovery for people and the planet

We do not know how to reconstruct the ice sheets and Arctic sea ice, the hydrological cycle, the rainforests, coral reefs and all other life-support systems on Earth. The tipping points previously outlined are only the beginning. If we wait for the emergency to fully manifest itself, it will simply be too late to reverse the breakdown of human and natural systems and ensuing health crises it will have caused [9]

How leaders decide to stimulate the economy is decisive for our future trajectory. Without a question, the cost of inaction is much larger than the budget dedicated to the green recovery: Business As Usual (BAU) scenarios, investments in fossil fuels and natural resource depletion would take us well beyond our Planetary Boundaries. We now have the opportunity to transform by design rather than through disaster, so let us do so. A stable, resilient and prosperous future for people and planet—the most desirable future for all—remains within our grasp.

How leaders decide to stimulate the economy is decisive for our future trajectory: the cost of inaction is much larger than the budget dedicated to the green recovery

Yet, our window of opportunity is narrow and time is running out. We need to acknowledge that this is a planetary emergency and ensure that we immediately put in place the commitments and actions needed to secure a healthy planet for healthy people and emerge from emergency. The next 18 months will be critical, if we want to bend the curve, achieve the targets set out by the Paris Agreement and boost the implementation of the SDGs. The financial funds required to support a green, just and healthy recovery are there: cross 16 major economies, economic stimulus packages will pump approximately USD 2.2 trillion directly into sectors that have a large impact on the biosphere [10]

We know what the solutions are: investing in renewable energy instead of fossil fuels and harmful subsidies; protecting and restoring nature; investing in reforestation, sustainable food systems, regenerative agriculture, agroecology; shifting to a more local, circular and low carbon economy. With nature as our ally, nature-based solutions (NBS) could absorb a third of the emission targets set out by The Paris Agreement. Mangroves, for instance, capture carbon, protect communities from disasters, and provide natural habitats for fish and food for families. There are plenty of positive examples that we could include in a narrative of hope and possibilities for regeneration of life on Earth.

These solutions are part of a puzzle that, spread out together, form a bigger picture: We cannot stare blind at the individual targets and need to move away from thinking about policy domains as compartmentalised silos. This is the idea behind the “wedding cake” too. In 2015, the United Nations presented the SDGs as part of an integrated system, requiring a horizontal, rather than vertical, policy approach. Over the past five years, however, policymakers worked on strategies for deforestation, decarbonisation or sanitation often without fully taking into account the interconnections between climate, biodiversity and health. Costa Rica might be one of the few countries that has developed a new model of governance, with all Ministers working together for the same purposes, the achievement of the SDGs and the decarbonization of the economy. Other governments, for example in Finland, have set up an SDG Commission or an SDG Council to advance the 2030 Agenda through a more cross-sectoral approach. These are small, but significant, steps forward.

The SDGs are part of an integrated system that requires a horizontal political approach: we need to move away from thinking about policy domains as compartmentalised silos

We need to be realistic in our approach and honest in our communications: we cannot all be winners. Even in a just transition scenario, certain communities or regions will be more heavily impacted – try selling the message of justice and hope to a coal miner who is at risk of losing his/her job and livelihood. Policymakers need to be open about trade-offs and negative externalities. Above all, we should be ready to offer a counternarrative of alternative pathways, including access to education and employment programmes fostering transformative learning and innovation, reskilling and retraining of displaced workers and youth to increase the resilience of future generations to economic, health and ecological shocks post-COVID-19 [11]

After all, the pandemic, for all its losses, provides unprecedented opportunities as well: A systemic transformation of society and a nature-positive recovery could create 395 millions of jobs and deliver 10.1 trillions of economic value, starting with the transformation of these systems: food, land-use and oceans, as well as the built environment, extractives and energy [12]

Such a transformation needs to impact all sectors of the economy and entail integrating new indicators focused on wellbeing of people and planet, moving away from traditional measures of growth and prosperity. Environmental safety, climate, health and social resilience should become the new metrics to measure the success of the recovery, not just GDP.

The transformation that the pandemic enables needs to impact all sectors of the economy and entail integrating new indicators focused on wellbeing of people and planet, moving away from traditional measures of growth and prosperity

Looking at the global policy response to the pandemic, it is clear that the countries that have invested most in public services, health, social security and other safety nets have proven to be most resilient in the face of this crisis. The fact that most of these countries are being led by women (Germany, New Zealand, Iceland, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Taiwan) is not a coincidence. These states showed leadership not only due to the ways they have commenced integrating SDG systems thinking into their government structures but also but also in the way they handled the crisis and managed their communications with their citizens . New Zealand, for example, have shaped their national budget as a ‘Well-Being Budget’ and its Prime Minister has been applauded for handling of the crisis and its clarity of messaging around the health pandemic. In contrast, countries that have been suffering the most through COVID (notably the UK, USA and Brazil) divested from public infrastructure, ecosystems protection and health services prior to COVID. These states are also most impacted by major droughts and forest fires, displaced communities and widespread loss of income, paired with a rise of inter-racial violence, social tension and civil unrest.

Getting there: Raising ambition to respond to the planetary emergency, implementing the Planetary Emergency Plan, and growing the movement for People and the Planet

What are the lessons that we can draw from the global policy response to the COVID-pandemic? How can we effectively address the deep-rooted crises and design near-term solutions for long-term systems change in order to build resilience to future shocks? How do we get to a green, just and health recovery?

Change is happening everywhere around us. The good news is that a growing number of leaders and supporters are joining the movement for radical transformation and citizens are increasingly aware of the intrinsic dependency of human beings on nature.

The Planetary Emergency Plan Version 2.013 recently published by The Club of Rome provides a compass for all nations to respond to the on-going planetary emergency. It is now supported by a growing number of UN institutions, governments, businesses, think tanks and civil society organizations, and backed up by a Planetary Emergency Partnership which now counts more than 250 stakeholders.

As a response to the planetary emergency, more than 50 countries are currently endorsing a new Pledge for Nature and declaring a “Planetary Emergency”, which will be announced at the UN on the 28th of September, two days before the Biodiversity Summit. This is a significant number of leaders coming together with a strong and united political signal, placing nature and people at the top of the agenda in the context of the social and economic recovery. Many more are expected to join, forming a “Coalition of the Willing” and spotlighting Heads of States and countries who are leading the way towards a green, healthy and just recovery.

Now is the moment to ensure that we do not go back to business as usual and that we do indeed use the Planetary Emergency Plan as a real compass for the way in which we engage and exist within our planet

The EU recently adopted a Green New Deal and a massive pledge of 650 billion Euros earmarking 30% for sustainable agriculture and climate action. Europe is definitely taking the leadership on a green and social recovery post COVID the question is whether European members states will follow through on implementation. China’s new stimulus package, designed in 2020, looks very different from the one that was designed in 2008 after the financial crisis and also seems to be moving towards a green and social recovery. The remaining question is whether China will be able to move away from coal power plant development. That said Chinese companies and citizens are increasingly aware of environmental issues and also playing their part to move towards what China calls “an ecological civilization”. With regard to other emerging economies Costa Rica has moved in a similar direction as the EU and other countries are in the process of planning their own packages, but due to the current economic impact of COVID many developing countries are still relying heavily on debt cancellations and new loans from the IMF and the World Bank to recover at all.

Around the world, there is a bottom-up movement of mobilisation, which triggers and complements top-down policy-making. Business leaders are uniting to accelerate action for climate and biodiversity. The Fridays for the Future climate movement led by Greta Thunberg has made its way into the offices of the highest EU decision-makers and similar movements are now starting to emerge on nature based solutions [14]

To conclude, 2020 is not over yet – we can still make this year the start of a successful Decade of Action. Let us not only declare a Planetary Emergency, but also show what can be done to emerge from it. Now is the moment to ensure that we do not go back to business as usual and that we do indeed use the Planetary Emergency Plan as a real compass for the way in which we engage and exist within our planet. This is the greatest test and predicament for humankind. One which was already predicted 50 years ago by esteemed scientists and thought leaders yet disregarded and ridiculed as unrealistic. We owe it to this Earth we call home to rise to the challenge of a truly symbiotic relationship between people and planet.

Co-creation, radical collaboration and partnerships are at the heart of such relationship, for we can only succeed if we work together. Now is the moment to embrace the importance of collaboration and solidarity between nations, as we reflect on the global impact of one of the greatest pandemics ever. It is the time for transformation and the co-creation of solutions and leadership. It is through collective national, regional and local action that decision makers and citizens can move forward towards a brighter future.

Suggestions for collective action

Below are some concrete suggestions for collective action with the hope that you will join this essential transformational moment:

1. Nations and local communities are invited to declare a Planetary Emergency (e.g: through a Parliamentary, City Council resolution) and adopt a Planetary Emergency Plan to raise ambition and respond to the emergency; governments are also invited to endorse the Pledge for Nature that will soon be launched at the UN just before the UN Biodiversity Summit.
2. Governments, companies, investors, universities, regional and local entities, and all institutions that can implement change are invited to adopt a truly cross-sectoral and systemic approach to deeply transform our societies based on the Doughnut Economy model; budgeting and monitoring progress can be achieved through a new sets of indicators placing the well-being of people and nature at the centre of our valuation systems.
3. Hundreds of companies are now signing up to the “Nature is everyone’s business” Call to Action [15] and the full list of signatories will be announced on 21 September during the 75th Session of the UN General Assembly;
4. All leaders and citizens of all walks of life are invited to work together in a spirit of “radical collaboration”[16] Climate & Sustainability Mission Statement.
5.  and solidarity, going beyond traditional boundaries to accelerate action and address the planetary emergency in a collective effort to advance positive change for people and the planet. Everyone can become a leader by talking to and mobilizing his or her community, family, university, company and by changing consumption patterns [17]
6. See for an example: TEDxCountdown.

The United Nations has stewarded societies through an unprecedented period of peace through economic cooperation. Agenda 2030 and the Paris Agreement are important milestones and set the tone for what needs to be done to “emerge from emergency” and create a more harmonious relationship between people and planet.

As we face an even greater challenge post COVID, we must all become stewards of the future and protect Global Commons, promoting universal access to food, energy, water and health care in order to ensure resilience to future crises and deliver prosperity for all. Now is the time to rethink, redistribute, regenerate; it is time for a global reset to shape the future that our children deserve.

REFERENCES

• 1 —  COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University   Available online.
• 2 — Von Weizs?cker, E. & Wijkman, A. (2018) Come on! Capitalism, Short-termism, Population and the Destruction of the Planet. Nova York, NY: Springer.
• 3 — The concept of the Doughnut Economy has been designed by Kate Raworth, economist and Member of the Club of Rome.  
• 4 — The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2020, page. 2. Available online.
• 5 — Randers, J., et. al. (2018). “Transformation Is Feasible: How to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries” Stockholm Resilience Centre Report.
• 6 — Meadows D. and Club of Rome (1972). The Limits to Growth: A Report for The Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Nova York, NY: Universe Books.
• 7 — UNEP Emission Gap Report 2019. Available online.
• 8 — Lawson, M., et al. (2020). Time to Care: Unpaid and underpaid care work and the global inequality crisis Available online.
• 9 — The Club of Rome and Potsdam Institute (2020). Planetary Emergency Plan 2.0: Securing a New Deal for People, Nature and Climate. Page 12. Available online.
• 10 — Vivid Economics Green Stimulus Index 2020. Available online.
• 11 — The Club of Rome & Potsdam Institute (2020). Planetary Emergency Plan 2.0: Securing a New Deal for People, Nature and Climate, page 8. Available online.
• 12 — WEF Nature Economy Report Series 2020. Available online.
• 13 — The Club of Rome & Potsdam Institute (2020). Planetary Emergency Plan 2.0: Securing a New Deal for People, Nature and Climate Available online.
• 14 — See also: Youth for NatureYouth for Nature.
• 15 — Nature is Everyone’s Business Call to Action. Available online.
• 16 — Climate & Sustainability Mission Statement. Available online.
• 17 — See for an example: TEDxCountdown.