Embraer Releases Updated Commercial Aviation Market Outlook (2024 - 2043)

Embraer has provided their updated 2024 - 2043 Commercial Aviation Market Outlook. Highlights are provided below and the full outlook is available at https://www.embraercommercialaviation.com/marketoutlook/

Global Demand and Market Value:

- Total Demand: 10,500 new jets and turboprops (sub-150-seat category) by 2043.

- Jets: 8,470 units

- Turboprops: 2,030 units

- Market Value: USD 640 billion

Regional Leadership in Jet Deliveries:

1. North America: 2,610 jets (30.8%)

2. China & Asia Pacific: 2,260 jets (26.7%)

3. Europe & CIS: 2,110 jets (24.9%)

4. Latin America: 770 jets (9.1%)

5. Africa: 380 jets (4.5%)

6. Middle East: 340 jets (4.0%)

Regional Leadership in Turboprop Deliveries:

1. China & Asia Pacific: 980 units (48.3%)

2. North America: 350 units (17.2%)

3. Europe & CIS: 290 units (14.3%)

4. Africa: 220 units (10.8%)

5. Latin America: 160 units (7.9%)

6. Middle East: 30 units (1.5%)

Passenger Traffic Growth (RPK - Revenue Passenger Kilometers):

- Global Growth Rate: 4% annually through 2043.

- Regional Growth Rates:

- Asia Pacific (including China): 5.0%

- Latin America: 4.9%

- Africa: 4.4%

- Middle East: 4.4%

- Europe: 3.3%

- North America: 2.4%

RPK Share by 2043:

- Asia Pacific: 38%

- Europe & North America: 38%

Key Insights:

- The relevance of the sub-150-seat jets is increasing, particularly for medium and lower-density markets.

- A mixed fleet of small narrowbodies and larger aircraft is optimal for diverse airline network needs.

- Growth in online commerce creates new opportunities for small-narrowbody freighters.

Executive Quote:

Arjan Meijer, President & CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, emphasizes the importance of a mixed fleet strategy and the efficient, cost-effective nature of sub-150-seat aircraft for maintaining high-frequency air service to smaller cities in a post-pandemic environment.