The Elite Running Backs Will Win - or the NFL and Fans Will Lose

“Grand strategy is the art of looking beyond the present battle and calculating ahead. Focus on your ultimate goal and plot to reach it.” - Robert Greene

Football is arguably the most team-centric of the four major North American professional sports: with increased player specialization, an NFL franchise’s 53-man roster is, more than a basketball, baseball, or hockey team, a large and complex collection of interdependent moving parts. Football’s compensation structure long recognized this reality, especially within the confines of the NFL’s salary cap.? Given the size of a team and the number of different (and non-interchangeable) roles that needed to be filled, no one player or position could dominate compensation in the way seen in the NBA or MLB.? Unfortunately, that accepted wisdom appears to be fading from the NFL, as teams unwisely pursue roster construction strategies that concentrate resources at one position (quarterback) that, in a salary cap environment, require the money to come from somewhere else; as is evident from the most recent off-season, it appears that the NFL is determined to pay nearly all starting quarterbacks as though they are league-dominant superstars, and to pay for it teams have apparently decided that all running backs should be paid like replacement-level players.? This strategy is ahistorical, belied by even recent NFL history, and is sure to backfire.?

The weapon of choice for NFL teams pursuing the foregoing strategy this off-season was the “franchise tag”, which originated in the 1993 version of the NFL/NFLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement (the “CBA”), and which remains in the most recent version of the CBA that went effective in 2020 and expires at the end of 2030.?? The franchise tag originally was intended to apply only to true “franchise”-level quarterbacks; however, over time its scope has expanded and this past off-season, NFL owners appears to have collusively weaponized it to suppress the market for running back compensation.? The owners’ short-sighted attack may have enabled them to prevail in the battle for 2023 but will assuredly cause them to lose the war.?

A Short History of the Franchise Tag (Elway Rule)

The franchise tag, originally dubbed the “Elway Rule”, was conceived in 1993, after the Denver Broncos owner refused to sign that year’s proposed CBA for fear of losing his star quarterback, John Elway, to free agency.? As a result, the 1993 CBA–for the first time in NFL history–created a free agency structure which was hedged by the creation of a salary cap and the franchise tag.? It gave teams additional leverage in free-agent contract negotiations by enabling them to unilaterally impose a one-year contract upon a player; a player could not freely negotiate with other teams for a long-term contract while subject to the franchise tag, and the year-to-year basis of the tag robbed the player of the financial security coming from a longer-term deal.? The only benefit to the player is that the imposed salary under the tag guarantees “star”-level compensation relative to that player’s position.? While originally only used for quarterbacks, the position-by-position parsing of player compensation under the franchise tag is what caused the current depressed market for running backs, because systematic underpayment of an entire position means that “star” level compensation still fails to reflect a player’s true value. ?

In 2011, the owners and the NFL players could not come to a consensus on a new CBA. The owners locked out the players from team facilities and shut down league operations from March 12, 2011 to July 25, 2011.? The end of the lockout coincided with the formation of a new 10-year CBA prior to the start of the 2011 regular season.? During the lockout, NFL Commissioner Roger Goddell stated that the NFL player’s career average length was almost six years, and more like nine years for 1st round draft picks.? According to a 2016 Wall Street Journal investigative report, the average NFL career length substantially declined between the years of 2008-2014, which was during the pendency of this CBA.???

In 2020, the NFL players approved a new 10 year-CBA by a razor thin margin with 1,019 “yes” votes and 959 “no” votes.? Despite the trend of shorter playing careers, the players nevertheless agreed to expand the regular season to 17 games and to increase the playoff field by two teams.? The franchise tag, although decades after it morphed far away from its intended use, remained intact.

Fast forward to 2023: the average career length for NFL players has continued to decline and is now approximately 3.3 seasons.? In 2023, for the first time, the owners have seemingly colluded to weaponize the tag and utilize it to attack the league’s elite running backs.? This unprecedented attack has been both direct, through use of the tag on elite running backs, and indirect, by and through the lack of extensions offered to elite running backs (even after being tagged), the suppression of running back compensation, and a reduction in the length of contractual years offered to running backs in free agency.?

The Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag calculation

The non-exclusive franchise tag amount is calculated per position and is based upon the average of the top five salaries of a given position over the past five seasons, and adjusted for the salary cap of the given season.? By way of recent background, in 2021, the NFL salary cap was $185.5 million.? That season, the franchise tag for the quarterback position was $24.1 million and the franchise tag for the running back position was $11.1 million.? In 2023, the NFL salary cap increased to $224.8 million (21% increase). ?As quarterback salaries have been ever increasing, the franchise tag for the quarterback position increased to $32.4 million (34% increase), while the tag for the running position actually declined to $10.1 million (9% decline). The quarterback franchise tag represents 14.5% of the overall salary cap and is $11.5 million higher than the second highest positional tag: linebacker at $20.9 million.

2023: Use of the Franchise Tag

During this past off-season, NFL teams used the tag on only six players, three of which were Pro Bowl Running Backs: Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, and league leading rusher Josh Jacobs.? Of the six tagged players, three players received lucrative long-term contract extensions from their teams.? Notably, none of them were the three elite running backs.?

The Current Running Back Conundrum - Superior Play / Inferior Pay

Running backs currently face the following conundrum: they are extremely valuable on a season-by-season basis (“Annual Value”) during their peak performance years but are not projected to play for as many seasons as other positions (“Career Value”).? Exacerbating the running back dilemma is that unlike other positions, elite running backs often “hit the ground running” and their peak performance years start as early as their rookie year when their compensation is tied to a four-year rookie scale contract with compensation determined by the CBA and based specifically on when they are selected in the NFL draft. ?Rather than being compensated at an appropriate Annual Value for their peak performance years, such compensation is suppressed for four seasons.

Historically, elite running backs have nevertheless been rewarded with significant second contracts.? However, this off-season, NFL teams, through the use of the franchise tag, have now unleashed a new weapon to further diminish the running backs annual compensation, depress their compensation for more of their peak years, and thus reduce their potential Career Value.??

By and through weaponizing the franchise tag against the running back position and further suppressing running back compensation, NFL teams have waged a war against the running back position.? Such an act converts them from football players to football commodities and is divisive and totally antithetical to team building and unity.? It invites and incentivizes player selfishness and completely disincentives the team-which runs counter to good and smart business with a long-term view and to winning football games.

The De-Valued Running Back False Narrative?

The popular media consistently justifies and even promotes the superficial and false narrative that running backs have no leverage and have been devalued because there is little correlation between running backs and winning – that it is a passing league and running backs quickly accumulate significantly worn tread on the tire which leads to have the shortest positional career trajectory, and that they are easily replaceable.? Take, for example, an ESPN NFL Draft Analyst, Matt Miller’s post on X: “Been saying it for years; 1. Draft a RB, 2. Play the RB…if he’s good…3. Franchise tag the RB ONE TIME…and then.. 1. Draft a RB…”?

Such perfunctory narrative is fully dismissive of the immense individual talent and value that elite running backs bring to the game because that narrative presupposes that there are no elite NFL running backs.? As discussed further below, this agenda-driven assertion is false and belied by recent NFL history.? Any casual observer of NFL games can discern that there are elite players at every position; there are elite quarterbacks and workaday quarterbacks, just as there are elite running backs, elite wide receivers, elite linemen, and elite defenders, all with journeyman counterparts.? Every NFL franchise constructs a roster by balancing the availability and need for elite production at a half-dozen specialized positions.? However, rather than correct the imbalance, the false and simplistic narrative has been echoed by NFL executives.? When discussing Saquon Barkley, Joe Shoen, the General Manager of the New York Giants, stated: “Whether it’s longevity of the position, a team has to do what’s best for their organization.”? When talking about the Indianapolis Colts’ failure to even offer elite running back Jonathan Taylor an extension, the Colts General Manager, Chris Ballard simply stated “The market is what the market is.”? Recently, Steelers GM Omar Khan pointed to massive new QB contracts as a reason why RBs are becoming devalued.? Oftentimes, references to the running backs’ compensation conundrum are presented in a tone which evokes Michael Corleone’s famous non-apology in The Godfather: “it’s not personal, it’s strictly business.”?

While the owners have to do what is best for their business, the elite running backs have to do what is in their best interests pursuant to the very same CBA: undertake efforts to increase their career longevity and thus increase their Annual Value and Career Value.? Such undertaking can have a substantially deleterious impact upon the league.?

It Is Not the Quarterback Position, It Is the Few Actual Elite Quarterbacks - Always

Six out of the last seven Super Bowls featured either Tom Brady and/or Patrick Mahomes as a starting quarterback.? In 2021, Joe Burrow, a quarterback on a rookie contract, started for the Cincinnati Bengals.?? Tom Brady appeared in ten Super Bowls, won seven, and had a career playoff record of 35-13.? Patrick Mahomes has been an NFL starting quarterback for five years.? He has reached three Super Bowls (winning two) and two AFC Championship games.? He has a career playoff record of 11-3, with two losses facing off against Tom Brady.? Their collective success is not a statistical anomaly, nor is it a function of the NFL currently being described as a passing-oriented league.? The NFL has always been an elite quarterback league.? In fact, in the entire history of 57 Super Bowls, 11 quarterbacks have started in at least three Super Bowls totaling 47 of the 57 games, or a historical total of 82%.? Some of these quarterbacks, such as Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, and Roger Staubach dominated Super Bowl appearances when the NFL was considered a running back dominant league.?

The very simple reality is that whatever the offense, the elite NFL quarterbacks repeatedly find themselves in the Super Bowl-not merely quarterbacks, or any other highly paid position.? It is the elite quarterbacks who make the magic happen.? Wide receivers are paid practically twice as much as elite running backs and they rarely factor in making or succeeding in a Super Bowl.? Tom Brady never won a Super Bowl with Randy Moss, one of the best wide receivers of all-time.? In fact, Randy Moss never won a Super Bowl.? The two best receivers that Tom Brady ever played with were undersized and non-Pro Bowl player, Julian Edelman and undersized and undrafted 5’9” Wes Welker.?

The $40/mil.+ Quarterbacks (Aside from Patrick Mahomes): 29-30 Aggregate Playoff Record, Elite Compensation for Non-Elite Quarterbacks

The disconnect is that, despite clear evidence that elite quarterbacks are difference-makers (and the obvious fact that elite quarterbacks are, by definition, rare), the NFL apparently insists on paying most quarterbacks as though they are elite.? This offseason, four quarterbacks signed contracts worth in excess of $50 million per season.? This represents an allocation of over 22% of the entire team salary cap to one player: the quarterback.? As the highest annual quarterback salary soars, so will the franchise tag for the quarterback position.?

There are currently 11 NFL quarterbacks not named Patrick Mahomes (now the 8th highest paid quarterback in the NFL) who are paid an average annual income equal to or in excess of $40 million.? The aggregate playoff record of these Quarterbacks is 29 - 30.? They are paid to be elite Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, but they are not elite.? Only two of these 11 quarterbacks has won a Super Bowl: Matthew Stafford in 2021 and Russell Wilson in 2013.? Russell Wilson was in the second year of his rookie contract as a third-round draft pick when he won the Super Bowl. He was also playing for the Seattle Seahawks that featured the “legion of boom” defense, which set an NFL record for fewest points allowed and, along with the 1985 Chicago Bears, is considered one of the best defenses in NFL history.? Ironically, Russell Wilson may have won a second Super Bowl the following season if he had handed the ball off to running back Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch at the 1-yard line on 2nd down and with 25 seconds remaining, rather than throwing an interception to Malcolm Butler.?

Just below the $40 million threshold is quarterback Derek Carr who was signed this offseason by the New Orleans Saints to a four-year, $150 million contract ($37.5 million a season).? His career thus far: nine seasons, over $100 million in career earnings, and a playoff record of 0-1.? Kirk Cousins, a four-time Pro Bowler and perhaps one of the best regular season quarterbacks of all-time, signed a $35 million contract for this season. Over his 11-year career he has already earned over $200 million for a 1-4 playoff record.?????

The math is simple.? The NFL has a hard salary cap.? The more quarterbacks are (over)paid, the less money there is to pay other players.? This season, the NFL owners have seemingly gone on an all-out squeeze on the running back position, but other positional players should beware-as quarterback salaries continue to escalate, they may be next.?

To illustrate this point—that elite running backs can be difference makers, even with non-elite quarterback play—a few examples from very recent NFL history follow.

2022: Christian McCaffrey and Rookie QB, Mr. Irrelevant - Brock Purdy

Last season, the San Francisco 49ers started out the season with Trey Lance at quarterback, the former 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft.? The 49ers certainly invested the kind of draft capital into Trey that would indicate they viewed him as being potentially elite, but Trey has not produced at an elite level.? Sadly, Trey was injured just as the season began, and highly paid back-up Jimmy Garrapolo took over at quarterback. The 49ers started the season 3-3.? Then, the 49ers traded for running back, Christian McCaffrey.? The 49ers lost the next game to the Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City Chiefs.? Jimmy Grappolo was injured later in the season and rookie third string quarterback Brock Purdy, deemed Mr. Irrelevant as he was selected at #262 (the last draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft), took over as the starting QB.? Brock was paid the league minimum of $705,000, approximately $40 million less than the top 10 highest paid quarterbacks.?? He was a good, competent quarterback, certainly outperforming his actual compensation, but hardly elite.? Nonetheless, the 49ers won 12 straight games and reached the NFC Championship game, due primarily to the efforts of elite running back Christian McCaffrey with the assistance of the lowest paid and most inexperienced quarterback in the league, Brock Purdy.? The value of the elite running back on the 49ers and lack of necessity of the highly paid quarterback is self-evident.???

2022: Austin Ekeler, the Receiver that Lines Up as a Running Back or the $92 million Chargers Trio

Austin Ekeler is a true offensive hybrid player.? He is, at the same time, the Los Angeles Chargers’ leading wide receiver and running back.? Further, he has led the league in touchdowns the last two seasons.? He just completed his 6th, and best, season.? There are no apparent signs of worn tread on his tire.? Despite his accomplishments and clear Annual Value, the Chargers refused to extend his contract or trade him - thus, at the same time depressing his Annual Value and diminishing his Aggregate Value.? Rather, Austin is paid well below many team’s 3rd string wide receivers and less than many other running backs.?

Why is he even deemed a running back for compensation purposes?? Last season, Austin Ekeler was on the field for 734 offensive plays.? He rushed the ball 204 times and gained 915 yards (28%).? He was targeted as a wide receiver on 127 passing attempts (17%), catching 107 passes which was the 5th most receptions by any wide receiver in the entire NFL.? He far surpassed his highly paid Chargers wide receiver teammates in receptions, Keenan Allen (66) and Mike Williams (63).?

Austin Ekeler was directly involved in the offensive play on 331 out of the 734 offensive plays that he was on the field (he ran the ball 204 times and was targeted with a pass 127 times).? This means that he was not directly involved in the play on 403 plays (55%).? What was he doing on the majority of such plays?? The simple answer is that he was likely acting as a wide receiver - either as a decoy or running a pass pattern but was not thrown the ball.? The Chargers 2nd and 3rd leading rushers rarely ran the ball (Josh Kelley (69 carries) and Quarterback Juston Herbert (54 carries).? On the other hand, Herbert threw a total of 699 passes.?? As such and based upon the language in the NFL CBA that Colts owner, Irsay, said “took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides,” Austin Ekeler played more than 50% of the snaps that he was on the field as a wide receiver and not a running back and should be classified and paid as a wide receiver.??????????

The Los Angeles Chargers have $92 million a year invested in quarterback Justin Herbert ($52.5 million) and wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.? Combined the trio’s playoff record is 3-5. Austin Ekeler, on the other hand, is being improperly positionally labeled and paid approximately $8 million this season.? Clearly, on an Annual and Aggregate Value basis Austin Ekeler is and has been vastly undervalued and undercompensated.???

2022: Saquon Barkley or Daniel Jones?

Last season, the New York Giants improved from 4-13 to 9-7-1, made the playoffs, and won a playoff game.? Not coincidentally, elite running back Saquon Barkley returned to the field healthfully after rehabilitating from injury over the prior two seasons.? He accounted for 1,650 yards from scrimmage last season (which included a career best 1,312 rushing yards and 57 receptions totaling 338 yards and personally accounted for 29 percent of the Giants’ total yards on offense.? The Giants’ quarterback, Daniel Jones, had a solid but unspectacular season.? This off-season, the Giants chose to provide Daniel Jones with a four-year $160 million contract ($40 million/year).? On the other hand, despite Saquon Barkley’s irrefutable Annual Value, the Giants chose against signing him to a long-term commitment (precluding Aggregate Value), and also used the tag to bind him to a one-year contract at slightly in excess of $10 million, a deflated annual value.

2021: Jonathan Taylor or Carson Wentz (former #2 overall pick and out of NFL)

Before the 2021 season, the aforementioned Colts owner, Jim Irsay, authorized GM Chris Ballard to trade a conditional 1st round draft pick and a 3rd round draft pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for quarterback Carson Wentz, who was earning upwards of $20 million and coming fresh off the 2020 season where he was one of the worst performing quarterbacks in the league.

In 2021, Jonathan Taylor had a spectacular 2nd season.? He led the NFL in rushing with 1,811 rushing yards, led the league with 2,171 total yards, and led the league in touchdowns with 20.? He was a Pro Bowl performer and came in 2nd in the voting for the A.P. Offensive Player of the Year—all while being paid on a 2nd round draft pick rookie contract.? Led primarily by running back Jonathan Taylor’s performance, the Colts’ record was 9 - 6, and it needed only one win in the last two games to make the playoffs.? Unfortunately, in large part due to the underperformance of $20 million a year quarterback Carson Wentz, the Colts lost the last two games of the regular season and missed the playoffs.? Carson Wentz was promptly traded to the Washington Commanders, lost his starting job last season, and is now no longer in professional football.????

2020:?? Derrick Henry - Offensive Player of the Year or journeyman Ryan Tannehill

In 2020, Derrick Henry, running back for the Tennessee Titans, rushed for a league leading 2027 yards and 17 touchdowns.? He was selected as the A.P. Offensive Player of the Year.? The Titans starting quarterback was (and still is) Ryan Tannehill.? Ryan has earned well in excess of $125 million in his ten-year NFL career.? He has never made an All-Pro team and has a career 2-3 playoff record, with both wins coming in the 2019 season based primarily upon the performance of running back Derrick Henry.?

In 2019, the Titans rode Derrick Henry’s back and advanced all the way to the AFC Conference Championship game, losing to the Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City Chiefs.? In the Titans two playoff wins leading up to the AFC Championship game, Derrick Henry rushed the ball for 182 and 195 yards, respectively, while Tanehill threw the ball 15 and 14 times for 72 and 88 yards, respectively.? Clearly, the vastly lesser paid Derrick Henry is and was far more valuable of a football player during the regular season and the playoffs than the highly paid quarterback Tannehill.

Derrick Henry had a stellar 2022 season, his 7th in the league, while quarterback Tannehill, with a $36 million salary cap hit, struggled.

Nick Chubb or Deshaun Watson?

Running back Nick Chubb has been a model of consistency and excellence since he entered the NFL.? He has rushed for over 1,000 yards each season of his give year career other than when he rushed for 996 yards as a rookie.? He has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry every season too.? His off-field and community involvement has been exemplary.?

Deshaun Watson is now the quarterback for the Browns.? He is the opposite of Nick Chubb. Deshaun Watson started his career playing for the Houston Texans. ?He won one playoff game.? He did not play during the 2021 season, based in part on allegations of sexual misconduct.? Nevertheless, the Browns traded three first round picks to the Texans and agreed to pay Deshaun Watson a fully guaranteed five-year/$230 million contract.? Deshaun was suspended a record 11 games by the NFL last season and $5 million based upon his alleged misconduct.? Deshaun played (poorly) the last six games of the season going 3-3.? Thus, the Browns received consistently excellent service from relatively low paid running back Nick Chubb, while it received a de minimis return on their hand chosen and scandal-ridden $46 million quarterback for the next four seasons.

2023 - Games 16 and 17 or the Playoffs – It’s Just About Business

The same incentives that drove the owners to tag, not extend, and/or sign elite free agent running backs to lowball and short-term contracts should cause such elite running backs to undertake actions to minimize the “wear and tear” that is causing them to have a shorter career and the owners to vastly undercompensate them, both annually and in the aggregate.? Practically all NFL players that have meaningful playing time have some degree of injury by late season.? Historically, the players play through the pain.? It is their mantra. Toughness, the team, and the game define them.? However, by and through the owners’ actions systemically depriving them from obtaining fair value for their services, elite running backs, in pursuing their own business interests, now must carefully consider whether to play in late season or playoff games or avoid and/or recover from injury and prepare for the next season or potential free agency and the next contract.? It is completely against Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard’s business interests to play late into the season irrespective of the team’s performance with actual free agency knocking at their door.? What about the playoffs?

Pursuant to the CBA, teams that franchise tag a player cannot negotiate a long-term deal with such player during the regular season.? However, they can negotiate after the completion of the regular season and before the playoffs.? As such, an elite super-valuable franchise-tagged running back like Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, and/or Josh Jacobs, assuming that the team makes the playoffs, could potentially not play another game without a long-term deal.? The prospect of a Dallas Cowboys v. New York Giants playoff game without Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley playing would cause fans to become livid and the teams and the league aghast.? However, based on the owners’ actions, it is completely against the players’ business interest to play if they have an injury or other legitimate basis not to play.? Such action by the elite running backs would surely cause a sea change in the owners’ thought process concerning the value of the running back position.?? Maybe they can just parrot GM Ballard’s comments when asked why they didn’t play in the biggest game of the year and just say “it is what it is.”

Precedent - College Football Bowl Games

It was only a few years ago that a few college football players tested the waters and decided not to play in a Bowl game in order to avoid potential injury and harm to their draft stock and NFL dream.? I know - I counseled several.? Now, the best college football players routinely decline to play in Bowl games.? The same principle applies to elite NFL running backs: the owners have disincentivized elite running backs from playing too much. When the elite running backs start hitting back and utilizing their leverage, they will either win the war and they will get paid what they deserve or the game will get diluted and the league and fans will suffer.

About the Author: David A. Gehn, Esq. is an attorney and a former NFLPA certified contract advisor. He is the Chairman of the Litigation Department at Ellenoff Grossman & Schole LLP, an approximately 125 attorney New York City based law firm. He also has an active practice representing professional athletes and his clients include many elite NFL players.

Disclaimer: This article only reflects the personal opinion of its author. The opinions and views contained in this article shall in no way reflect the opinions and views of Ellenoff Grossman & Schole LLP or any other persons or entities. Nothing contained in this article shall be construed as legal advice and should not be relied on in any manner. This article may be considered ATTORNEY ADVERTISING.