Eleven million unauthorized immigrants resided in the United States in 2022, fewer than in 2010

Republican vice-presidential candidate Senator JD Vance of Ohio claimed that 25 million unauthorized immigrants have entered the United States and that Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, is to blame. Harris “has flooded the country with 25 million illegal aliens,” Vance said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” which aired on September 12.

During an August 28 speech in Wisconsin, Vance claimed Harris “let in 25 million illegal aliens” and alleged 25 million people are currently “here in this country illegally.”

CNBC fact-checked these claims and found “Vance’s figure inflates the facts,” citing data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection and estimates from government agencies and other organizations.[1]

The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics in April 2024 estimated that 11 million unauthorized immigrants were?living in the United States?as of January 1, 2022.[2]

Th Department of Homeland Security report estimates two populations to derive the unauthorized immigrant population estimate: 1) the total foreign-born population living in the United States on January 1 of each year in the series, and 2) the legally-resident, foreign-born population on the same dates. The unauthorized immigrant population estimate is the residual when the second population is subtracted from the first population.

The size of the unauthorized immigrant population that arrived since 2010 declined by 280,000 from 2018 to 2020, then grew by 630,000 from 2020 to 2022.

The report estimated the number of unauthorized immigrant population that entered in 2020 at 1,680,000. By 2022, that number had grown to an estimated 2,310,000.[3]

Based on the 2022 American Community Survey for 2022, Pew Research Center’s estimate also placed the number of unauthorized immigrants at 11 million.[4]

The Pew researchers note that the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has likely grown over the past two years, based on several alternative data sources, including the?number of applicants waiting for decisions?on?asylum claims, which?increased by about 1 million by the end of 2023.

Through December 2023, about 500,000 new immigrants were paroled into the country through two federal programs – the Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan and Venezuelan (CHNV) and Uniting for Ukraine programs. Traditionally, such groups would have been considered part of the unauthorized immigrant population.?

Senator Vance’s figure of 25 million likely conflates these authorized migrants with those who have entered and remain in the United States unlawfully.

As of 2022,?unauthorized immigrants represented 3.3% of the total United States population, according to Pew Research Center. Vance’s figure of 25 million inflates the population of unauthorized immigrants to 7.25% of the U.S. population of 345 million (est. 2024), or 1 in 14 of everyone presently in the country. The true figure of unauthorized immigrants in America is closer to 1 in 30.

In a speech from his golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes, California, on September 14, former President Donald Trump pledged to conduct mass deportations of Haitian immigrants, even though the majority of them are in the United States legally.? Confusingly, he called for deporting Haitians “back to Venezuela.”[5]

The Biden administration initiated migrant deportation flights to Venezuela in October 2023.[6]

Recording 1.1 million deportations from October 2021 through February 2024, the Biden administration is on pace to match the 1.5 million deportations carried out during the four years President Donald Trump was in office.

Combining deportations with expulsions and other actions to block migrants without permission to enter the United States, nearly 4.4 million repatriations of migrants have taken place under President Biden, more than in any single presidential term since the George W. Bush administration repatriated 5 million in its second term in office.[7]

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[1] Kevin Breuninger (September 12, 2024). JD Vance repeats inflated immigration figures rejected by experts. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/vance-immigration-claim-harris-trump.html

[2] Office of Homeland Security Statistics (April 2024). Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2018–January 2022. ?https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-05/2024_0418_ohss_estimates-of-the-unauthorized-immigrant-population-residing-in-the-united-states-january-2018%E2%80%93january-2022.pdf

[3] Office of Homeland Security Statistics, Table 1, op cit.

[4]? Jeffrey S. Passel and Jens Manuel Krogstad (July 22, 2024). What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/

[5] Kathryn Watson (September 13, 2024). Trump says he would deport Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, "back to Venezuela. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-deport-haitian-migrants-springfield-ohio-to-venezuela/

[6] Alerie Gonzales and Regina Garcia (October 19, 2023). US resumes deportation flights to Venezuela with more than 100 migrants on board. Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-migrants-deportation-texas-biden-immigration-1115aa224f1fa79fb88bd991a8ed705a

[7] Muzaffar Chishti and Kathleen Bush-Joseph (June 17, 2024). The Biden Administration Is on Pace to Match Trump Deportation Numbers—Focusing on the Border, Not the U.S. Interior. Migration Policy Institute. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-deportation-record