The Elephants in The Room
The Elephants in The Room-- Trump, Floods and Pylons
The autumn of 2024 has brought a huge variety of events so far and I have also heard some serious impressive thought provoking speakers on what are vital topics. ? This has also been during the backdrop of some major events which have provided the thematic and strategic backdrops for activity to be undertaken.? There have been some strategic pauses while policy direction has been awaited and we have had some big moments ..
The Global Election Relay Race?
The General Election in The UK introduced a regime change, but the Elephant in the Room turned out to be the governments debt pile and how that might be addressed. That in turn led to the Budget being the next perceived potential cliff edge for policy which brought a significant pregnant pause in activity? The UK budget was finally delivered on October 30th and duly brought some clarity, but also some tax increases notably on national Insurance. We have been waiting for some clarity and then...
The Republican Elephant is back?
An even bigger Elephant then appeared, The Republican Party swept the US election and the elephant trumped the donkey. We now almost certainly have another pause whilst we await Inauguration day on January 20th as the new administration takes shape. We are still awaiting the full results from the House of Representatives to see if the republicans have a sweep. If there is one the administration probably needs to put its foot down before the mid-terms which could change the picture. All eyes on Tariffs and the IRA for policy change
Baton is handed to Germany
The collapse of the German Government seems to herald an election there, though this may take some time to put in place and looks a little untimely given the regime change in the US. More uncertainty and time to dust of my old university text book again . World Trade and Tariffs?
Another Elephant in the Room — Climate Impact - The floods
The Weather has also made an impression and delivered some shockers in 2024 and Flooding remains high on the local agenda. One does wonder whether we shall have another winter where the impacts ratchet up locally. Great recent discussions with Dr. Karabi Pathak Elena Maksimovich and Ling Sin Fai Lam, CFA who all had excellent value added themes to explore, and we can add CIVIC SQUARE (see below)
North Carolina and Hurricane Helene?
102 deaths with a number of others missing in North Carolina alone and the damage of over 50 billion (again in NC) . The images from the rain and impact in the the west of the state were astonishing, and whilst the warnings were well telegraphed for the like of Florida, which had multiple storm hits, the NC devastation raises questions over how much to spend to protect….?
The Rain in Spain didn’t stay mainly on the plain?-Dana -- All Kinds of Everything
Valencia,, triggered by? DANA with a very high death toll . The storms concentrated over the Magro, Turia and the Poyo river basins. DANA (the spanish one) — a Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos (DANA),a Spanish phrase that translates to isolated depression at high levels.
The Spanish storms followed ones in the South of France — an épisode méditerranéen.?The remnants of Hurricane Leslie left another trail of destruction with more issues.?
The UK has had its first seasons storm in Ashley (and a bit of local tree damage) and a couple of fabulous slides from the BE-ST presentation by CIVIC SQUARE given by Charlie Edmonds and Imandeep Kaur illustrates some localised things to consider in a Birmingham context
This certainly is worth closer look and repeated for ones own location
We are looking here at the bottom left (but clearly there are other impacts)
What we are really looking out for is the potential flood impact, as this has definitely accelerated at a local level in depth and intensity. Low lying houses are taking more measures and after the flood defences in Hawick costing ￡90m have been installed, we definitely would like more investment at the head of the rivers to slow down the speed of run off.? Watch this space for the localised reports..
The bigger question is how can we address the increased risk for Communities of all shapes and sizes, and can there be better forecasting and communication to convey what might happen. Over to AI and Climate modelling one suspects, and there is also a need for commercial decisions to be made on Insurance provision and availability. There is even less reason to build on flood plains.? (Should we have more vertical farming to reposition some of the farm acreage that seems almost permanently impacted in 2024.
Energy Policy and the transition.? Another elephant has arrived ?
Pylons take centre stage as the Spine of Britain takes shape, and they increasingly trigger the biggest debates, and tend to?be the focal point for a heated discussion,
There are various hot spots in the UK that are potentially emerging with a combination of infrastructure at various points in the planning process. What we have been lacking is a Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP) and not before time that does seem to be appearing.?
Perhaps unsurprisingly my local area seems to be at the centre of a major storm,,,
The combination of Pylons , Turbines and Storage can be potent if the engagement starts off on the wrong foot. The Preferred Route in my local area was selected by Scottish Power before the communities were initially engaged. That was not the right approach, and created a torrent of criticism and some of the planned route looks set to be amended already. This will rage for several years. There are a number of potential wind farms along the route and this certainly has stimulated further debate on the “just transition”.?Our area has the second highest energy prices in the UK, which seems inherently wrong and pours more fuel on the fire.
The documents in the link below are being mirrored elsewhere in the UK as the transmission debate gets underway,?
Clean Power 2030 .. The NESO view —worth a read?as its sets how fast the pace may have to be (unattainably so? )
A couple of charts from the very effective Emma Fletcher MRICS at Octopus shows where the consumer could fit into this and a potentially disruptive approach to the incumbents.
Simply put this is the shift
The zonal price debate is one example where Octopus is rattling the cage and its joining the consumer into the discussions to shape the solutions better than is being done currently is the right way ahead.
Can we Herd the Elephants and avoid the "Rogues" ?
A pretty strong message for BEtter Collaboration for a strong and coordinated response.
Philip Kerr
Director
Westerhayes Impact Advisory
E&P analyst and company director
2 周Great commentary philip kerr and v thought provoking from a political, climate and indeed planning perspective