Electricity consumption usage changes and the impacts during the COVID-19 Pandemic - Part 5

Welcome to part 5 of my mini series of bitesize nuggets, today's article looks at post pandemic cost/consumption forecasting.

The current pandemic will have caused an impact to the electricity expected consumption usage and costs for several businesses. The previous articles will hopefully have helped manage these during the pandemic but what to look out for after your business's return to normal.

Consumption forecasting

Forecasting your future consumption usage is imperative to assist with budgeting as well as ensuring you are trading the correct amount on your fixed/flex contracts. When forecasting the usage for future periods the last 12 months' worth of actual usage is normally used and rolled forward mapping any special days (bank holidays, standard shutdown periods). However the pandemic will have meant a prolonged period of unusual usage behaviour and as such it is imperative to work with your supplier/third party intermediate or an energy expert to ensure the forecast excludes these periods and replaced with a better view of a standard usage pattern. This may be the same period in 2019 or has your business's usage pattern dramatically changed post pandemic.

Cost forecasting

Cost forecasts/budgets can come in many forms from a simple x% increase from last year to a bottom up by site/cost element. Keeping on top of your electricity cost forecast is an important part of your business and can be quite complex, adding the pandemic period in to the mix makes it slightly more difficult. By ensuring the consumption forecasting is as accurate as possible this should naturally lead into the best view of your business's cost forecast for the future periods. There are a lot of information readily available on electricity costs but also get assistance from your supplier/third party intermediate/energy expert if you require assistance.

The main thing to remember if this period of electricity consumption/cost is not the normal for your business is it in your best interest to use it for future period forecasting or tender analysis...

I hope you have found my mini series useful and keep an eye out for future articles.

Part 1 - Importance of actual consumption on your invoice

Part 2 - Actual v Forecast Consumption Variance

Part 3 - Reforecasting on Power Flex

Part 4 - Imbalance and Shape

If you would like further information on please feel free to contact me on:

[email protected]

07908 420 020.