Electric vehicles: The road to 2030.
As part of the UK’s 2050 net zero target, the government announced the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles will be banned from 2030, with all new cars and vans transitioning to zero emission vehicles (ZEV) by 2035. Unsurprisingly, this had led to increased interest in electric vehicles (EV) ahead of the ban, with a 64% increase in licensed plug-in vehicles on UK roads between September 2021 and 2022(1). So, what does the road to 2030 look like for EVs, and how will this impact the energy industry?
Why electric vehicles?
There are a wide range of benefits to EV when compared to petrol and diesel vehicles.
However, it is important to bear in mind that not all electric vehicles produce zero emissions whilst driving. There are several categories of EV: zero emission vehicles (ZEV), ultra low emission vehicles (ULEV), and hybrid vehicles. Hybrid vehicles are not fully electric, they also have a combustion engine that produces harmful emissions by burning fossil fuels. ZEV and ULEV are predominantly fully electric (plug-in) vehicles, but any low carbon emitting vehicle technology could qualify.?
ZEV produce no harmful emissions at all, and can include hydrogen battery powered vehicles which produce water as a byproduct. ULEV are vehicles that produce a very small amount of harmful emissions - less than 75g of CO2 per kilometre. In most cases, ULEV benefit from the same incentives and tax reductions as ZEV.
Electric vehicles are not the only technology that is being invested in on the journey to meet 2030 ZEV targets. The government is taking a technology neutral approach, with investment in hydrogen technologies as well. However, battery-powered EV are currently the dominant type of ZEV, with hydrogen technology predicted to be most effective for heavier transport applications (such as lorries and planes)(3).
What will UK roads look like in 2030?
At the end of 2022 there were around 1 million electric vehicles registered in the UK, making up around 2.5% of all registered vehicles(4). That figure is expected to climb dramatically, with Ofgem estimating that we could see around 14 million EV being on the road by 2030(5). This is set to increase exponentially after the ban is implemented, hitting around 37.4 million EV by 2050 according to the National Grid ESO(6).?
Such a massive and sudden uptake will radically change our thinking around transport. The public charging point infrastructure is already established, and ever expanding. Options to refuel at home and at work will become more common with increasing home and workplace charger installations. Reliance on electricity will increase as we cut out fossil fuels. Even the sound of our roads will change as the combustion engine is phased out, changing our relationship to traffic awareness and safety.
How will EV affect electricity demand?
One of the biggest impacts of the switch to EV, outside of reducing carbon emissions, is the effect it is projected to have on electricity consumption. Driving an EV for a year uses power roughly equivalent to 75% of the average household's total annual electricity use(7). As EV uptake increases, so too will national electricity demand. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) estimates that electric cars and vans will lead to a 30 TWh increase in electricity demand by 2030(8). To put that in perspective, the UK currently has a system-wide electricity demand of around 300TWh(9) - meaning EV could increase demand by 10% of today’s total electricity consumption in the UK.
Preparing for 2030 - renewable solutions.
We are already seeing changes to pave the way for the anticipated demands on our electricity network. The government has set targets to expand annual UK wind energy capacity to 50GW by 2030, as part of plans to decarbonise the energy industry by 2035(10). Investing in greater supply of renewable energy could help to accommodate increasing electricity demand from EV. Additionally, home solar installations can be connected to EV chargers, not only saving EV owners money but reducing their individual electricity demand. Therefore, investing in renewable energy solutions for homes and businesses could reduce cost, carbon, and demand within the transport sector, as well as residential and business.
Another key strategy to help mitigate electricity demand and cost is smart charging. This is where EV owners use off-peak hours to charge their vehicles - avoiding excessive strain on the grid and better utilising renewable energy sources. We have already seen the benefits of smart energy behaviours in action during the National Grid’s Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), in which 144,878 E.ON Next customers participated. The DFS avoided 3,300MWh of peak-time electricity use over 22 events across the UK through changes to energy habits by residential and business consumers(11). Ofgem have been granted a range of regulatory powers to encourage smart charging behaviours for EV owners in the run up to 2030.??
How E.ON Next is helping the transition.
It isn’t just the government that is leading the charge to smarter energy. At E.ON Next we have already launched our own Next Drive EV tariff to help customers save money by charging off-peak at lower electricity prices. As a business at the heart of the energy industry it is our responsibility to pave the way ready for EV as part of our commitment to helping the UK meet its 2030 targets.
Change is coming. If you want to get a head start, why not consider installing EV charging stations at your workplace or for personal use at home? Embrace the EV revolution and help the UK reduce emissions on the road to net zero.