Electric cars: Information "Gaps"

We all want to minimize our negative impact on the planet, but not if it greatly impacts our daily lives.

Electric cars are a piece of the fossil fuel reduction puzzle that still leaves many questions unanswered, at least for me. Despite digging through research and data, I still can’t find a straightforward answer to some questions.

Millions of phased-out vehicles and their environmental impact

Until now, used vehicles operated in a circular economy—you buy a new car, trade it in after a few years, and it passes on to another owner. Others reach the end of their life but still have parts that can be reused, and eventually, even the materials are recycled.

What we're aiming to do now is rapidly push towards new models that aren’t compatible with current production, models that no one will want to buy because they’ll be restricted. So, these cars won’t change hands, nor will their parts be of any use.

What’s going to happen to these millions of vehicles?

Will the environmental impact they have outweigh the benefits of this rapid change?

Who's measuring this impact, and what will be done about it?

Transition from fossil fuels to electric power

As of the latest 2020 data, 308 million vehicles in the EU are running on fossil fuels (European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA).

Using the following data, we calculated the total energy these vehicles would need if they were electric:

- Average Distance per Vehicle: Let’s stick with the average of 12,000 kilometers per year.

- Energy Consumption of EVs: Assuming an average consumption of 18 kWh per 100 kilometers.

Given that the EU’s electricity consumption was about 2,900 TWh in 2020, if all vehicles in the European Union were switched to electric, they would need approximately 665.28 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually. This would increase the current electricity consumption in the EU by about 22.94%.

First questions: How much would it cost to upgrade the European electrical grid to support this consumption?

Who's responsible for doing it?

Considering the goal for 2030 is around 40% of cars to be electric, what steps have already been taken and at what cost?

To better understand the magnitude of this challenge, let’s calculate how many nuclear plants would be needed:

To meet the additional electricity demand of 665.28 terawatt-hours (TWh), about 76 nuclear power plants would be necessary, each with a capacity of 1 GW and an average annual output of 8.76 TWh. This calculation highlights the substantial energy infrastructure required to support a complete transition to electric vehicles across the EU.

Considering the EU is moving in the opposite direction, let's consider wind and solar power:

- Average Capacity of a Wind Turbine: We'll consider a modern utility-scale wind turbine with a capacity of about 3 megawatts (MW).

To generate the additional 665.28 terawatt-hours (TWh) required for all electric vehicles in the European Union, about 72,329 modern utility-scale wind turbines would be needed. Each turbine would have a capacity of 3 megawatts (MW) and operate with a 35% capacity factor, producing about 0.009198 TWh annually.

More questions:

How many have been implemented in the last four years?

What are the costs?

Who is responsible, and who pays?

- Panel Capacity: Industrial solar panels typically have higher wattage. Let’s assume an average capacity of about 400 watts per panel, which is common for larger, more efficient panels used in industrial settings.

To generate the additional 665.28 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity required for the European Union's transition to electric vehicles, approximately 1.386 billion industrial solar panels (each with a capacity of 400 watts and producing about 480 kWh per year) would be needed.

Even more questions:

Do these numbers make this option unfeasible?

How many have been implemented in the last four years?

What are the costs?

Who is responsible, and who pays?

General rise in energy prices

Returning to basic economics, we're talking about an exponential increase in demand that, as the numbers suggest, is unlikely to be met by supply.

What will the result be?

A general increase in energy prices?

Restriction of vehicle circulation to avoid overloads?

Even if the investment in infrastructure is made, which will amount to billions.

Who pays?

Citizens through higher taxes?

Or will it be reflected in the price of vehicles and electricity in all sectors?

Regarding batteries...

Batteries and their recycling is another topic seldom discussed; there are no concrete answers. There's talk of creating a waste-free circular economy, but who is actually practicing this? Is it already planned in Europe? Who are the responsible parties? What are the costs?

Vague responses from the EU

The EU’s response to some of these questions is intended, and often, it involves shifting the burden of responsibility onto the consumers, notably by forcing the use of public transportation, requiring a reduction in energy consumption, and other considerations that are nearly fantastical.

The basics are simple: if we transition from fossil fuels to electric power too quickly, we will create serious economic problems in a Europe that has been spiraling economically for decades. Perhaps the solution is to lower expectations and goals and think about people first, betting on innovation to create energy production alternatives that can, over time, respond to a feasible transition.