Electric Car Supremacy, Carbon Markets, US Clean Power, Sustainable Aviation & Cooper Miners.

Hi, welcome to the 7th edition of?The Race to NetZero?Newsletter, a monthly round-up of the best research and news from?BloombergNEF.

The analyst team was pretty busy this month, below is a selection of research and article made public for you to enjoy.

The Road to Electric Car Supremacy in Five Charts

California’s 2035 ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles is yet another nail in the coffin for the internal combustion engine. As policy makers step up, automakers shift strategy and consumer appetite grows, the future of our cars is looking increasingly electric.

There are risks ahead, namely being able to successfully scale up battery and electric vehicle manufacturing to bring down costs, ensure there is sufficient supply of critical metals, and build out charging infrastructure.

Still, the initial stages of the EV revolution have already seen annual sales rise sixfold over the past five years and, as things currently stand, the upward trajectory is set to continue through to 2050.

Here are five charts from BloombergNEF showing the ascendancy of EVs.

1. On track for another record year

2. Tesla is at the front of the pack

3. A higher gear is needed to reach net zero

4. The growing adoption gap is a roadblock

5. Charging infrastructure is key

View Full article here

The Untapped Power of Carbon Markets in Five Charts

More countries are recognizing the value of putting a price on carbon as a means to achieving their climate goals. Close to a fifth of global emissions are now covered by a so-called compliance-based carbon market, up from just 5% a decade ago.

But while support for carbon markets is growing, mass adoption is still a long way off, with many of the world’s largest emitters remaining on the sidelines. Prices and ambition also need to be raised for these market mechanisms to play a substantial role in the shift to a greener future.

On the voluntary side, carbon offsets are gaining traction as corporations hunt for ways to neutralize their emissions, although the market remains hampered by oversupply and questions over credibility. Still, stricter regulation could enable voluntary carbon markets to take off in the coming decades and address any residual emissions that cannot be abated through other means.

Here are five charts from BloombergNEF on the untapped potential of global carbon markets.

1. Compliance markets broaden their horizons

2. More ambition is needed for real impact

3. Higher prices are needed

4. Voluntary markets gain momentum

5. The next great commodity market?

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US States Aiming for 100% Clean Power Total 22

As many as 22 states in the US have a target for 100% renewable energy or 100% carbon-free electricity.?The latter includes any zero-emissions resource such as nuclear and carbon capture plants.

State policies complement federal policies in boosting renewables. Over 30 states have Renewable Portfolio Standards — targets set at a state level that can ensure wind and solar build in a way that federal incentives can’t. “If these state mandates are met, US renewable generation will grow by an estimated 82% through 2030,”?Nathalie Limandibhratha, BloombergNEF US power markets analyst wrote in?US Renewable Portfolio Standards – Adding 82% to Demand.

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2022 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are one of few low-carbon technologies with the potential to help decarbonize the aviation sector and are the only feasible option in the near term.

For the nascent SAF industry, 2022 has been a pivotal year as growth in the market picks up pace. Key policies to boost adoption are progressing through their respective legislatures. The number of forward purchase agreements have surged as airlines demonstrate their commitment to the clean fuel, and new projects boost anticipated production capacity.

But hurdles remain, namely scarcity of supply, competition with renewable diesel for resources and lack of technological diversification. If unaddressed, these will lead to substantial bottlenecks and could cause the aviation industry to fall short of its ambitious goals. This research note presents the key themes shaping the sector and its outlook to 2030.

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Copper Miners Eye M&A as Clean Energy Drives Supply Gap

Copper miners are looking to bolster their assets as they recognize the energy transition will drive up demand for the red metal. Target companies are not giving in easily, however, with Turquoise Hill Resources recently rejecting a ￡2.7 billion offer from Rio Tinto, and OZ Minerals rebuffing a $5.6 billion bid from BHP.

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Best Regards, Saludos, Cordialement

Guillaume