Electorate Seats with Minor Party Potential

By Milla Batten

Commentators have labelled the 2023 Election a ‘minor party election’ with the minor parties on both sides of the spectrum snatching voters away from Labour and National. This minor party revival indicates a return to how MMP is designed to function, with Labour’s 2020 super majority looking to be a blip in the history books.??

What does this minor party revival mean for electorate seats? Below I have listed some key electorates in which minor party candidates are challenging the traditional red/blue dynamic.

A win in these seats could be the difference between being in Parliament or not for Te Pāti Māori and The Opportunities Party (TOP), with current polling showing neither will reach the 5% party vote threshold.??

Auckland Central??

Incumbent MP Chl?e Swarbrick won the seat in the 2020 Election. Contesting Auckland Central again, current polling indicates it will again be a tight race. National’s Auckland Central Candidate, Mahesh Muralidhar polled just 2% behind Swarbrick at 24% and 26%, respectively in a Taxpayers Union-Curia poll.??

Source: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/election-2023/498824/national-s-muralidhar-nipping-at-swarbrick-s-heels-in-auckland-central-electorate-poll?

Wellington Central?

The Wellington Central seat is a unique electorate this election because no incumbent is contesting the seat. Grant Robertson, the current Wellington Central MP (Labour), is running on the party list only this election, as is James Shaw (Greens) who traditionally ran in the seat. Similarly, Nicola Willis (National) has switched to contest the?ōhāriu?electorate.??

Current polling shows that the National (Scott Sheeran), Labour (MP Ibrahim Omer) and Greens (Tamatha Paul) candidates are within a couple of percentage points of each other. Omer led the Newshub Nation poll at 30.6%, followed by Sheeran (28%) and Paul (26.6%).??

Read more: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/16-09-2023/poll-wellington-central-on-a-knife-edge-with-three-candidates-almost-tied?

Tāmaki

Brooke van Velden, ACT party deputy leader, is a strong challenger to incumbent MP Simon O’Connor (National) in Tāmaki this election. While O’Connor has held the seat for years, the ACT candidate is polling well. In a Taxpayers Union-Curia poll, van Velden has 33% support, just two points behind O’Connor on 35%.??

Read more: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-act-partys-brooke-van-velden-hot-on-nats-simon-oconnors-heels-in-tamaki-electorate-poll/W45X53OQOJFCJPZJD62DDBNFEE/?

Hauraki-Waikato??

Te Pāti Māori, while not polling at the 5% party vote threshold, has a strong chance to win many of the Māori electorates this election. This could cause quite an upset for the traditionally safe Labour seats, including ousting current Minister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta (Labour) in the Hauraki-Waikato seat.??

Fourth on the party list, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke (Te Pāti Māori) is a strong challenger to the incumbent. A Whakaata Māori poll puts Maipi-Clarke just 4% behind Mahuta at 32% and 36%, respectively.??

A win for Te Pāti Māori in this seat would be historic, unseating New Zealand’s longest-continuously serving female MP and electing the youngest MP for 170 years.??

?Source: https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/04/nanaia-mahuta-in-danger-of-losing-electorate-poll-shows/?

?Ikaroa-Rāwhiti??

After her shock defection to Te Pāti Māori, Meka Whaitiri the former Labour Minister is running a strong campaign to hold her seat, albeit under a different party’s banner. However, Labour’s new candidate Cushla Tangaere-Manuel is polling ahead, with many commentators picking it to be a close race between the two.??

A Wakaata Māori poll from two weeks ago put Tangaere-Manuel (33%) above the incumbent (25%), with an eight-point lead. However, the poll also indicated that 29% of voters were still undecided meaning that Te Pāti Māori could still flip the seat in their favour.??

Read more: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/a-game-of-two-halves-in-ikaroa-rawhiti-as-labour-voters-stays-faithful-whakaata-maori-poll/VGQ6IRNWFVH2TJZ7GQY3Z6QAWE/?

Te Tai Hauāuru??

Co-leader of Te Pāti Māori, Debbie Ngarewa Packer is seeking to re-enter Parliament as an electorate MP this election, after being brought in on the list after Rawiri Waititi’s Waiariki win in 2020.??

Labour MP and Speaker of the House Adrian Rurawhe won the Te Tai Hauāuru seat in 2020 but is running on the party list only this election. In his place, Labour is running Sorya Peke-Mason, a list MP. Ngarewa Packer narrowly lost the seat last election to Rurawhe, with another close election between the Labour and Te Pāti Māori candidates this election.??

Polling from mid-September indicated that the Labour candidate held a small lead over Ngarewa-Packer in the seat, at 34% and 29%, respectively.??

Source: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/498335/labour-te-pati-maori-in-tight-race-for-te-tai-hauauru ?

Ilam??

After an upset in 2020, when the traditionally blue seat turned red, electing Sarah Pallett, Ilam looks as though it will have yet another change in MP this election. While the polls currently favour the National candidate (Hamish Campbell) to take the win, TOP candidate and party leader Raf Manji is running a high-visibility campaign to win the seat. According to a Taxpayers Union-Curia poll from two weeks ago, Campbell sat at 33% of the vote, while Maji held just 14%.??

Recently, the TOP leader has called on Christopher Luxon to make a deal similar to the arrangement ACT and National formerly held regarding the Epsom seat (to not run a National candidate). This arose out of Luxon’s comments regarding his reluctance to work with New Zealand First after the election. However, Luxon has ruled out making any such deal with TOP.??

?Source: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496841/christchurch-s-ilam-electorate-swings-back-to-national-according-to-latest-poll?

To everyone watching the results roll in - have fun, and don't forget to vote!

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